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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:56 pm 
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Dog wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Dog wrote:
Nice to see Kay starting the year well. Alonso could surpass Smith on the depth chart if Smith isn't careful, though Alonso is a butcher at 1B, right?



18 errors in less than half a season of games played last season.


Sam from The Brady Bunch. :)


Worth noting his error rate (errors/inning) is down 27% over 105 innings so far this year. Not the perfect measure, but it's something. RF and FPCT are up (again, small sample size).


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:40 pm 
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Is Kay projected as a back of the rotation starter? How high does he project? What do you think, Metro, assuming health?


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:33 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:59 pm 
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Dog wrote:
Is Kay projected as a back of the rotation starter? How high does he project? What do you think, Metro, assuming health?


Kind of hard to say, being as he might have been pitching hurt prior to being drafted, but below are some of the writeups we got at draft time. If he's closer to 95 than 90 that obviously changes the dynamic a bit.

tejdog1 wrote:
The University of Connecticut has produced some excellent pro talent, headlined by George Springer, Nick Ahmed and Matt Barnes. Kay, the Huskies' Friday night starter, could be the next in line. Kay fits the mold of the advanced pitchability college lefty, one with a track record of success, not only at UConn, but also in the Cape Cod League in 2014 and with Team USA in 2015. Kay succeeds by filling the strike zone and keeping hitters guessing, albeit with the lack of a true out pitch. He'll top out at 94-95 mph with his fastball, though he pitches more effectively at around 91 mph. He has a consistently reliable changeup, though he telegraphs it at times by lowering his arm slot. His breaking ball is fringy. College performers like Kay tend to do well on Draft day. He could be seen as a poor man's Mark Buehrle type, one who could perhaps add a cutter at the next level to give him a four-pitch mix, helping him to be a quick to the big leagues back-end starter.


It'sOuttaHere wrote:
MLB #43
Quote:
School: Connecticut Year: Junior Position: LHP Age: 21 DOB: 3/21/1995 Bats: L Throws: L Height: 5' 11" Weight: 186 lb.
Previously Drafted: 2013, 29th (866) - NYM
VIDEO
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50
The University of Connecticut has produced some excellent pro talent, headlined by George Springer, Nick Ahmed and Matt Barnes. Kay, the Huskies' Friday night starter, could be the next in line.

Kay fits the mold of the advanced pitchability college lefty, one with a track record of success, not only at UConn, but also in the Cape Cod League in 2014 and with Team USA in 2015. Kay succeeds by filling the strike zone and keeping hitters guessing, albeit with the lack of a true out pitch. He'll top out at 94-95 mph with his fastball, though he pitches more effectively at around 91 mph. He has a consistently reliable changeup, though he telegraphs it at times by lowering his arm slot. His breaking ball is fringy.

College performers like Kay tend to do well on Draft day. He could be seen as a poor man's Mark Buehrle type, one who could perhaps add a cutter at the next level to give him a four-pitch mix, helping him to be a quick to the big leagues back-end starter.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:06 pm 
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Dog wrote:
Is Kay projected as a back of the rotation starter? How high does he project? What do you think, Metro, assuming health?



Not the biggest guy so in that way you have to question the overall upside until proven otherwise (or if this "new stuff" is sustainable) but he looked like a safe "4" starter stuff-wise he's sounding more and more like a maybe mid-rotation ie upside of a good 3. He was flawed but I think we'd all sign for Niese in his prime.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:20 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Dog wrote:
Is Kay projected as a back of the rotation starter? How high does he project? What do you think, Metro, assuming health?



Not the biggest guy so in that way you have to question the overall upside until proven otherwise (or if this "new stuff" is sustainable) but he looked like a safe "4" starter stuff-wise he's sounding more and more like a maybe mid-rotation ie upside of a good 3. He was flawed but I think we'd all sign for Niese in his prime.


I'm fine with having a pitcher like that when you're paying him the minimum, but I think our perception is a bit off when it comes to Jon Niese's place in a major league rotation, even in his prime. He only had two years where his ERA+ was above 100, and one of those years - 2014 - it was only 101. I think you want a little better than painfully average from a good number three, but perhaps my expectations are too high relative to what most teams in the league are sending out there three out of every five days.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:45 pm 
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Cola game rained out. They will play 2 tmrw.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:49 pm 
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northway wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Dog wrote:
Is Kay projected as a back of the rotation starter? How high does he project? What do you think, Metro, assuming health?



Not the biggest guy so in that way you have to question the overall upside until proven otherwise (or if this "new stuff" is sustainable) but he looked like a safe "4" starter stuff-wise he's sounding more and more like a maybe mid-rotation ie upside of a good 3. He was flawed but I think we'd all sign for Niese in his prime.


I'm fine with having a pitcher like that when you're paying him the minimum, but I think our perception is a bit off when it comes to Jon Niese's place in a major league rotation, even in his prime. He only had two years where his ERA+ was above 100, and one of those years - 2014 - it was only 101. I think you want a little better than painfully average from a good number three, but perhaps my expectations are too high relative to what most teams in the league are sending out there three out of every five days.



Jon Niese 2.7 fWAR 2 seasons, 4 seasons of 2+ fWAR. I think any reasonable person would take that from Kay and run with it. Also Niese was oft-injured but 2011-2014 Niese was 48th in fWAR amongst starters despite only throwing 678 innings (169.5 per season), 46th in FIP. Considering there are 30 teams, and in theory 150 SP's, Niese was by most realistic measures a top 1/3 SP in baseball for a 4 year run. If Kay can give them that in the right time of their "run" that's a big time value.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:06 pm 
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And if Kay makes it onto any top 100 lists the end of this season, most would not be satisfied with an outcome similar to Niese. I'm not saying Kay will be a perennial all-star but it's a much different profile. Niese barely touched 90 and so his 4 or 5 year run was prob somewhat near the optimum output for his level. If Kay were to continue to dominate as he climbs the ladder, there would be significantly higher expectations, and 'a Niese outcome' would prob be closer to the 50 percentile projection.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:54 pm 
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Wow, StLucie game also rained out. They will play 2 tmrw also.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:37 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
northway wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:


Not the biggest guy so in that way you have to question the overall upside until proven otherwise (or if this "new stuff" is sustainable) but he looked like a safe "4" starter stuff-wise he's sounding more and more like a maybe mid-rotation ie upside of a good 3. He was flawed but I think we'd all sign for Niese in his prime.


I'm fine with having a pitcher like that when you're paying him the minimum, but I think our perception is a bit off when it comes to Jon Niese's place in a major league rotation, even in his prime. He only had two years where his ERA+ was above 100, and one of those years - 2014 - it was only 101. I think you want a little better than painfully average from a good number three, but perhaps my expectations are too high relative to what most teams in the league are sending out there three out of every five days.



Jon Niese 2.7 fWAR 2 seasons, 4 seasons of 2+ fWAR. I think any reasonable person would take that from Kay and run with it. Also Niese was oft-injured but 2011-2014 Niese was 48th in fWAR amongst starters despite only throwing 678 innings (169.5 per season), 46th in FIP. Considering there are 30 teams, and in theory 150 SP's, Niese was by most realistic measures a top 1/3 SP in baseball for a 4 year run. If Kay can give them that in the right time of their "run" that's a big time value.


Baseball Ref isn't nearly as kind to him. He had 1 3.3 war season, one 1.6 and everything else below 1. He had only 1 year with a wins above replacement over 0.2

He also struggled with innings as I recall. I'm not big on a Jon Niese upside. If he'd had a few more years like 2012 I'd feel different, but he had only 1 2012 season.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Minors 4/23/2018- Kay continues to deal
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:52 pm 
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Comparison time.

Pitcher 1:
45-45, 4.27 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 93 era+ 6.2 war
9.8 hits per 9, 3.0 walks, 5.0 Ks.
129 starts, 781 innings over 4 seasons.

Pitcher 2:
50-49, 3.79 ERA, 3.78 FIP, .98 era+, 6.7 war
9.4 hits per 9, 2.5 walks, 6.8 Ks
139 starts, 855 innings over 5 seasons.

- - -

Pitcher 2 is a bit better in ERA, FIP, walks, Ks, a tiny bit better in hits.

Pitcher 1 topped 200 innings twice, pitcher 2 never did that. Does the extra innings make up for the slightly worse stats? Pitcher 1 also averages slightly higher war per season.

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