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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 7:10 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
If Alonso ends up better that would be great, but shouldn't we find out about Dom now so we can give Alonso a taste of AAA, and Dom a full test at the ML level?

The thing I think we should ALL agree on is that A Gonzalez should not be taking time from either...and he is. Cut Gonzalez, promote Smith, promote Alonso. Re-evalate in August. Problem solved.


This is a fair argument. The problem is the "Who makes the team better now?" question and Alonso (righty power bat, bad glove) probably carries more value and use for this team than Dom, Gonzalez or Wilmer. Now, they might want to give him more time. They might wait for super-two, they might even wait till next year cause they have a full year before they need to put him on the 40, but if you look at who the best guy to win now, most signs point to Alonso.

If the mets were in a contest with the Marlins for last place, then you're 100% right. Looking at Dom now would make the most sense.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 7:21 pm 
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Alonso does not necessarily give them the best chance to win now. There's every reason to think he could struggle in his first chance at the majors coming up from AA. And from all reports he could hurt them defensively.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 7:35 pm 
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fWar has a positional component so that measure is less relevant when comparing to other teammates. On this team and in this lineup, AG hasn't been anywhere near a problem. As someone else mentioned, there are a bunch of bigger problems in the lineup. But let's move Bruce to 1B!!


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 7:48 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:
The problem is that this offense is so bad that you can't settle for mediocre performance from your first baseman.

And this is more important than below mediocre performance from SS, RF, CF and 3B?? There's a strange obsession at 1B relative to the size of the problem (small).

And when you figure another adjustment period that either young kid will take to get acclimated, there's likely a very small probability of outproducing AG.

I think if we see Dom this summer it's likely to be in a bench role as a LHed bat. Of course it would be a bigger role if AG goes down with an injury or really craters. I don't see the latter happening. Guy barrels baseballs.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 7:56 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
Alonso does not necessarily give them the best chance to win now. There's every reason to think he could struggle in his first chance at the majors coming up from AA. And from all reports he could hurt them defensively.


Adrian Gonzalez has been a shade over average so far, judging by OPS+. Smith hasn't been much better and that's playing in LV. His upside by all accounts is basically Adrian Gonzalez now, plus a little BA. Basically league average.

Alonso may flop like Smith did, but he also has a chance to be a middle of the order guy who can ignite a lineup. Gonzalez and Smith don't. So its a gamble on upside. I don't think the Mets are good enough offensively to not take that gamble.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 7:58 pm 
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AG has been hitting a soft .300 in May.

It doesn't matter where our debate goes. We don't make the decisions, but is rather see either Don or Alonso than Gonzalez. I think both would out produce AG given the time.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:31 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
Alonso does not necessarily give them the best chance to win now. There's every reason to think he could struggle in his first chance at the majors coming up from AA. And from all reports he could hurt them defensively.


He probably gives them the best chance to win now. He has the highest probability of being an immediate impact player. Nothing against Dom, who I like, but I think the odds are clearly with Alonso. There's never any guarantees, but I think the odds are with Alonso.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:38 pm 
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There nothing to back that up but your opinion. There’s no way to project Alonso being an impactful ML bat NOw


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:43 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
piazzafan wrote:
The problem is that this offense is so bad that you can't settle for mediocre performance from your first baseman.

And this is more important than below mediocre performance from SS, RF, CF and 3B?? There's a strange obsession at 1B relative to the size of the problem (small).

And when you figure another adjustment period that either young kid will take to get acclimated, there's likely a very small probability of outproducing AG.

I think if we see Dom this summer it's likely to be in a bench role as a LHed bat. Of course it would be a bigger role if AG goes down with an injury or really craters. I don't see the latter happening. Guy barrels baseballs.


Let's be honest, they are getting great production from Nimmo in CF, they will NOT bench Bruce no matter how bad he is and there is no team that's going to take him off their hands. Rosario is heating up, and Frazier has been decent at 3rd. The offense as a whole has been horrible and if you are going to catch lightning in a bottle 1B is the only place they can make a change.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 11:33 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
I don't even really know that "righty Lucas Duda" is an insult considering that may be an optimistic career outcome for Dom.


For the record, Duda hit 9 homers in 395 AB in AA at the same age as Alonso. Alonso has 13 in 159 AB. You're right, I don't even know if Dom will put up a career that'll match Duda at this point.

Alonso has a shot to be one of the best pure power hitters the Mets have ever developed. And yes, he is also a .300 hitter.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 12:13 am 
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TomInNC wrote:
There nothing to back that up but your opinion. There’s no way to project Alonso being an impactful ML bat NOw


There are no guarantees, but if the mets find themselves in a wild-card hunt, which looks less likely as time goes on, but if they do, between the 4 possible internal options at 1st - Alonso, Dom, Gozalez and Wilmer, and given the mets need for a rightly bat. I'm fairly certain that between 80% and 90% of us would say Alonso has the best chance of helping the team.

And you're flat out wrong to say there's NOTHING to back up that opinion. There's a .346 batting average, 32 walks and 13 home runs and elite exit velocity to back up my opinion. None of that is a guarantee, but there are reasons to think Alonso could help the team this year more than Dom or Gonzalez.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 12:23 am 
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dragonfly wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
I don't even really know that "righty Lucas Duda" is an insult considering that may be an optimistic career outcome for Dom.


For the record, Duda hit 9 homers in 395 AB in AA at the same age as Alonso. Alonso has 13 in 159 AB. You're right, I don't even know if Dom will put up a career that'll match Duda at this point.

Alonso has a shot to be one of the best pure power hitters the Mets have ever developed. And yes, he is also a .300 hitter.


Duda was a late bloomer though. Your quoting his 2009 season but he didn't really get going till 2010 when he hit .304 with 23 homers in 500 minor league PAs. That's why he was a 7th round pick. Duda's career 119 OPS+, lowish average (.242), 11% walk rate and solid power is a solid outlook. Not spectacular, but 119 OPS+ works for a first baseman, and it's a bit over 120 in his prime years, taking away his first season and recent struggles in the American league.

I think we hope for better than .120 OPS+ from Alonso, but I think it's a fair enough comparison until Alonso does better than that.

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