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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:05 pm 
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Paternostro and Siedler made this point on their podcast the other day, and I'll repeat it:

The gap in actual tools between, say, Lucas Duda and Paul Goldschmidt is very small (just talking hit and power). Duda is probably 45 hit/60 power, and Goldschmidt is probably 55 hit/70 power. But the difference in actual value there is huge -- Goldschmidt is a star and Duda is barely a starter at this point. Alonso could be 45/60, and he could be 55/70. It's too early to tell. But he has upside at the plate with his power that Smith just doesn't have, and unless Smith can get some power without selling out contact, Alonso will continue to be the better actual prospect even if scouts don't like Alonso's profile.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:14 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Paternostro and Siedler made this point on their podcast the other day, and I'll repeat it:

The gap in actual tools between, say, Lucas Duda and Paul Goldschmidt is very small (just talking hit and power). Duda is probably 45 hit/60 power, and Goldschmidt is probably 55 hit/70 power. But the difference in actual value there is huge -- Goldschmidt is a star and Duda is barely a starter at this point. Alonso could be 45/60, and he could be 55/70. It's too early to tell. But he has upside at the plate with his power that Smith just doesn't have, and unless Smith can get some power without selling out contact, Alonso will continue to be the better actual prospect even if scouts don't like Alonso's profile.

Alonso's hit seems to be at least on par with Smith's and a bit north of Duda's IMO. Nothing in 680+ minor league PAs would seem to indicate any differently. I would call him at least a 50 hit and 60/65 power. But of course it could deviate either way after he arrives.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:18 pm 
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I think that Alonso has definatley surpassed Smith as a prospect. But with that being said I think that they can both be dang good major league players.

I think the juiced baseball sort of clouds prospect evaluations now (I know you guys are getting sick of hearing about the juiced baseball from me). I think Ozzie Albies when he was a minor leaguer is the perfect comp to Dom Smith offensively. Albies was projected as a high average contact hitter that wasn't expected to have much power. Fast forward a year later and the kid is hitting homers all over the place. It's not out of the realm of possibility that with a contact approach Dom can smack 30 homers in the majors because of the juiced ball. The thing that hurts Smith is that he's a lefty with no speed so the shift is going to kill him. And for the record the shift should be illegal. The old narrative that the hitter should learn how to go the other way is nonsense. It's nearly impossible for these guys to knock an inside 95+ MPH fastball the other way. Only hitters with an elite hit tool can do that.

As for Alonso, elite bat speed + elite exit velocity + juiced ball = potential superstar. And I would say that Alonso can put up Aaron Judge type numbers once he settles into the majors.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:27 pm 
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Yes, that't the thing. Only 12 HR difference can be worth something like 1.5 WAR. It's really hard to make that up with small differences elsewhere. Ten points on the scouting scale for power is just worth more than it is on any other tool, especially defense at 1B.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:29 pm 
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Why isnt his hit tool near 55 or 60 at this point for Alonso, hits to all feilds with power, healthy babips, healthy iso, healthy career minor league average, K rate consistently under 20%, healthy BB%


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:29 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Paternostro and Siedler made this point on their podcast the other day, and I'll repeat it:

The gap in actual tools between, say, Lucas Duda and Paul Goldschmidt is very small (just talking hit and power). Duda is probably 45 hit/60 power, and Goldschmidt is probably 55 hit/70 power. But the difference in actual value there is huge -- Goldschmidt is a star and Duda is barely a starter at this point. Alonso could be 45/60, and he could be 55/70. It's too early to tell. But he has upside at the plate with his power that Smith just doesn't have, and unless Smith can get some power without selling out contact, Alonso will continue to be the better actual prospect even if scouts don't like Alonso's profile.

Alonso's hit seems to be at least on par with Smith's and a bit north of Duda's IMO. Nothing in 680+ minor league PAs would seem to indicate any differently. I would call him at least a 50 hit and 60/65 power. But of course it could deviate either way after he arrives.


Agreed that his hit definitely looks like it's ahead of Duda's, but hit is the hardest tool to scout and probably has the highest deviation from minors to majors. And it was just a statement on 1B profiles in general -- there's very little margin for error.

And, on the other side, low-power, high-hit profiles probably have even less margin for error, which is why you see so few of them. What's the favorable comp there? Hosmer? Belt?


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:30 pm 
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Dom Smith has not been good this season. Certainly not "he looks like an MLB starting 1b" good. Hopefully that changes.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:31 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Dom Smith has not been good this season. Certainly not "he looks like an MLB starting 1b" good. Hopefully that changes.


840 ops in AAA is ok...


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:35 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Paternostro and Siedler made this point on their podcast the other day, and I'll repeat it:

The gap in actual tools between, say, Lucas Duda and Paul Goldschmidt is very small (just talking hit and power). Duda is probably 45 hit/60 power, and Goldschmidt is probably 55 hit/70 power. But the difference in actual value there is huge -- Goldschmidt is a star and Duda is barely a starter at this point. Alonso could be 45/60, and he could be 55/70. It's too early to tell. But he has upside at the plate with his power that Smith just doesn't have, and unless Smith can get some power without selling out contact, Alonso will continue to be the better actual prospect even if scouts don't like Alonso's profile.

Alonso's hit seems to be at least on par with Smith's and a bit north of Duda's IMO. Nothing in 680+ minor league PAs would seem to indicate any differently. I would call him at least a 50 hit and 60/65 power. But of course it could deviate either way after he arrives.


Agreed that his hit definitely looks like it's ahead of Duda's, but hit is the hardest tool to scout and probably has the highest deviation from minors to majors. And it was just a statement on 1B profiles in general -- there's very little margin for error.

And, on the other side, low-power, high-hit profiles probably have even less margin for error, which is why you see so few of them. What's the favorable comp there? Hosmer? Belt?

But a cheap Carlos Santana or Hosmer type at 1B is valuable. That's why I think Dom prob has some market value.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:35 pm 
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johnnymets176 wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Dom Smith has not been good this season. Certainly not "he looks like an MLB starting 1b" good. Hopefully that changes.


840 ops in AAA is ok...


Ty Kelly, Matt den Dekker, and Guillorme have similar OPS's.

I can't wait for the AAA team to leave Vegas.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:43 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
johnnymets176 wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Dom Smith has not been good this season. Certainly not "he looks like an MLB starting 1b" good. Hopefully that changes.


840 ops in AAA is ok...


Ty Kelly, Matt den Dekker, and Guillorme have similar OPS's.

I can't wait for the AAA team to leave Vegas.

Again, I don't think this sort of thing is meaningful. When you filter out for age, he's doing fine in his peer group. And I don't think the long term forecast for Dom Smith changed at all bc of his first 180 ML PAs


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:48 pm 
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Guillorme is only 8 months older than Smith, not repeating the level, and his ISO is pretty similar to Smith's this season.

Vegas stats are just crazy. But Smith does need to find a balance between selling out for power (majors stint) and making a lot of contact (this season in AAA). If he can find that balance he'll find value.


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