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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 12:52 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:
I think that Alonso has definatley surpassed Smith as a prospect. But with that being said I think that they can both be dang good major league players.

I think the juiced baseball sort of clouds prospect evaluations now (I know you guys are getting sick of hearing about the juiced baseball from me). I think Ozzie Albies when he was a minor leaguer is the perfect comp to Dom Smith offensively. Albies was projected as a high average contact hitter that wasn't expected to have much power. Fast forward a year later and the kid is hitting homers all over the place. It's not out of the realm of possibility that with a contact approach Dom can smack 30 homers in the majors because of the juiced ball. The thing that hurts Smith is that he's a lefty with no speed so the shift is going to kill him. And for the record the shift should be illegal. The old narrative that the hitter should learn how to go the other way is nonsense. It's nearly impossible for these guys to knock an inside 95+ MPH fastball the other way. Only hitters with an elite hit tool can do that.

As for Alonso, elite bat speed + elite exit velocity + juiced ball = potential superstar. And I would say that Alonso can put up Aaron Judge type numbers once he settles into the majors.


No it shouldn't.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:34 pm 
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johnnymets176 wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Dom Smith has not been good this season. Certainly not "he looks like an MLB starting 1b" good. Hopefully that changes.


840 ops in AAA is ok...



Not really no. He's in the PCL... on his OWN team his rankings....(100 PA's or more)

wRC+ 4th
wOBA 4th
ISO 7th
HR's 7th
BA 3rd
OPS 7th

Sorry but he's been quietly quite bad for a guy you want to be a starting MLB 1b. No other way to spin it. If you think better production is coming, that's a whole other story.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:39 pm 
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It's certainly meaningful pointing to an .840 OPS and suggesting it's "okay" in the PCL. Guillorme has a higher OPS... the same Luis Guillorme MOCKED for his lack of power.. at MI! Among players 23 or younger in the PCL (and remember Dom is repeating the level, let's not forget that) he's still only 7th in wRC+ in the PCL and 9th in OPS. So it's not as if he's putting up "starting MLB 1b for his age" numbers.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 2:15 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Paternostro and Siedler made this point on their podcast the other day, and I'll repeat it:

The gap in actual tools between, say, Lucas Duda and Paul Goldschmidt is very small (just talking hit and power). Duda is probably 45 hit/60 power, and Goldschmidt is probably 55 hit/70 power. But the difference in actual value there is huge -- Goldschmidt is a star and Duda is barely a starter at this point. Alonso could be 45/60, and he could be 55/70. It's too early to tell. But he has upside at the plate with his power that Smith just doesn't have, and unless Smith can get some power without selling out contact, Alonso will continue to be the better actual prospect even if scouts don't like Alonso's profile.


Hey, I comped Alonso to Goldschmidt yesterday!

yalikeMetroplitans wrote:
Alonso comps...

Paul Goldschmidt:
3 MiLB seasons for both
PA .311/.391/.571/.962
PG .317/.407/.620/1.026

Kris Bryant:
In AA
PA .349/.447/.659/1.104 in 48 games
KB .355/.458/.702/1.160 in 68 games


Let's add Duda:
LD .285/.391/.450/.841 Over 2 seasons (157 games) in AA (plus 2 rehab games)
PA .349/.447/.659/1.104 in 48 games

Duda was older, as well. At this point, at least, Alonso is tracking way closer to PG and KB than Duda.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 2:26 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
It's certainly meaningful pointing to an .840 OPS and suggesting it's "okay" in the PCL.

No, it isn't if it's meant to imply that he's doing poorly. Because the 140 PAs is too small to be conclusive of anything. There is no predictive value in micro-analyzing a month of data which may not neatly match up with some projected trend line, esp at 22 years of age.

In 645 AAA PAs, Dom is 322/389/502 and 130 RC+ all before 23. He's still prob 2+ yrs younger than the PCL avg. There is nothing in what DS has done in the past 12 months than changes his long term forecast one bit. In fact, his current batted ball data indicates that he's trying to hit more balls in the air, so this is arguably an adjustment period. He's very much still a work in progress.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 3:25 pm 
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Let's not forget that Smith missed almost all of ST due to injury. That could partially explain a slow start.

Also, everybody needs to slow down with Alonso. If he comes up this year, then you're going to see something closer to the 2016 Aaron Judge than the 2017 Aaron Judge.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 5:15 pm 
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Too many promising first basemen is a GOOD problem to have.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 10:25 am 
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I don’t understand the rush to say smith is a bust he still is only 23, his knock was he doesn’t have power yet came up and displayed power but poor contact. Conforto in ur 2 was a “bust” and people wanted to get rid of him. Rosario is now a bust. It’s a long way to the hall of fame and I hope that both these guys have a great career but to label either a future star or a bust it’s just way too early let it play out.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 11:04 am 
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ndfordarling wrote:
I don’t understand the rush to say smith is a bust he still is only 23, his knock was he doesn’t have power yet came up and displayed power but poor contact. Conforto in ur 2 was a “bust” and people wanted to get rid of him. Rosario is now a bust. It’s a long way to the hall of fame and I hope that both these guys have a great career but to label either a future star or a bust it’s just way too early let it play out.


This. What Alonso is doing is really exciting, but let's not overlook the fact that Smith is younger and has already made the bigs whereas Alonso is still in AA. I'm going to sound like an old man, but the expectations for rookies seem crazy nowadays...


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 11:22 am 
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Exactly. I am not sure why we are ready to dispose of anyone.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 12:04 pm 
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Be patient with Smith in AAA, and it's still a pretty decent chance he might be a starting MLB first baseman two years from now. But it's fair to suggest that Alonso might be the better choice if you need one this year.

No need to make any long term decisions between the two, though. Smith won't be out of options until 2021. And these are two guys who could platoon at some point, if needed, as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 4:58 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
Be patient with Smith in AAA, and it's still a pretty decent chance he might be a starting MLB first baseman two years from now. But it's fair to suggest that Alonso might be the better choice if you need one this year.

No need to make any long term decisions between the two, though. Smith won't be out of options until 2021. And these are two guys who could platoon at some point, if needed, as well.


Actually if the Mets somehow do continue to contend this year, they might need to make a decision pretty quickly because Alonso and Dom are arguably their two best minor league trade chips.


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