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 Post subject: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:24 pm 
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Realistically...
--Release Reyes; Jettison Gonzalez; Delete Lobaton
--Demote Robles
--give Sewald a quick break; add Smith, Conlon as a pen guy, maybe Copeland in the pen/long man
-----Bruce/Vargas are going nowhere.

--Activate Cespedes and Thor.
--Wait on Flores, but Bautista/Bruce at first for moment.
--You could add McNeil and see what he can do, but only because Cecchini is on the shelf. I'd rather see McNeil get at bats to see if it is an anomoly start.

Nimmo CF
AsCab 2B
Conforto RF
Cespedes LF
Bautista/Bruce 1B
Frazier 3B
Mesoraco/Plaw C
Rosario SS
----------------------------------
Bench: Guillorme, Bruce, Plaw, McNeil (I'd prefer Cecchini's bat, and this is Wilmer's slot when he comes back anyhow)
-----------------------------------
Thor, deGrom, Matz (who has been great since May 1), Wheeler, Vargas (who has been solid last 4 starts.
-----------------------------------
Familia, Gsellman, Swarzak, Blevins, Lugo, Drew Smith, PJ Conlon, Copeland until Sewald rests up.


Then you evaluate whether or not to move AsCab and Familia at the deadline.

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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:44 pm 
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I don't see them in a rush to add McNeil when he'd come up and play off the bench. They'll maybe call him if Ascab is traded at the deadline, or in September, but I don't see it now.

Alonso could be called sooner . . . but I bet they wait for super-two.

Otherwise, I agree. You gotta keep fighting even 4 games under 500 this early in the season. A time will come to blow it up, but for now, it's all about trying to get back into the race. Bats need to start scoring more than 1 run a game though.

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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:41 pm 
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Agree with most of that. I'd keep Tim Peterson in the pen as well, though, ahead of Copeland or Smith. He's been the best pen arm in Vegas this year, with a 0.94 WHIP and 12.6:2.5 SO:BB. And has looked OK in his first few looks in MLB. Give him more innings.

They have enough RH relievers in the pipeline by now that it really is time to cut bait on Robles. He hasn't been that useful for some time now.

Thing is, a lot of the guys who have struggled are guys who I thought hadn't really made the team out of ST. I don't know why this FO is so slow to make decisions on some of these guys.


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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:08 pm 
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Actually, I forgot Peterson. I agree. Keep him and forget Copeland.

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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:03 pm 
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Practically A Wilpon

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Release Reyes.

Rotate Nimmo, Ces, Conforto, Bruce with Bruce getting half of his ABs at 1B.

Trade Dunn and a lower level guy for Happ.

Trade Kay and a lower level guy for Brach.

Move Vargas to bullpen.

Ride and die with the flawed offense and lock-down pitching.

deGrom, Noah, Happ, Wheeler, Matz

Brach, Familia, Lugo, Gsellman, Blevins, Vargas, Sewald

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Cano/Diaz for Kelenic/Dunn will go down as the worst trade in franchise history.

"I think the best owners always are the ones who understand that they really don't own the team. The fans own the team. For a period of time, you are a steward, and you'll be judged on how well you manage that."
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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:13 am 
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On paper this looks like a good plan, unfortunately the Mets play on turf! There are a few issues with this:
a) It assumes that Nimmo, Conforto, Rosario and eventually Alonso will be able to consistently perform at above replacement-level. Major league pitchers appear to have made adjustments with Brandon. Let’s see if he can also adjust. Conforto seems to be in the process of wrapping two bad years around a single good one. Rosario has shown flashes, but he is still a work in progress. New York is a tough place to learn one’s craft. Who really knows about Alonso?
b) It assumes that Thor, Jake, Matz and Wheeler can all stay healthy. 2016 aside, deGrom’s health hasn’t really been an issue. Syndergaard lost most of last year and a part of this year. Matz and Wheeler have logged better than half their careers on the DL.
c) It assumes that some of those seven arms Sandy picked up last year will actually contribute. He’s 0 for 3 so far.

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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:13 am 
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Absolutely it assumes they snap back. But blowing it up doesn't guarantee they receive anything better as a return.

This team is more talented than they have shown. Some poor decisions by Sandy clogged up the team with players/money that does not enhance their chances.

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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:54 am 
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Ralf wrote:
Release Reyes.

Rotate Nimmo, Ces, Conforto, Bruce with Bruce getting half of his ABs at 1B.

Trade Dunn and a lower level guy for Happ.

Trade Kay and a lower level guy for Brach.

Move Vargas to bullpen.

Ride and die with the flawed offense and lock-down pitching.

deGrom, Noah, Happ, Wheeler, Matz

Brach, Familia, Lugo, Gsellman, Blevins, Vargas, Sewald



I wouldn't make any trades just yet and I'm not sure Dunn/Kay have that much value. Dunn has a little, Kay has very little. A lot of the decisions, "do they sell"
"do they reload" is a game of wait and see. They might sell at the deadline, and that's fine. It depends on their record.

My feeling is, don't punt 2019. There's still enough here that they have a shot. Dunn could even be part of 2019 so I wouldn't trade him. Trading Dom . . . if Dom is a 1B/OF he might have some use and he apparently looks OK in the OF, but Dom is someone I might consider trading.

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Nothing is Written. (few know this, but T.E. Lawrence was talking about the 2020 Mets when he said that).


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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:36 am 
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MVP

Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:14 am
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Ralf wrote:
Release Reyes.

Rotate Nimmo, Ces, Conforto, Bruce with Bruce getting half of his ABs at 1B.

Trade Dunn and a lower level guy for Happ.

Trade Kay and a lower level guy for Brach.

Move Vargas to bullpen.

Ride and die with the flawed offense and lock-down pitching.

deGrom, Noah, Happ, Wheeler, Matz

Brach, Familia, Lugo, Gsellman, Blevins, Vargas, Sewald



I wouldn't make any trades just yet and I'm not sure Dunn/Kay have that much value. Dunn has a little, Kay has very little. A lot of the decisions, "do they sell"
"do they reload" is a game of wait and see. They might sell at the deadline, and that's fine. It depends on their record.

My feeling is, don't punt 2019. There's still enough here that they have a shot. Dunn could even be part of 2019 so I wouldn't trade him. Trading Dom . . . if Dom is a 1B/OF he might have some use and he apparently looks OK in the OF, but Dom is someone I might consider trading.


I think Dom Smith is one player that proves that waiting too long to make a trade can hurt you. Smith had value before he was called up last year. Now a year and a few months later his value has plummeted. He's been exposed on the major league level, so now if you trade him, you won't get much back. And the same thing can happen if you decide we have a shot in 2019! Thats fine take your shot, but don't be surprised if Thor, or Degrom get seriously hurt and you miss a golden opportunity to move them. Or if Conforto slumps again and the rest of major league baseball comes to the conclusion that he's not that good.


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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:43 am 
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Legend of NYFS

Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:56 pm
Posts: 63190
piazzafan wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Ralf wrote:
Release Reyes.

Rotate Nimmo, Ces, Conforto, Bruce with Bruce getting half of his ABs at 1B.

Trade Dunn and a lower level guy for Happ.

Trade Kay and a lower level guy for Brach.

Move Vargas to bullpen.

Ride and die with the flawed offense and lock-down pitching.

deGrom, Noah, Happ, Wheeler, Matz

Brach, Familia, Lugo, Gsellman, Blevins, Vargas, Sewald



I wouldn't make any trades just yet and I'm not sure Dunn/Kay have that much value. Dunn has a little, Kay has very little. A lot of the decisions, "do they sell"
"do they reload" is a game of wait and see. They might sell at the deadline, and that's fine. It depends on their record.

My feeling is, don't punt 2019. There's still enough here that they have a shot. Dunn could even be part of 2019 so I wouldn't trade him. Trading Dom . . . if Dom is a 1B/OF he might have some use and he apparently looks OK in the OF, but Dom is someone I might consider trading.


I think Dom Smith is one player that proves that waiting too long to make a trade can hurt you. Smith had value before he was called up last year. Now a year and a few months later his value has plummeted. He's been exposed on the major league level, so now if you trade him, you won't get much back. And the same thing can happen if you decide we have a shot in 2019! Thats fine take your shot, but don't be surprised if Thor, or Degrom get seriously hurt and you miss a golden opportunity to move them. Or if Conforto slumps again and the rest of major league baseball comes to the conclusion that he's not that good.


1B-only prospects, unless they are truly generational type guys, never have much trade value. I highly doubt Dom was ever going to bring you back something big.

Dan Vogelbach brought back Mike Montgomery. He had a .970 OPS in AAA at the time in his age 23 season (essentially, this year for Dom). Meh.


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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:51 am 
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Legend of NYFS

Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:11 am
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Ralf wrote:
Release Reyes.

Rotate Nimmo, Ces, Conforto, Bruce with Bruce getting half of his ABs at 1B.

Trade Dunn and a lower level guy for Happ.

Trade Kay and a lower level guy for Brach.

Move Vargas to bullpen.

Ride and die with the flawed offense and lock-down pitching.

deGrom, Noah, Happ, Wheeler, Matz

Brach, Familia, Lugo, Gsellman, Blevins, Vargas, Sewald



I wouldn't make any trades just yet and I'm not sure Dunn/Kay have that much value. Dunn has a little, Kay has very little. A lot of the decisions, "do they sell"
"do they reload" is a game of wait and see. They might sell at the deadline, and that's fine. It depends on their record.

My feeling is, don't punt 2019. There's still enough here that they have a shot. Dunn could even be part of 2019 so I wouldn't trade him. Trading Dom . . . if Dom is a 1B/OF he might have some use and he apparently looks OK in the OF, but Dom is someone I might consider trading.

I dont think those were real suggestions.


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 Post subject: Re: The non-Blow it up thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:13 am 
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Legend of NYFS

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Location: Somebody's stolen my avatar
piazzafan wrote:

I think Dom Smith is one player that proves that waiting too long to make a trade can hurt you. Smith had value before he was called up last year. Now a year and a few months later his value has plummeted. He's been exposed on the major league level, so now if you trade him, you won't get much back. And the same thing can happen if you decide we have a shot in 2019! Thats fine take your shot, but don't be surprised if Thor, or Degrom get seriously hurt and you miss a golden opportunity to move them. Or if Conforto slumps again and the rest of major league baseball comes to the conclusion that he's not that good.


But they didn't want to trade him when they thought he was their future first baseman. And lets not forget the Kazmir trade - they traded him at optimal value with him being an injury risk and we all know how well that worked out. Might have cost us a couple playoff spots.

There are no absolutes.

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