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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:03 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
If you're saying 1B in CO for Bruce, I don't see that. I don't see the Rox swapping a bad contract to add a 1Bman when they are very easily available in free agency. They'll have a bunch of them to sort thru - Matt Adams, Marwin Gonz, Duda, Morrison, Reynolds, Murphy even.


Bruce will cost them a marginal $4m/year. I guess thats probably Duda's price, but the rest either stink (LoMo) or will likely cost more. Plus, again, Shaw and McGee aren't even on their playoff roster, so its not just clearing a bad contract, its clearing the roster spot they're otherwise holding up over someone that when push comes to shove, it certainly seems like they prefer over those 2.


Personally, if I were the Rockies, I'd give Ryan McMahon more of a legit chance, knowing that rental corner bats can be had for pennies at the deadline. For whatever reason, they don't seem high on him though.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:16 am 
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northway wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
If we just bring Bruce back and hope for a rebound, I'm having a real hard time seeing where the Mets are improving next year. Here's your likely OD lineup if they do that:

Rosario SS
McNeil 2B
Conforto LF
Frazier 3B
Nimmo RF
[New Catcher? Maybe?]
Bruce 1B
Lagares CF

Right? There's gotta be an effort to dump some of the old, even if they're technically OK. Bruce and Frazier, looking at you.


I think the issue is more that Frazier is our best right-handed hitter than it is that Frazier is on the roster. He's not particularly good but he's not the worst in the world, he's just ugly as sin hitting cleanup.

Yeah, they can't be timid about trying to improve at 3B (and C).

Alonso is pretty obviously the long term solution at 1B and that prob happens as soon as May. Bruce will be best utilized in a RF share/platoon. And once again CF is the most obvious solution - Nimmo/Lagares... rather than making an effort and spending resources on finding a CFer.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:20 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
If you're saying 1B in CO for Bruce, I don't see that. I don't see the Rox swapping a bad contract to add a 1Bman when they are very easily available in free agency. They'll have a bunch of them to sort thru - Matt Adams, Marwin Gonz, Duda, Morrison, Reynolds, Murphy even.


Bruce will cost them a marginal $4m/year. I guess thats probably Duda's price, but the rest either stink (LoMo) or will likely cost more. Plus, again, Shaw and McGee aren't even on their playoff roster, so its not just clearing a bad contract, its clearing the roster spot they're otherwise holding up over someone that when push comes to shove, it certainly seems like they prefer over those 2.

Just yesterday you mentioned the 4 quality arms not on the Astros playoff roster, so this isn't a barometer of very much. Shaw and McGee had forgettable years and like most pitchers, are way better off pitching away from CO but the Rox more or less 'sign up for this' and have to overpay to attract pitchers. So I don't know if they'd be looking to get out of either of those deals already. And McGee was re-signed after having success there. Also the point already made about 1Bmen.


The Rockies left them off due to performance, though. The Astros just had too many guys once they moved McCullers to the 'pen and that kid they brought up, basically.

Although my follow-up to the point on the Astros was going to be that if there's a chance to go in there and steal a Brad Peacock this offseason, that'd be a nice move.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:23 am 
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northway wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
If we just bring Bruce back and hope for a rebound, I'm having a real hard time seeing where the Mets are improving next year. Here's your likely OD lineup if they do that:

Rosario SS
McNeil 2B
Conforto LF
Frazier 3B
Nimmo RF
[New Catcher? Maybe?]
Bruce 1B
Lagares CF

Right? There's gotta be an effort to dump some of the old, even if they're technically OK. Bruce and Frazier, looking at you.


I think the issue is more that Frazier is our best right-handed hitter than it is that Frazier is on the roster. He's not particularly good but he's not the worst in the world, he's just ugly as sin hitting cleanup.


My point is to really enact change, we have to be willing to dump "not the worst in the world" types. Very often, we've been painstakingly linear - once a spot opens up due to a guy leaving in free agency, we will address that specific position. Not before, and if the guy we bring in doesn't work out, not until he is then gone (contractually). Its why we haven't addressed catcher in years - technically, TdA was always there to fill the spot in, so it wasn't a "need."


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:45 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
northway wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
If we just bring Bruce back and hope for a rebound, I'm having a real hard time seeing where the Mets are improving next year. Here's your likely OD lineup if they do that:

Rosario SS
McNeil 2B
Conforto LF
Frazier 3B
Nimmo RF
[New Catcher? Maybe?]
Bruce 1B
Lagares CF

Right? There's gotta be an effort to dump some of the old, even if they're technically OK. Bruce and Frazier, looking at you.


I think the issue is more that Frazier is our best right-handed hitter than it is that Frazier is on the roster. He's not particularly good but he's not the worst in the world, he's just ugly as sin hitting cleanup.


My point is to really enact change, we have to be willing to dump "not the worst in the world" types. Very often, we've been painstakingly linear - once a spot opens up due to a guy leaving in free agency, we will address that specific position. Not before, and if the guy we bring in doesn't work out, not until he is then gone (contractually). Its why we haven't addressed catcher in years - technically, TdA was always there to fill the spot in, so it wasn't a "need."


I didn't intend to argue that point, and it speaks to the organization's frustrating lack of creativity under Sandy. You don't have to solve the problem by jettisoning him, but you have to solve it somehow.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:03 pm 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
lol Baseball Cube actually had Miller pitching 4.2 innings but it was a bit more than that, Baseball Reference is more accurate evidently


Why let the facts get in the way of a good snark? Not that Miller was that good anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:24 pm 
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Nobody wanted Bruce and Frazier last off-season. Certainly nobody will want them this off-season.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:42 pm 
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sluger11787 wrote:
Nobody wanted Bruce and Frazier last off-season. Certainly nobody will want them this off-season.


Well, again, nobody is going to *want* them, but other teams are going to have guys they want to get rid of, and maybe see an opportunity. The Rockies just jump out at me because of their insistence on using Ian Desmond at 1B which is so laughably awful that Bruce actually represents a strong upgrade there for them. And again, we need like a complete bullpen overhaul and pretty much none of the "2017 Deadline Darlings" showed they should be handed 2019 jobs, so they're going to have explore a lot of avenues to do this. We know about the fickle nature of bullpen arms. Maybe Shaw has lost it, but there's a long track record there.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:49 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
sluger11787 wrote:
Nobody wanted Bruce and Frazier last off-season. Certainly nobody will want them this off-season.


Well, again, nobody is going to *want* them, but other teams are going to have guys they want to get rid of, and maybe see an opportunity. The Rockies just jump out at me because of their insistence on using Ian Desmond at 1B which is so laughably awful that Bruce actually represents a strong upgrade there for them. And again, we need like a complete bullpen overhaul and pretty much none of the "2017 Deadline Darlings" showed they should be handed 2019 jobs, so they're going to have explore a lot of avenues to do this. We know about the fickle nature of bullpen arms. Maybe Shaw has lost it, but there's a long track record there.


I think the underlying point here is that good GMs are able to dump dead weight and bad contracts and can sometimes even make it work in their favor, while bad GMs wring their hands and freeze their rosters.

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Baseball has a way of ripping your ❤️ out, stabbing it, putting it back in your chest, then healing itself just in time for Spring Training. - Thor


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:05 pm 
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northway wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
sluger11787 wrote:
Nobody wanted Bruce and Frazier last off-season. Certainly nobody will want them this off-season.


Well, again, nobody is going to *want* them, but other teams are going to have guys they want to get rid of, and maybe see an opportunity. The Rockies just jump out at me because of their insistence on using Ian Desmond at 1B which is so laughably awful that Bruce actually represents a strong upgrade there for them. And again, we need like a complete bullpen overhaul and pretty much none of the "2017 Deadline Darlings" showed they should be handed 2019 jobs, so they're going to have explore a lot of avenues to do this. We know about the fickle nature of bullpen arms. Maybe Shaw has lost it, but there's a long track record there.


I think the underlying point here is that good GMs are able to dump dead weight and bad contracts and can sometimes even make it work in their favor, while bad GMs wring their hands and freeze their rosters.


Right. Changes of scenery deals are, through the lens of not expecting much from your baseball ops, crap for crap.

Conversely, when Andrew Friedman is your GM, you swap your failed former 1st round arm for a depth utility infielder who turns out to be Chris Taylor.

Or you dump a known malcontent in Adrian Gonzalez' 23m contract for Matt Kemp, who gets motivated to lose 50 lbs and gives you a 120 wRC+.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:35 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
sluger11787 wrote:
Nobody wanted Bruce and Frazier last off-season. Certainly nobody will want them this off-season.


Well, again, nobody is going to *want* them, but other teams are going to have guys they want to get rid of, and maybe see an opportunity. The Rockies just jump out at me because of their insistence on using Ian Desmond at 1B which is so laughably awful that Bruce actually represents a strong upgrade there for them. And again, we need like a complete bullpen overhaul and pretty much none of the "2017 Deadline Darlings" showed they should be handed 2019 jobs, so they're going to have explore a lot of avenues to do this. We know about the fickle nature of bullpen arms. Maybe Shaw has lost it, but there's a long track record there.

It's not impossible to see this coming together. It's been mentioned before. I just think that teams have been de-valuing 1Bmen recently. And as someone else mentioned, the Rox would prob go to Ryan McMahon anyway before clogging up their roster with another LHed hitting corner bat that would effectively block McMahon.

The Russell Martin swap makes more sense to me if you can even out the $. It's easier to find those ABs in the AL.

But frankly, I don't see either deal happening. I expect Bruce to be back.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:48 pm 
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Jay Bruce as a DH makes some sense. If it were in the NL, it would be perfect for the Mets...

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