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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:00 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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Martino is such a troll. JDG for Sanchez and Loaisiga? C'mon

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:29 am 
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Dom is a ball player. I’d give him 1B. Alonso may be the eventual answer but I really hope Dom gets a fair shake. I just feel it in my bones. He’s gonna be good. A savvy, winning player.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:32 am 
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As for Bruce he can have RF. If and when Cespedes comes back, the team can worry about his position at the time. Bruce, Conforto, Nimmo/Lagares is a fine outfield . No?


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:35 am 
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I guess 3b and C are the other positions in question. I’d just roll with Frazier - I believe in Vientos in a couple years - and Plaw/Travis. Wilmer can backup almost all the IF. Same with Rivera. If they want to spend, get a real catcher cuz there’s no heir apparent in the system. But is there a good one available?


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:38 am 
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Spend on a robust bullpen. They have a few good arms but these days a team needs five or six reliable arms. At the moment Lugo and Gsellman and mayyyybe Swarzak are all they’ve got. Blevins is a pure loogy at this point. No one else really showed reliability.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:49 am 
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All of the above means we’re basically going to war with this year’s team. This year’s team was kind of bad though. You do that you’re playing to 82 wins and hoping that you get lucky. Post-Sandy I was hoping to get away from the stochastic-dependence theory of team building.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:36 am 
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Legend of NYFS

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northway wrote:
All of the above means we’re basically going to war with this year’s team. This year’s team was kind of bad though. You do that you’re playing to 82 wins and hoping that you get lucky. Post-Sandy I was hoping to get away from the stochastic-dependence theory of team building.


If Wheeler stays good and the hitting improves with McNeil and probably Alonso and Conforto a year removed from injury and Rosario a year better, I think the team "right now" is better than 82 wins. It's by no means a sure thing but there's reasons to expect better.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:23 am 
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northway wrote:
All of the above means we’re basically going to war with this year’s team. This year’s team was kind of bad though. You do that you’re playing to 82 wins and hoping that you get lucky. Post-Sandy I was hoping to get away from the stochastic-dependence theory of team building.


They lost a lot of games from key players. They were a better team than their record indicated.

But they have a window right now.

Go for it. Bring in some big pieces to fill out the roster.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:23 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
northway wrote:
All of the above means we’re basically going to war with this year’s team. This year’s team was kind of bad though. You do that you’re playing to 82 wins and hoping that you get lucky. Post-Sandy I was hoping to get away from the stochastic-dependence theory of team building.


If Wheeler stays good and the hitting improves with McNeil and probably Alonso and Conforto a year removed from injury and Rosario a year better, I think the team "right now" is better than 82 wins. It's by no means a sure thing but there's reasons to expect better.


So if all the good things stay the same and nothing bad happens and nobody regresses, then the team is better than 82 wins. That's exactly what I mean when I refer to the stochastic approach to team building: it's the assumption that randomness will only work in your favor. If you guys think that this team is a couple moves at the margins away from 90 wins, all power to you, but I'm done getting burned by that assumption.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:28 am 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
northway wrote:
All of the above means we’re basically going to war with this year’s team. This year’s team was kind of bad though. You do that you’re playing to 82 wins and hoping that you get lucky. Post-Sandy I was hoping to get away from the stochastic-dependence theory of team building.


They lost a lot of games from key players. They were a better team than their record indicated.

By base runs, they were exactly what their record indicated. Which team didn't lose games from key players somewhere along the way?


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:29 am 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
northway wrote:
All of the above means we’re basically going to war with this year’s team. This year’s team was kind of bad though. You do that you’re playing to 82 wins and hoping that you get lucky. Post-Sandy I was hoping to get away from the stochastic-dependence theory of team building.


They lost a lot of games from key players. They were a better team than their record indicated.

But they have a window right now.

Go for it. Bring in some big pieces to fill out the roster.


The bolded is a dramatically different approach from spending to fix the pen, giving first to Dom, having an outfield alignment of Nimmo, Conforto, and Bruce, and rolling with Frazier and Plaw/TdA at third and catcher. They really need to do better than that.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:31 am 
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Quote:
the stochastic-dependence theory of team building.


=D>

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