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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:56 am 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Marwin + Ramos or Grandal

I guess ante up on one of the "closers" because none of the in-house guys look like that to me

Sign Morton (yup another SP)

1b- Gonzalez to open the season, Alonso once they are done playing games
2b- McNeil
SS Rosario
LF Gonzalez
CF Nimmo
RF Conforto
C Grandal or Ramos + Plawecki

Rotation
DeGrom, Thor, Morton, Wheeler, Matz


Thing is, that's an aggressive offseason and I still think that team is light on offense. I really don't see how you fix the offense without adding someone who scares opposing pitchers. Lengthening the lineup will help, but we still need an elite bat. Not that I see the Mets spending on one.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:01 am 
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northway wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Marwin + Ramos or Grandal

I guess ante up on one of the "closers" because none of the in-house guys look like that to me

Sign Morton (yup another SP)

1b- Gonzalez to open the season, Alonso once they are done playing games
2b- McNeil
SS Rosario
LF Gonzalez
CF Nimmo
RF Conforto
C Grandal or Ramos + Plawecki

Rotation
DeGrom, Thor, Morton, Wheeler, Matz


Thing is, that's an aggressive offseason and I still think that team is light on offense. I really don't see how you fix the offense without adding someone who scares opposing pitchers. Lengthening the lineup will help, but we still need an elite bat. Not that I see the Mets spending on one.

Ramos is a beast offensively and from the right side, so that would solve a big problem actually.

But yeah, Marwin + Ramos + closer + Morton is a whopping task for one winter. That would put the team up in the $180M range or so..? Not going to hold my breath on that.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:06 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
northway wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Marwin + Ramos or Grandal

I guess ante up on one of the "closers" because none of the in-house guys look like that to me

Sign Morton (yup another SP)

1b- Gonzalez to open the season, Alonso once they are done playing games
2b- McNeil
SS Rosario
LF Gonzalez
CF Nimmo
RF Conforto
C Grandal or Ramos + Plawecki

Rotation
DeGrom, Thor, Morton, Wheeler, Matz


Thing is, that's an aggressive offseason and I still think that team is light on offense. I really don't see how you fix the offense without adding someone who scares opposing pitchers. Lengthening the lineup will help, but we still need an elite bat. Not that I see the Mets spending on one.

Ramos is a beast offensively and from the right side, so that would solve a big problem actually.

But yeah, Marwin + Ramos + closer + Morton is a whopping task for one winter. That would put the team up in the $180M range or so..? Not going to hold my breath on that.


I'm extremely wary of depending on catchers to be offensive cornerstones. I'm also not 100% sold on the idea that Ramos is a 120+ OPS+ guy and not someone closer to 110, given his offensive history.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:15 am 
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A 110 OPS+ catcher would be great. Marwin Gonzalez would be an interesting toy for Mickey to misuse. However, I sincerely doubt they will add that amount of salary.

I could see Lucroy and a ML deal to a Reyes type.

I disagree strongly with adding more salary to SP. The money is better allocated to the pen. Unfortunately, last winter showed a propensity for them to over-hedge their bets.

Last thing you need is another salary blockade at pitcher. Dunn, Peterson, Kay may be in play for depth next year, and the Starting rotation is Jake, Thor, Wheeler, Matz and Vargas. Not sure what adding a Morton does...Vargas might be a Blevins replacement, but I doubt it.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:21 am 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Marwin + Ramos or Grandal

I guess ante up on one of the "closers" because none of the in-house guys look like that to me

Sign Morton (yup another SP)

1b- Gonzalez to open the season, Alonso once they are done playing games
2b- McNeil
SS Rosario
LF Gonzalez
CF Nimmo
RF Conforto
C Grandal or Ramos + Plawecki

Rotation
DeGrom, Thor, Morton, Wheeler, Matz



That would be amazing.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:21 am 
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northway wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Marwin + Ramos or Grandal

I guess ante up on one of the "closers" because none of the in-house guys look like that to me

Sign Morton (yup another SP)

1b- Gonzalez to open the season, Alonso once they are done playing games
2b- McNeil
SS Rosario
LF Gonzalez
CF Nimmo
RF Conforto
C Grandal or Ramos + Plawecki

Rotation
DeGrom, Thor, Morton, Wheeler, Matz


Thing is, that's an aggressive offseason and I still think that team is light on offense. I really don't see how you fix the offense without adding someone who scares opposing pitchers. Lengthening the lineup will help, but we still need an elite bat. Not that I see the Mets spending on one.


I disagree on the offense.

I think a lineup featuring Rosario, McNeil, Conforto, and Nimmo next season is going to score runs. Frazier, Bruce, and Alonso will be positive contributors as well, and you'll have Cespedes back for the final months of the season.

But I want them to be greedy. Go for Machado to give yourself a top offense in the league (plus a really good left side of the infield), move Bruce to open up CF for a defense-first type, and then use Frazier as a corner player that could help Alonso adjust to the Majors (i.e. give Alonso 2-3 days off per week, especially in tougher matchups).

I think the Mets real project is the bullpen.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:23 am 
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northway wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
northway wrote:

Thing is, that's an aggressive offseason and I still think that team is light on offense. I really don't see how you fix the offense without adding someone who scares opposing pitchers. Lengthening the lineup will help, but we still need an elite bat. Not that I see the Mets spending on one.

Ramos is a beast offensively and from the right side, so that would solve a big problem actually.

But yeah, Marwin + Ramos + closer + Morton is a whopping task for one winter. That would put the team up in the $180M range or so..? Not going to hold my breath on that.


I'm extremely wary of depending on catchers to be offensive cornerstones. I'm also not 100% sold on the idea that Ramos is a 120+ OPS+ guy and not someone closer to 110, given his offensive history.

He's another guy that some people keep doubting for some reason. Right there with Sanchez as the best hitting C the past 3 seasons. And especially destroys LHed pitching.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=17,d


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:16 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Being young and mediocre isn't any better than being old and mediocre.

There's a lot of justifying bringing back the same core, but again, unless you're projecting huge gains in 1 year from a lot of these guys, why would the outcome be different? Simply citing age doesn't do anything for me.

Oh, and as much as it may be a Negative Nancy thing to say - we can keep citing the 2nd half record. Its happening during a stretch where 60% of our rotation is pitching to a 2.2 ERA. DeGrom and Wheeler by themselves have a RIDICULOUS 1.55 ERA in the 2nd half together. We're getting historically great pitching performances and are going to win 72-75 games.

I mean, go ahead of pencil that in for next year if you'd like - along with the improvement from all the youngsters - and then you can talk about your 90 win dream (which is where the WC is headed). But excuse me for thinking thats not very practical.

So, again, if you keep everything in tact, whats the path to contending?


This is an excellent post and I wish the people who merely say to bring everyone back would answer the question here.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:24 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
A 110 OPS+ catcher would be great. Marwin Gonzalez would be an interesting toy for Mickey to misuse. However, I sincerely doubt they will add that amount of salary.

I could see Lucroy and a ML deal to a Reyes type.

I disagree strongly with adding more salary to SP. The money is better allocated to the pen. Unfortunately, last winter showed a propensity for them to over-hedge their bets.

Last thing you need is another salary blockade at pitcher. Dunn, Peterson, Kay may be in play for depth next year, and the Starting rotation is Jake, Thor, Wheeler, Matz and Vargas. Not sure what adding a Morton does...Vargas might be a Blevins replacement, but I doubt it.


Sure, but the context here is whether or not he represents a big bat that can anchor the lineup, not whether he's an asset offensively relative to other guys at his position. I don't think the latter is up for debate, but the former is less clear.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:26 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:

I disagree on the offense.

I think a lineup featuring Rosario, McNeil, Conforto, and Nimmo next season is going to score runs. Frazier, Bruce, and Alonso will be positive contributors as well, and you'll have Cespedes back for the final months of the season.



This feels rosy.

Rosario, "breakout" or not, is still a negative offensive player. He's walking more this year, which is nice, but hasn't improved really anything else.

.248/.271/.394 last year
.257/.298/.389 this year

Mehhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Conforto and Nimmo both still "feel" like complimentary players on good teams. I know Nimmo's numbers are more than that, and I'm always one to rail against an eye test, but, gosh, does anyone think Nimmo instills fear? He does a lot of things right and he's useful, but if he's your best hitter (and in your scenario above, he is), man I just don't "feel" like thats a great lineup.

Frazier's another one who's riding a hot finish in meaningless games all the way up to a thoroughly mediocre line. He'll be 33 next year coming off his worst offensive season. I'm not sure I see "positive contributor" there. Bruce - I mean who knows, but its hard to find a worse use of $13m in the bigs this year than him. Again, you can think he could bounceback, but there's a long way from where he is now to "positive contributor."

Like northway said, the lineup feels light no matter how you slice it without major upgrades somewhere. Marwin Gonzalez is a decent enough player, but he's Wilmer Flores-ish. Thats not a major turnaround.

If I'm writing things in marker for next yr, it'd look something like this:

- Jeff McNeil is on the 25 man roster. Full time position TBD (and/or maybe he doesn't have one, but rotates around getting 500 ABs Chris Taylor style).
- Brandon Nimmo is one of my starting OFers, but maybe its a platoon with Lagares. Nimmo's best month (August) he played the least and was mostly shielded from LHP.
- Rosario is here, but he's a guy I'm still hoping is hitting 8th, not 1st, in my lineup.

Everything else is on the table for me. Conforto is probably here, but I'm listening. Obviously if Bruce and/or Frazier can be dealt, it opens up a lot more possibilities for real, true, meaningful upgrades. We know Alonso's not starting here Opening Day, but I'm not blocking him. Catcher is wide open. I wouldn't be opposed to jettisoning all 3 current in house options. And I'm definitely trying to figure out how I can land and solidify CF for the long term rather than the revolving door approach we've taken over last 4 or 5 years.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:40 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Like northway said, the lineup feels light no matter how you slice it without major upgrades somewhere. Marwin Gonzalez is a decent enough player, but he's Wilmer Flores-ish. Thats not a major turnaround.


I don't think you need to overhaul the whole lineup, as I think it's fairly solid through and through, but you need an anchor. Cespedes was that guy, but his future is cloudy. Conforto could maybe be that guy, but he'll have to be a very different player than he's been this year, and it would be a bad move to assume that that's going to happen. Alonso has an outside shot at being that player, but is more likely another solid contributor in the Nimmo/Conforto mold than a guy who transforms your lineup. I don't see any reason why Machado or Harper would want to come here, nor can I see the Mets ponying up to do what needs to be done to get them, but that's the kind of force you need to add to this team.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:43 pm 
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People HONESTLY think a "big bat" is being brought in? Honestly?

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