Post subject: Re: Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz are Mets
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:47 am
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:11 am Posts: 29806 Location: NYC
This has probably been said somewhere in these 38 pages, but you know who was a bigger prospect that was the centerpiece of a trade for an elite closer? Manny Margot 3 yrs ago in the Kimbrel deal.
It's just one data point, but the point is that sometimes prospects don't reach their potential. And Margot was like the #35 prospect in baseball iirc and already at AA so his expected outcome had a relatively high degree of confidence. He had a pretty high floor.
So people can lament the sacrifice of a 19 yo OFer who has a high ceiling, but what is the real likelihood that he will reach that ceiling? Well, that's pretty tough to say off of just 250 PAs. He's a long way away.
Post subject: Re: Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz are Mets
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:46 pm
General Manager
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 8:09 pm Posts: 7266
The question of whether Kelenic becomes anything is beside the point
Was this the best use for that money and resources (prospects) ?
That's the question.
Edwin Diaz is probably a 2 win Closer.
Cano is probably a 3 win 2nd basemen. I know he had a 3 WAR for half a season in 2018 but the likelyhood is slight that he can accumulate 6 WAR over a full season at his age.
In his previous 3 full seasons - his war was 2.8, 6.2, 3.2
Bet on him being around 3.0
Which is OK .. but lets not do cartwheels. I give BVW points for creativity but he has a lot more roster shaping to do if he wants to win in 2019
The question of whether Kelenic becomes anything is beside the point
I think it seems to be the obsession for many.
It's less an obsession than a head shake that there wasa mono-mania to make something happen that might not have been the best or most creative use of resources.
Kelenic, Dunn and Bautista...what else could that package have bought for players on the market...?
_________________ "The most potent weapon of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed." Steven Biko
Post subject: Re: Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz are Mets
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:42 pm
Rookie
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:36 pm Posts: 565
thebull wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
OMG.
BVW calling out the fact that the Mets relied on "ifs" too often over the last few years. "If this player is healthy, If this guy has a good year...I'm trying to eliminate as many 'ifs' as possible."
Thank you.
Cano is an if.
For 2019? The only if would be if you think his past performance was drug-driven. He’s shown no signs of decline yet and no health issues.
He's 36. His play could fall off a cliff any day. He's a huge if.
Post subject: Re: Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz are Mets
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:04 pm
Exec. VP Baseball Operations
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:45 pm Posts: 8753
Per Rosenthal - from the Athletic so not posting the whole thing
"Here’s an odd twist in the Mets’ acquisition of second baseman Robinson Canó from the Mariners, according to major-league sources:
Dr. David Altchek, the Mets’ medical director, performed arthroscopic surgery on Canó’s right knee after the 2018 season, while Canó was still a member of the Mariners.
The surgery was considered minor, and Canó, 36, is expected to be a “full go” for spring training, sources said. "
Post subject: Re: Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz are Mets
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:50 pm
General Manager
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 8:09 pm Posts: 7266
jdawginsc wrote:
Kelenic, Dunn and Bautista...what else could that package have bought for players on the market...?
And by this time next year Kelenic's value could be a lot higher
Power, Patience, Speed -- He has the holy trinity of what you would want to see from a prospect offensively. Plus he has tremendous value defensively.
If he plays full season ball next season, these tools will be on full display - accumulating stats and getting positive scout write ups - He could easily be a top 30 prospect in baseball.
So this is what also bothers me. Peter Alonso is ranked similarly to Kelenic right now but there is probably a 50-50 chance Kelenic shoots up prospect lists (where someone like Alonso is probably at his peak in terms of prospect value)
Maybe this ends up being his peak value .. but more likely his value goes up and maybe he could have been the centerpiece for a #2 starter or 3rd basemen...etc (and not a deal that includes a bad contract)
Post subject: Re: Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz are Mets
Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:43 am
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 25112 Location: Harlem
bygranddesign wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Kelenic, Dunn and Bautista...what else could that package have bought for players on the market...?
And by this time next year Kelenic's value could be a lot higher
Power, Patience, Speed -- He has the holy trinity of what you would want to see from a prospect offensively. Plus he has tremendous value defensively.
If he plays full season ball next season, these tools will be on full display - accumulating stats and getting positive scout write ups - He could easily be a top 30 prospect in baseball.
So this is what also bothers me. Peter Alonso is ranked similarly to Kelenic right now but there is probably a 50-50 chance Kelenic shoots up prospect lists (where someone like Alonso is probably at his peak in terms of prospect value)
Maybe this ends up being his peak value .. but more likely his value goes up and maybe he could have been the centerpiece for a #2 starter or 3rd basemen...etc (and not a deal that includes a bad contract)
The way BVW and Dipoto trade there's at least a 25% chance that Kelenic ends up back here at some point.
_________________ Baseball has a way of ripping your ❤️ out, stabbing it, putting it back in your chest, then healing itself just in time for Spring Training. - Thor
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