What's your level of confidence that deGrom is going to give you 30 starts/180 innings when he's 35?

Mine is not high.

I wouldn't worry about 180 innings for his age 35 season. Not a lot of mileage on that arm.

BUT,I would hope to taper off the back years of any extension the way they did with DW

I could be wrong, but deGrom strikes me as more fluid, less effort, so I think he could be good for a while. Contract extensions are always tricky and uncertain though. Extending Wright was a financial waste, even with the insurance money. Cespedes wasn't close to being worth the extension he got and Lagares didn't earn his money.

Dickey's the only one who worked out (even though they wisely traded him), but his contract was seen as really generous at the time, and 36 million for 7.3 WAR for those 3 seasons isn't bad but it's not knocking it out of the park.

The Jon Niese extension wasn't bad though he was kinda crappy during the extension years, but it was a smart play at the time. But on average, the mets have lost more often than they've won with extensions.

All that said, I still think the Mets made mistakes with non extensions. They should have extended deGrom a year or two ago. Harvey got injured early and he's Boras, so . . . different discussion there. Conforto too, the not so good 2nd season, the injury and Boras changes the discussion, but they should look at extending Nimmo & Rosario next year or the year after if both are steady.

Matz is more tricky, he's never pitched a full season and I wouldn't extend Wheeler based on just 4 months last year, so maybe it's just deGrom that they messed up, and I said the same thing for Murphy a few years ago. He was consistent and reliable and extending him would have been smart. Hindsight being 20/20 and all, I think extending useful players early makes sense.

DeGrom's tougher now cause he's making 17 this year and guaranteed more than that next year. He could be looking at a 150 million dollar contract if he makes free agency, so I kind of get them not signing him now, cause the two parties might be too far apart. Mets waited too long.

Sorry if I'm over-talking this, but I think the mets are too timid with extensions, extensions should happen early. I get that they've not always worked out, but I think they've made that mistake too often.

The Mets have been talking about making him an offer since last year. I don't get why they're dragging their feet so much.

The Mets are acting like the girl you ask out who never wants to actually say no but always gives excuses to string you along and put it off till you get the hint.

Seems like both sides are optimistic a deal will be reached by the deadline next week...

5x30? Everyone loves him, but in two years he could be a former Cy Young winner on the wrong side of 30. How's that working out for Dallas Keuchel?

There has to be a fair balance using incentives that gives him the potential of 30+ per year but protects the Mets in case of disaster

You never know. Verlander almost won the Cy Young last year at 35. 215 IP, 290 K. Beast. Scherzer is still rolling along. Any contract is a risk.

It's never an easy call, and 5-30 guaranteed is a lot, but Keuchel had 2 legit #1 seasons. Two seasons where he missed some time, 2016 and 2017 and a 2.6 war last year. He's averaged 2.3 war over his last 3 seasons, so he's not exactly a fair comparison.

David Price, for comparison had a 13.3 war over his last 3 seasons before being overpaid by the Massachusettes Yankees. His 9.0 war over 3 years in Boston is arguably a disapointment and a fall from his 4.1 per year the prior 3, but he also missed half of his 2018 season, so 9.0 war over 2.5 . . . that's about in line with what they should have expected.

deGrom's right now a free agent in 2020, so the mets have only 1 year of control left. His final 3 years if he hits free agency would be 2017-2019 and he's already got a 14 war over 2 of those years. A case could be made that if he has a good year this year, he could be looking at 200 million plus.

It's never an easy decision but I think his 5-150 ask is a fair ask from the players side and the mets will talk him down a bit, maybe give him an opt-out in 2 or 3 years or shave it down to 5-139 with some delayed money, to edge out David Wright's contract or 4-120 or something along those lines.

Offer him 5/$130 and see if he bites. Mets get a home town discount. deG gets security.

He is not biting a potato chip...that's only $26 per year...though it would be a nice starting point.