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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:14 pm 
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johnnymets176 wrote:
His K/BB scare me a bit, bottom 3 in both among regular 1b in the NL. He will have to improve there imo to keep this sustainable long term. He needs to walk 5% more and strike out 5% less. He does chase a bit often. That will cause his average/babip to go up more most likely.


The strikeouts don't bother me all that much.

The walks do.

But I imagine that as he continues to prove himself, teams will pitch around him more often.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:30 pm 
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Only six times in the last five seasons has a qualified hitter finished the year with a HR/FB rate of 30% or higher. Yelich in 2018; Judge, Stanton, Domingo Santana and Gallo in 2017; Nelson Cruz in 2015. No one did it in 2016 or 2014. Again, this is among qualified hitters. Alonso currently sits right at 30.0%.

Pete's 80 grade raw power is comparable to the likes of Judge, Stanton, Gallo and Cruz. Yelich is just a freak. The sixth guy is Domingo Santana, who I think probably just had one of those fluky seasons. He's good and has power, but he's probably not that good.

It's not impossible to flirt with that 30% mark on a regular basis, but it is tough to do and very few hitters can maintain that level of power consistently. I, for one, think Pete can do it. His power is as prodigious as just about any other hitter in the game.

However, it shouldn't surprise anyone if he turns in more seasons closer to a 20% HR/FB rate than 30%.

I'm not too worried about his K and BB rates. He's a rookie and I think they'll both improve slightly over the next season or two. I would expect a few percentage points in the positive direction for each, but it's secondary to whether he can continue striking the ball as well as he has. What really matters for Pete is maintaining the exceptional barrel rate (top 2% in all of baseball) and strong exit velocities. If he does that, the K and BB rates don't need to improve at all and he'll continue to be a legitimate power threat in the heart of the order.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:24 pm 
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Alonso hits the ball like Stanton does. Absolute GD missiles. If he can keep his contact rate where it is at the minimum, I have no doubt he's gonna break 40 this season.

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matlack72 wrote:
I find this talk about Kelenic comical. He's a 19 year old kid who hit .253 at Kingsport
and struck out once a game and people are talking like he's the second coming. Get real people. When you have a chance to get the best reliever in the game who's only 24 and give up Kelenic in the deal, you MAKE that deal. Stop with the nonsense.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:36 pm 
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And isn't it fun for the Mets to be the guy with this kind of power for a change?

Well, fun for everyone except nitey


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:07 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:

And the all time rookie record for HR in a season is 52, set by Aaron Judge in 2017. Alonso is on pace to tie that record.


As a sidebar, hitting homers in Citi Field is about 5%-10% harder than hitting them in Yankee Stadium . . . so, even if he doesn't break Judge's record, Judge should get an asterisk. I know they won't do that, but they should.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:47 pm 
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Then they should all get asterisks because hitting these baseballs is many percents easier than ever before.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:04 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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TomInNC wrote:
Then they should all get asterisks because hitting these baseballs is many percents easier than ever before.


That's a valid point too.

To Alonso's credit, he had a 150 OPS+ and he's #2 in the NL in homers - both stats transend the live ball.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:51 am 
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Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:38 pm
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R Nitelight wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
Good way to back up a weak opinion. Blame your wrong take on someone else.


Wouldn't know. Didn't have one.


8)


Wow is all I can say.

A brave man can admit when he's wrong.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:54 am 
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Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:38 pm
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Alonso has a better chance of getting to 32 by the AS break than of not getting there at all.

But that's just because catchers are dumb and aren't executing the infallible book on Alonso, right?

Jesus Christ.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:17 am 
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Hot Takes wrote:

Wow is all I can say.

A brave man can admit when he's wrong.



I'll let you know when it happens.


8)

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Whatever.

8)


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:02 am 
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Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:36 pm
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So odd to be so dead set against a player performing so well.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso and the Mets single season home run record
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:44 am 
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Legend of NYFS

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:12 pm
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I'm not saying you can't enjoy him. I'm not sure why you insist I have to.

I think he's a one-trick pony. History is loaded with them, and they don't tend to have long careers.


8)

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Whatever.

8)


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