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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:31 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
Alonso, Syndergaard, Lugo for Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach


Nitey approves...


He hates Alonso
I love Alonso

But this cashes in on a surplus, I'm aware I'm trading away the better player, but putting Dom at 1b isn't a bad idea, and I'm getting a package of great talent.

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Terry Collins cost the Mets a World Series title.

The Wilpons are the worst owners in worldwide professional sports.

matlack72 wrote:
I find this talk about Kelenic comical. He's a 19 year old kid who hit .253 at Kingsport
and struck out once a game and people are talking like he's the second coming. Get real people. When you have a chance to get the best reliever in the game who's only 24 and give up Kelenic in the deal, you MAKE that deal. Stop with the nonsense.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:05 pm 
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Trading Pete Alonso to open 1B for Dom Smith is like trading Noah to open a rotation spot for Walker Lockett.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:05 pm 
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I have very little faith in BVW bringing in the necessary parts to make the Mets contenders. And it doesn't matter if he's buying or selling. I think his tenure with the Mets will be short.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:55 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
MookieWouldaBeatIt wrote:
So you're equating the return for Thor to the return for Kevin Plawecki?


If your number 1 priority is getting something for 2020, sure. You're getting what teams think they can part with without hurting themselves. You'll get something like Logan Allen, (and not Mackenzie Gore because he's 3 years away probably). Woooooooooooooo.

What are you looking at for Thor that replaces Thor in 2020 to "try to contend" next year, and why would that team give that up if they can just use that person instead...?

Chris Archer trade excluded, cite to me an example of a sell-off trade that yielded guys who had major league impacts immediately? Gerritt Cole got Pittsburgh Joe Musgrave and a platoon 3B/corner bench guy. Thats your model. So we can turn Thor into an immediate Jason Vargas rotation replacement and maybe grab another JD Davis type. Sounds great. Lets do this again next year and win another 75 games and whine about bad luck and injuries.

There's a lot to unpack here...

As far as returns for Noah, it depends entirely on who you're dealing with. This isn't a typical rental situation since he's controllable for 2 more seasons. And that's why you see teams like the Pads with real interest bc they're looking ahead and not focused entirely on 2019. And wrt the Pads in particular, they've shown willingness to deal Renfroe so you could certainly speculate that he'd be part of the return in a Syndergaard deal with the Pads and he's obviously a piece that helps you in 2020. And to continue with the Pads, Gore prob finishes the year in AA, so he's much closer than 3 yrs away... not that the Pads are dealing him [for anyone].

If we're talking about a team looking for an arm for this year's playoff run like the Stros, Twins, Cubs, etc... yeah, in that case, they are going to deal from prospect stock, not from their ML roster. In those cases, the impact for the Mets is more likely in '21.

The reality is that staying the course with only tweaks to this roster defies basic logic. While one could ague that the losses of Nimmo and Lowrie hurt, and just "fixing" the pen would yield a contending team, that stakes a pretty big turnaround in just those few pieces. That's a lot of faith to ride on. There's more hard evidence that the foundation is more flawed than first thought. There's no getting around the flaws in the defense up the middle. As much as the game has changed in recent years, being solid defensively up the middle still matters a lot. Having Ramos, Rosie, Cano and someone playing out of position in CF as your up the middle defense is going to continue to drag this team down, especially as we're seeing the average ball being hit harder than ever... that means that defense matters now more than ever.

So, whatever one is going to label the team's sell process, the reality is that 2020 is prob not going to be a contending year unless things gel a lot faster than logically one would expect with whatever reconstituted roster they construct. But make no mistake, there is a lot of work to be done. I don't really fault them for taking bold steps to push some chips in the pot for 2019. But now that cold water has been doused on them, don't be passive about what to do next. They can talk all they want about wanting to keep Noah thru the rest of this season; that will be the wrong move. It will be done for the wrong reason - to sell tickets for the remainder of this season... but for how many games? Will he get more than 8 or 9 starts the rest of the way? The market for arms is way more limited now than it is in the winter with free agents in the mix. And with so few quality SPers available right now, the Mets can extract a steep price for Syndergaard right now from teams with deep farm systems. Theses teams will look at him as an uber talent that they can exploit; not as diminished or a "sell low." That's nonsense.

Who are teams in need of starting pitching checking off to..? Stroman? He's not a swing and miss guy and he's got 1 yr less control than NS. Leake? Same thing. Cashner? Bumgarner? Rental. Boyd, if the Tigers trade him and that's no certainty. Mets would really be in the driver's seat wrt the market for Noah. They could get multiple players that would contribute to the next Mets successful run.

And to play this the other way around, I'd understand and even find some ground to support keeping Noah if you told me that they were going to extend him (and Conforto). So what is the long game going to look like for those two? I mean, with no extensions on the horizon, why wouldn't they be looking at what both can yield in the market? As much as I like both, they have never shown any clear plan to build around these guys, and so continuing to operate basically week to week is kinda reckless.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:17 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Trading Pete Alonso to open 1B for Dom Smith is like trading Noah to open a rotation spot for Walker Lockett.


You made Nitey cry.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:45 am 
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If they are trading Noah, what about packaging him with Wheeler? There are plenty of teams in the race. A trade like this could change the entire dynamic of a contender’s rotation. I’d assume the talent coming back would also increase as this would seriously alter the balance of play. I cannot think of any historical comparison for this trade but it could serve to restock the farm. That’s if they are set on trading Noah. I’d prefer to keep him.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:23 am 
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Astros are stacked offensively and have blocked prospects. That’s where we should be looking.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:34 am 
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Man HK that was a LTK response.

Seems like the tl;dr is "Mets can do a quick fix and find guys for next year." Thats going to minimize the return, 100%. I'm also just super curious why we keep trying to rearrange things and tweak and think its going to work. This group doesn't work. There are very specific pieces that can be built around, but adding Hunter Renfroe does nothing - that still sticks Conforto in CF, and he can't play CF. Thats just doing the same thing.

They're not going to do this, but if you really wanted to be honest, you'd look at this situation, figure out what you can put down in sharpie, and its basically:

- Alonso at 1B
- McNeil at 2B
- DeGrom in rotation
- Conforto in RF
- Diaz and Lugo in BP

And thats really it. The other pieces don't fit. So rather than bandaiding it - theyre not going to be able to fill all that for next year. we can keep going down this path of perpetual mediocrity that ultimately crashes that we've been doing for like 20 years now, or can just try to maximize value and take the L and then when that talent is coming up, you can figure out which pieces fit, which don't and use the value accumulated to make swaps where warranted.

But there is like nothing coming up right now. Thats a major issue. Kay and Peterson are Matz and Vargas replacements, maybe. Gimenez is not an impact guy. And then everything else is years away.

Lets call this what it is.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:34 am 
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thebull wrote:
Astros are stacked offensively and have blocked prospects. That’s where we should be looking.


What's your wish list look like?


8)

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:44 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Man HK that was a LTK response.

Seems like the tl;dr is "Mets can do a quick fix and find guys for next year." Thats going to minimize the return, 100%. I'm also just super curious why we keep trying to rearrange things and tweak and think its going to work. This group doesn't work. There are very specific pieces that can be built around, but adding Hunter Renfroe does nothing - that still sticks Conforto in CF, and he can't play CF. Thats just doing the same thing.

They're not going to do this, but if you really wanted to be honest, you'd look at this situation, figure out what you can put down in sharpie, and its basically:

- Alonso at 1B
- McNeil at 2B
- DeGrom in rotation
- Conforto in RF
- Diaz and Lugo in BP

And thats really it. The other pieces don't fit. So rather than bandaiding it - theyre not going to be able to fill all that for next year. we can keep going down this path of perpetual mediocrity that ultimately crashes that we've been doing for like 20 years now, or can just try to maximize value and take the L and then when that talent is coming up, you can figure out which pieces fit, which don't and use the value accumulated to make swaps where warranted.

But there is like nothing coming up right now. Thats a major issue. Kay and Peterson are Matz and Vargas replacements, maybe. Gimenez is not an impact guy. And then everything else is years away.

Lets call this what it is.


The other problem is there is a lack of funds for next year. They are going to have to move a lot of players in payroll neutral deals in order change the complexion of this team.

Honestly, corner OF is a position I think we can fill internally so Conforto would be a guy I'm heavily pushing to deal. Also, they have to move on from Rosario and get better at SS. I keep going back to a Lindor deal as the best case this offseason. The Tribe have been looking for a corner OFer for years. Conforto, Rosario and Kay may get it done. I think thats about net +$5m for next year. If they could find some sucker to take Ramos (maybe throw in $2m for next year) and sign Romine as a Nido platoon, that may improve the defense.

CF is the other area that needs an improvement and thats going to be difficult to do payroll neutral.

Its a total mess.

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Cano/Diaz for Kelenic/Dunn will go down as the worst trade in franchise history.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:32 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Man HK that was a LTK response.


- Alonso at 1B
- McNeil at 2B
- DeGrom in rotation
- Conforto in RF
- Diaz and Lugo in BP

And thats really it. The other pieces don't fit. So rather than bandaiding it - theyre not going to be able to fill all that for next year.


Cespedes in LF
Rosario, give him a look at CF if he doesn't get better at SS
Lowrie 3B
Thor in rotation
I like Matz in the bullpen, but this team needs starters.
Nimmo off the bench, if he has a good year again, Nimmo could lead-off and maybe they deal with Conforto/Nimmo in CF for some games.
Even Nido is starting to look like he might be the best catcher we've had since . . . Mike somebody.

It's not as many holes as you suggest. Consider, they have trade chips to work with too, Wheeler, Dom, Vargas.

It's not a great outlook, but teams are always rebuilding, which is fine, but the thing is - weigh the downside against the upside.

What's the downside? They're bad next year and they sell. Maybe they don't get as much for Thor as they would this year, but that's ultimately the downside.

What's the upside? Things break right and they win.

I think teams should only punt if it's a slam dunk. You're playing the odds, but its' not about the odds ,it's about weighing the upside against the downside.

Lets say the mets have a 75%-80% chance of ending up in the 70 something win column next year, finishing in 3rd-4th place and just a 20%-25% chance of being in the hunt next year. I'd take the 20-25% longshot, because teams have pulled that off before.

What's the downside if it doesn't work? They trade Thor a year later? Pffft. No big.

It's the smart play, unless they get blown away with an offer for Thor. I'd listen to a crazy good offer.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Trade Deadline
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:50 am 
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Why are we penciling in Cespedes in LF again? Didn't he just have another surgery?


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