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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:31 am 
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tejdog1 wrote:
Someone tell me why you're excited about Gimenez and not just as excited about Guillorme.


Better speed
Better power upside
More athletic

Not really close value-wise

And I’m not even as high on Gimenez as most


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:33 am 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Gimenez may end up being a more athletic version of Ruben but I think to say that's his "best outcome" is a tad ridiculous.

I have prospect fatigue with him, too, but including Sam "hello I'm Danny Muno with speed" Haggarty on a list over him is taking shiny new toy syndrome to incomprehensible levels.


It was a hot take, Hot Takes. Andres Gimenez for sure will be on industry top 10 lists. He’s a good prospect. I’m being too reactionary. He is very young and has time to turn the process into results. A good second half to this year and his stock remains high.

Haggarty because of the player he represents. I like fast utility guys who get on base. He’s no doubt way too old for his level and possibly lacking any hitting ability or defensive home or deserved prospect status but I like some weird players. But baseball is a weird game when played correctly.

Which brings me to our mutual affection for Guillorme. I’m so down.

Sorry Andres. Just start hitting better. I’ll remain interested. Haggarty stays though :)

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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:22 am 
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bygranddesign wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
Someone tell me why you're excited about Gimenez and not just as excited about Guillorme.


Better speed
Better power upside
More athletic

Not really close value-wise

And I’m not even as high on Gimenez as most


I'm like the king of preferring "performers" but why do we think Guillorme can hit at all? He can't. Him throwing up an impressive-ish line in a repeat trip to AAA when everyone is crushing AAA doesn't change that. Unless we think Dilson, Taijeron, Arismendy Alcantara, Ruben Tejada, etc are suddenly impact bats too. Hint: they not.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:57 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
bygranddesign wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
Someone tell me why you're excited about Gimenez and not just as excited about Guillorme.


Better speed
Better power upside
More athletic

Not really close value-wise

And I’m not even as high on Gimenez as most


I'm like the king of preferring "performers" but why do we think Guillorme can hit at all? He can't. Him throwing up an impressive-ish line in a repeat trip to AAA when everyone is crushing AAA doesn't change that. Unless we think Dilson, Taijeron, Arismendy Alcantara, Ruben Tejada, etc are suddenly impact bats too. Hint: they not.


But uh Guillorme isn't doing anything out of the ordinary for him this year in AAA. It's not like he didn't hit at other levels and is suddenly hitting in a repeat season. This isn't a "breakout." This is par for the course. He hit last year in Vegas at 23. He hit the year before in Binghamton at 22. He had his worst year in St. Lucie at 21 and still managed a .332 OBP. He hit in Columbia at 20.

You keep using the term "impact bat" and it's silly in this discussion. No one is claiming Guillorme an "impact bat." The hope is that he'll get on base like he has at every level in the minors at a more-than age-appropriate level and give you plus defense at a premium position. He doesn't need to be an "impact bat."


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:59 am 
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Andres Gimenez isn't realistically an "impact bat," either.

JD Davis is an "impact bat" and he'll be lucky to be on a major league roster in five years.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:57 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Andres Gimenez isn't realistically an "impact bat," either.

JD Davis is an "impact bat" and he'll be lucky to be on a major league roster in five years.


I like JD but I don't think I've seen him turn around on a good FB. He goes the other way well and has turned himself into a solid hitter otherwise.

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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:30 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:

But uh Guillorme isn't doing anything out of the ordinary for him this year in AAA. It's not like he didn't hit at other levels and is suddenly hitting in a repeat season. This isn't a "breakout." This is par for the course. He hit last year in Vegas at 23. He hit the year before in Binghamton at 22. He had his worst year in St. Lucie at 21 and still managed a .332 OBP. He hit in Columbia at 20.

You keep using the term "impact bat" and it's silly in this discussion. No one is claiming Guillorme an "impact bat." The hope is that he'll get on base like he has at every level in the minors at a more-than age-appropriate level and give you plus defense at a premium position. He doesn't need to be an "impact bat."


He’s like an average defender at a premium spot and im not sure what you’re seeing that I’m not performance wise last few years. He was a league average hitter in AA and then had a Vegas year (remember AAA wRC+ doesn’t take into account home ballparks) and now having a “good” year when everyone is. Again, look at his own roster .

I mean, the whole walk a bunch when you can’t pull a ball and can’t drive it over OFers doesn’t work at the majors. We’ve seen that a ton haven’t we? Thole, Muno- that’s what this is.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:18 am 
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Using wRC+ as a catch-all stat is silly, and Danny Muno is frankly a stupid comparison for a variety of reasons (there's a pretty big gap in bat-to-ball ability there in favor of Guillorme and don't get me started on the positional value). Sam Haggerty is the Danny Muno in our system (low hit-tool, little power, 2B/3B "versatility", walks a lot).

Luis Guillorme gets on base and plays SS well. That skillset is worthy of giving a look to.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:24 am 
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Wilfredo Tovar is still bouncing around the higher levels of the minors (got a ML look from the Angels) and he's a significantly worse hitter than Guillorme.

The hitting bar for a guy who can play SS well isn't high. If Guillorme can maintain an OBP around .330 or so in the major leagues with semi-regular playing time, which I believe he can, then he might even be a second-division starter with his glove.

He's not exciting by any means but no one is claiming he's exciting. He's got defensive sub floor with second-division starter upside. But the idea that he's a AAAA scrub is dumb and NYFS should feel dumb for dismissing a 24-year-old SS prospect after 100 PAs just because he's not sexy or exciting.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:27 am 
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Mogriffjr wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Andres Gimenez isn't realistically an "impact bat," either.

JD Davis is an "impact bat" and he'll be lucky to be on a major league roster in five years.


I like JD but I don't think I've seen him turn around on a good FB. He goes the other way well and has turned himself into a solid hitter otherwise.


Just pointing out how silly the usage of the term "impact bat" is in this discussion. The vast majority of SSs in the league aren't impact bats so saying that Guillorme isn't an impact bat is a non-sequitur.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:49 am 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Using wRC+ as a catch-all stat is silly, and Danny Muno is frankly a stupid comparison for a variety of reasons (there's a pretty big gap in bat-to-ball ability there in favor of Guillorme and don't get me started on the positional value). Sam Haggerty is the Danny Muno in our system (low hit-tool, little power, 2B/3B "versatility", walks a lot).

Luis Guillorme gets on base and plays SS well. That skillset is worthy of giving a look to.


What’s silly is doing the mental gymnastics to portray a year in which he had a .330 slugging in AA as a good offensive year.

Positional value all you want- the only years he hasnt had just “no go” type slugging is in Vegas and the juiced IL where Dilson Herrera, Ruben Tejada and Arismenday Alcantara are sluggers. That’s the point. You’re predicating your whole argument on this presumption of on base skills that will not translate at this level- he doesn’t have any sort of great hit tool and MLB pitchers aren’t going to work around him when he’s no threat. That was the comp - we’ve seen the high walk rate with slap (or worse) hitter skill set before. It doesn’t work up here. Pitchers and defense adjust. If Guillorme puts up your proposed .330 OBP with a .300 SLG- no, that’s not a starter anywhere. Or if it is, it’s a starter where fans are griping daily.

People love to talk in the hypothetical about what constitués a starter when guys are prospects and forget that if those guys became starters in MLB they’d curse daily about the roster mismanagement that BVW was committing.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:35 am 
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Can Haggarty catch a bat with one hand flying at him at 55 mph? I think not.


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