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 Post subject: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2019 3:27 pm 
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It's really down to 2 players - everyone knows this. Greinke could have been in the mix but he got traded.

Sorted by WAR, deGrom at 6.8 leads the pack. Scherzer at 5.9 is 2nd. Sherzer missed a bit of time too with 26 starts so far and 166.1 innings and 2 starts to go unless they rest him for the wild-card game, which they might depending on when/if they clinch the spot.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/ ... sort/WARBR

deGrom is 2nd in IP behind Mad Bum
He leads the league in K's with 248 (2nd is Stras with 235)
His 6.8 war is first
His 0.99 FIP is first
His 2.51 ERA is 2nd.

Scherzer leads the league in K's per 9. 233Ks in 166 innings is a lot. (deGrom is 4th)
He leads the league in FIP (baseball reference), not sure where deGrom's 2.71 lands there
and he's got a bit better ERA+ than deGrom (baseball referece), 165 to 162.

I'm not sure how close people look at the stats, but I think deGrom should win it, based on the full season vs 27/28 starts. Scherzer might have the edge if you expand his season to 33 starts, but nobody should do that.

Nats making the playoffs could be a factor, even though it's not supposed to be.

It's close. I think it's a lock these guys go 1/2 in the cy voting.

deGrom's 2nd half has been remarkable. 1.63 ERA, look at the batting average against him July-Sept:

.181 .235 .262 .497

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... g_gamelogs

That's even better than his numbers last year.

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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:10 pm 
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How is it down to two players? Ryu and Soroka have as many innings as Sherzer and better ERAs. Ryu has the best ERA in baseball.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:26 am 
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Chin Music wrote:
How is it down to two players? Ryu and Soroka have as many innings as Sherzer and better ERAs. Ryu has the best ERA in baseball.


I think there's a #1/#2 in deGrom/Sherzer, but time will tell and the final games could have an effect. Those guys aren't far behind but I think they are behind. We'll see if the voters agree with me.

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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:06 am 
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Chin Music wrote:
How is it down to two players? Ryu and Soroka have as many innings as Sherzer and better ERAs. Ryu has the best ERA in baseball.

Soroka has 135 Ks. Come on.

The final 3 will come from Jake, Scherzer, Ryu or Buehler. But you would have to call Jake the favorite as of now. Ryu has faltered a little down the stretch and Max has only 160+ IP.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:50 pm 
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Soroka is 13-4 (nobody cares about W-L anymore) and the best ERA+ (I'm guessing the Braves stadium is hitter friendly). but just 169 innings so far and 28 starts. I think the full season / 33 starts is a considerable edge for deGrom. None of the other pitchers have that.

Buehler's got an ERA in the 3s which I think hurts him. These guys will likely make the top 5, but I think Jake has the edge with Scherzer's potential playoff run and his studly K rate and league leading FIP being the strongest contestant.

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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:34 pm 
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Soroka's not even ROY, so there's no chance he's getting the CY.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:43 pm 
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Meh it isn't related to the Cy Young voting, cause he's not getting beaten out for the award by another pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:37 pm 
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Scherzer pretty much knocked himself out with his last start. His peripherals are great but he doesn't have any of the counting stats this season.

I think it's deGrom or Ryu. Don't think anyone else really has a chance. If deGrom has a strong last start he probably locks it up.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:38 pm 
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Also I think Stras is probably going to finish higher than Buehler and maybe Soroka.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:12 pm 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
Meh it isn't related to the Cy Young voting, cause he's not getting beaten out for the award by another pitcher.


If he's the best pitcher in the league as a rookie, then he's the rookie of the year.

He's not the best pitcher or rookie in the NL this year.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:31 am 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
AllWrightNow wrote:
Meh it isn't related to the Cy Young voting, cause he's not getting beaten out for the award by another pitcher.


If he's the best pitcher in the league as a rookie, then he's the rookie of the year.

He's not the best pitcher or rookie in the NL this year.


What? That's some circular logic.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cy watch
PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:00 pm 
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Chin Music wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
AllWrightNow wrote:
Meh it isn't related to the Cy Young voting, cause he's not getting beaten out for the award by another pitcher.


If he's the best pitcher in the league as a rookie, then he's the rookie of the year.

He's not the best pitcher or rookie in the NL this year.


What? That's some circular logic.


No, it's not.

If a rookie is the Cy Young winner, then he's almost certainly going to be the rookie of the year as well.

It's very, very unlikely that a pitcher like Soroka wins the Cy Young but loses out on the rookie of the year.

Cy Young award winners are in the 7+ WAR range.

Rookie of the Year award winners are in the 4+ WAR range.


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