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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:59 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

They signed the contract 10 months ago.

The reason why "offloading major salary contracts" often do not net a large return is because those are distressed assets after downturn in performance, change in circumstances, etc.

This would be like if the Mets traded deGrom today and people tried to put packages together of bad contracts and Dom Smith types.



Sold!!!!!!


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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:13 pm 
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Arbitration updates:

Thor gets $9.7M
Marisnick gets $3.3125M
Gsellman gets $1.2M


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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:07 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

They signed the contract 10 months ago.

The reason why "offloading major salary contracts" often do not net a large return is because those are distressed assets after downturn in performance, change in circumstances, etc.

This would be like if the Mets traded deGrom today and people tried to put packages together of bad contracts and Dom Smith types.



Sold!!!!!!


8)


You saw the contracts Cole and Stras signed, right?

deGrom's deal is one of the team-friendliest in baseball.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:14 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
I think some overestimate what the cost would be...they are in financial distress. And paying a free agent $200+m is different than paying a FA $200+m and a significant cost in prospects.

There has not been a lot of offloading of major salary contracts; and for those, these have NOT netted a large return. Even for premium players.


They signed the contract 10 months ago.

The reason why "offloading major salary contracts" often do not net a large return is because those are distressed assets after downturn in performance, change in circumstances, etc.

This would be like if the Mets traded deGrom today and people tried to put packages together of bad contracts and Dom Smith types.


I think the problem with valuation is that other than Giancarlo, no one has been traded at the beginning of a huge contract off a monster year. No precedent to follow.

And Stanton was sent packing due to the Marlins desire to burn it down.

You may be right and the cost would be as if he was a cost neutral entity...

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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:30 pm 
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Arby total at around 48.5m.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:34 pm 
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Stanton trade is a different animal as Marlins operate differently than almost any club in baseball. They just brought on new ownership who was committed to burning that entire thing down, and Stanton basically forced them to deal with 1 and only 1 team.

The Giants trade which Stanton vetoed purportedly included the Giants top 4 prospects.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:02 pm 
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the only thing to consider is that there's not a lot of precedent because, quite simply, teams don't typically sign prime aged superstars to big deals and then try and immediately trade them. There's usually an impetus which adds a substantial variable into the equation in the few times mega contracts are traded. Or, ya know, teams keep the young superstars they just looked up a few months ago because its generally a good thing to have young stars.

The ARod trade may be the best analogous situation but even that took 3 years with the Rangers failing to pass the low-70 win plateau before they decided to give up on it working out, and even then, they got a reigning 2 time All Star back in Soriano (who had come in 3rd in the MVP voting himself in 2002). ARod was better than Arenado is, but you're talking perennial top 5 MVP guys here.

I'd guess McNeil is where the Rockies would focus from the Mets. Especially since they've given every indication they want to win in 2020.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:44 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
Arbitration updates:

Thor gets $9.7M
Marisnick gets $3.3125M
Gsellman gets $1.2M


The Mets avoided arbitration with all eligible players.

Nimmo gets $2.175M
Matz gets $5M
Lugo gets $2M
Conforto gets $8M
Stroman gets $12M
Diaz gets $5.1M


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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:12 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Stanton trade is a different animal as Marlins operate differently than almost any club in baseball. They just brought on new ownership who was committed to burning that entire thing down, and Stanton basically forced them to deal with 1 and only 1 team.

The Giants trade which Stanton vetoed purportedly included the Giants top 4 prospects.


That's what I am saying MJ. We are in uncharted territory with a talent and a salary of that magnitude where there isn't a clear mandate AND an opt out AND a no trade.

It'll be an interesting resolution but my hypothetical Mets equivalent is Nimmo, Smith, Lowrie, and a Peterson/Gimenez comp. perhaps a subsidy increase the prospect cost.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:11 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Arbitration updates:

Thor gets $9.7M
Marisnick gets $3.3125M
Gsellman gets $1.2M


The Mets avoided arbitration with all eligible players.

Nimmo gets $2.175M
Matz gets $5M
Lugo gets $2M
Conforto gets $8M
Stroman gets $12M
Diaz gets $5.1M


Stroman 12 / Cots predicted 11.75
Thor 9.7 / Cots predicted 9.5
Conforto 8 / Cots predicted 8.5
Diaz 5.1 / Cots predicted 3.75 (ouch)
Matz 5 / Cots predicted 5
Marisnick 3.3125 / Cots predicted 3.25
Nimmo 2.175 / Cots predicted 1.25
Lugo 2.0 / Cots predicted 1.75
Gsellman 1.2 / Cots predicted 1.1

So they're a bit over their current cots numbers. Probably not in danger of going into the luxury tax, but I don't think we'll see much more spending. Maybe 3-4 million tops.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1520401900

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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:21 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Arbitration updates:

Thor gets $9.7M
Marisnick gets $3.3125M
Gsellman gets $1.2M


The Mets avoided arbitration with all eligible players.

Nimmo gets $2.175M
Matz gets $5M
Lugo gets $2M
Conforto gets $8M
Stroman gets $12M
Diaz gets $5.1M


Stroman 12 / Cots predicted 11.75
Thor 9.7 / Cots predicted 9.5
Conforto 8 / Cots predicted 8.5
Diaz 5.1 / Cots predicted 3.75 (ouch)
Matz 5 / Cots predicted 5
Marisnick 3.3125 / Cots predicted 3.25
Nimmo 2.175 / Cots predicted 1.25
Lugo 2.0 / Cots predicted 1.75
Gsellman 1.2 / Cots predicted 1.1

So they're a bit over their current cots numbers. Probably not in danger of going into the luxury tax, but I don't think we'll see much more spending. Maybe 3-4 million tops.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1520401900


Either Blevins or Buchter.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019-2020 Offseason moves
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:55 pm 
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How do the DBs get players to sign so cheaply??


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