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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:42 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
Except there is little likelihood that he would immediately sign an extension. After a significant outlay, Lindor would have the leverage...I am sure he'd want to hit the open market.

Couple that with the fact it will likely cost Dom, Matt Allen and Gimenez/Rosario to get him and to me that is not a deal worth considering. After this year, they should know not to move starting pitching. Szapucki, Allen, Wolf, etc...should not be moved at all. Especially for a one year risk out deal.

If they would take Davis and Rosario, I might be tempted, but they will want our young pitching. No dice. It's for one year.

The calculus changes if they have an extension in place.



Disagree on several points here

- Much like Mookie Betts, if the right deal comes along, he will opt for the money over hitting the market. If the Mets are rich now, $30m a year for Lindor is a steal. If the Mets sign him for, say, 10 years, they'd be getting ages 27-36, which is great value. Much like Beltran, there's a chance he "pays off" that deal within the first 3-4 years.

- Lindor is not going for a haul for a few reasons. Betts didn't go for a haul and he's a better player in the same age range, we just had COVID and teams aren't spending this offseason and not too many teams in baseball can just add $22m to their payroll in one player this offseason. This is where the Mets should 1000% strike here. Again, if Cohen is looking to seriously make a splash, a Lindor trade is 1A to completely overhauling baseball operations.

- The Mets have a surplus in assets to make this deal! They have several young players with several years of control who can come in right away to get this deal done. The only person I'm against moving it in a deal is Peterson, and even then, he's like a 3-4 type. Every prospect is replaceable and again, you're moving into a structure fianacially where you can acquire and get prospects easier.

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I rag on the Mets because they can do better.
Trade for Francisco Lindor and give him a Betts-like contract
I want 40-50 new hires for the front office, scouting, and analytics department
Bring back the black jerseys


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:17 pm 
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MetsWhiz93 wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Except there is little likelihood that he would immediately sign an extension. After a significant outlay, Lindor would have the leverage...I am sure he'd want to hit the open market.

Couple that with the fact it will likely cost Dom, Matt Allen and Gimenez/Rosario to get him and to me that is not a deal worth considering. After this year, they should know not to move starting pitching. Szapucki, Allen, Wolf, etc...should not be moved at all. Especially for a one year risk out deal.

If they would take Davis and Rosario, I might be tempted, but they will want our young pitching. No dice. It's for one year.

The calculus changes if they have an extension in place.



Disagree on several points here

- Much like Mookie Betts, if the right deal comes along, he will opt for the money over hitting the market. If the Mets are rich now, $30m a year for Lindor is a steal. If the Mets sign him for, say, 10 years, they'd be getting ages 27-36, which is great value. Much like Beltran, there's a chance he "pays off" that deal within the first 3-4 years.

- Lindor is not going for a haul for a few reasons. Betts didn't go for a haul and he's a better player in the same age range, we just had COVID and teams aren't spending this offseason and not too many teams in baseball can just add $22m to their payroll in one player this offseason. This is where the Mets should 1000% strike here. Again, if Cohen is looking to seriously make a splash, a Lindor trade is 1A to completely overhauling baseball operations.

- The Mets have a surplus in assets to make this deal! They have several young players with several years of control who can come in right away to get this deal done. The only person I'm against moving it in a deal is Peterson, and even then, he's like a 3-4 type. Every prospect is replaceable and again, you're moving into a structure fianacially where you can acquire and get prospects easier.


The problem with moving any of these "several young players" is that you have to replace them. Unless Syndergaard has a miracle recovery, they already need three new starters this offseason. Subtract Peterson and its four. And if you want good ones, you are likely talking about a $75-100M yearly outlay for this quartet.

Lindor doesn't solve the CF or C issues either. By surrendering your prospect capital to get him you have nothing left to offer teams in trade. So its back to the FA market again. Again, if you want upgrades on what we had in 2020, be prepared pony up the cash. Then there's the extension for Conforto. My sense is that if he gets to FA he's gone.

At the end of the day, you could be looking at a nearly $200M investment just to upgrade the roster, let alone what we are committed to Jake, Cano, and Familia, plus all of the arbitration raises. I get it that Cohen is rich, and all of this would be really nice, but I can't see the payroll going to such astronomical heights.

As it stands now, even without Lindor they are probably going to press against the luxury tax/salary cap to add at least three new starters, a catcher, a centerfielder, and perhaps a bullpen piece or two.

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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:45 pm 
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Disco Ball wrote:
The problem with moving any of these "several young players" is that you have to replace them. Unless Syndergaard has a miracle recovery, they already need three new starters this offseason. Subtract Peterson and its four. And if you want good ones, you are likely talking about a $75-100M yearly outlay for this quartet.

Lindor doesn't solve the CF or C issues either. By surrendering your prospect capital to get him you have nothing left to offer teams in trade. So its back to the FA market again. Again, if you want upgrades on what we had in 2020, be prepared pony up the cash. Then there's the extension for Conforto. My sense is that if he gets to FA he's gone.

At the end of the day, you could be looking at a nearly $200M investment just to upgrade the roster, let alone what we are committed to Jake, Cano, and Familia, plus all of the arbitration raises. I get it that Cohen is rich, and all of this would be really nice, but I can't see the payroll going to such astronomical heights.

As it stands now, even without Lindor they are probably going to press against the luxury tax/salary cap to add at least three new starters, a catcher, a centerfielder, and perhaps a bullpen piece or two.


My brief counters (I don't want to clog the board here, curious what others think)

- I'm confused as to why we want 30 year old Realmuto and 31 year old Springer over 27 year old Lindor. Yes, CF and C are needs, but you can be creative to fill those needs. You should be looking for the younger CF/C options to trade for, or even make those prime defensive positions. If the Mets trade for Lindor, you have, arguably, above average hitting at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF. You can eschew C and CF for defensive positions if you want to.

- They aren't fixing the bullpen/starting pitching with one offseason. That's going to cost at least 2 offseasons and maybe a third because the best pitching staffs from top to bottom have a proper balance of free agency, waiver/rule 5 finds and pitching prospects. Some of the best bullpens in baseball are made up of former starting pitchers in the minors. The Mets cannot rebuild that in a year and should aim on QO'ing Stanton, adding a mid-level arm (Minor), two one-year projects and maybe some minor league guys.

- Just because David Peterson and Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario are young does that mean they will become good at some point. Because the Mets have more money, they'll have more avenues to get young talents. I'd bet on getting the sure thing in Lindor than hoping Peterson can become a 3 and Gimenez is a good two-way SS.

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I rag on the Mets because they can do better.
Trade for Francisco Lindor and give him a Betts-like contract
I want 40-50 new hires for the front office, scouting, and analytics department
Bring back the black jerseys


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:19 pm 
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I'd rather have a cost controlled 22 year old Gimenez at around .750 OPS + prospects than an expensive 27 year old Lindor at about .850 OPS.


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:43 pm 
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If the Mets do follow my wish to trade Cano off a good season, what about getting DJ Lamaeihu to play 3B?

Add him and Realmuto and all of a sudden the lineup is pretty balanced lefty - righty wise.


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:51 pm 
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[quote="Chin Music"]I'd rather have a cost controlled 22 year old Gimenez at around .750 OPS + prospects than an expensive 27 year old Lindor at about .850 OPS.

you can have both.

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I rag on the Mets because they can do better.
Trade for Francisco Lindor and give him a Betts-like contract
I want 40-50 new hires for the front office, scouting, and analytics department
Bring back the black jerseys


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:55 pm 
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My initial instincts were to go for a Lindor deal bc well, he’s good and the teams match up and money is now available. And while it still could happen, I think they are probably more likely to put their energy and resources into filling holes at C/P/CF rather than use bullets they have to upgrade SS.

And sure Gimenez is a nice young player and almost certainly gets better but theoretically Lindor is still an upgrade. However even the Cohen-owned Mets will operate with some financial constraints and so a big contract to Lindor perhaps means that’s money they don’t allocate elsewhere, and so they’ll hang onto the young chips it would require to get Lindor.

So I’m assuming that resources will be used to:
1) Keep Stroman
2) add JTR
3) get a CFer and prob a 3Bman
4) add a few controllable arms

That last one (or two) will require that they deal someone who I believe will have to be either Nimmo or JD or Diaz bc there isn’t much on the farm left to deal and Rosie doesn’t have much value at this point. Since Sandy has no connection to the latter two and he has little use for defense, I would assume a sell-high of Diaz is the more likely route.

But again the direction they take rides largely on who the GM will be. But given Sandy’s influence, I would say mostly free agent additions - JTR, a RP (May or Hendriks), a depth starter (DeSclafani?), and Pillar or Marisnick in CF. And there should be a strong market for Diaz to net a couple of young players, with Lugo shifting back to the pen.


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:19 am 
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MetsWhiz93 wrote:
Chin Music wrote:
I'd rather have a cost controlled 22 year old Gimenez at around .750 OPS + prospects than an expensive 27 year old Lindor at about .850 OPS.

you can have both.


Where are you playing Gimenez?


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:55 am 
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Chin Music wrote:
Where are you playing Gimenez?


C - Nido
1B - Alonso/Dom
2B - Gimenez
3B - Cano
SS - Lindor
LF - McNeil
CF - Nimmo
RF - Conforto

You chop it up from there. McNeil can play 2B, LF, 3B, Cano can work at 2B/3B, JD Davis can be 1B/3B, Nimmo/Conforto can play either corner. To me, you don't need a CF as much as you need a defensive CF who can come in for late game/sunday lineups every once in awhile.

_________________
I rag on the Mets because they can do better.
Trade for Francisco Lindor and give him a Betts-like contract
I want 40-50 new hires for the front office, scouting, and analytics department
Bring back the black jerseys


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:57 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
My initial instincts were to go for a Lindor deal bc well, he’s good and the teams match up and money is now available. And while it still could happen, I think they are probably more likely to put their energy and resources into filling holes at C/P/CF rather than use bullets they have to upgrade SS.

And sure Gimenez is a nice young player and almost certainly gets better but theoretically Lindor is still an upgrade. However even the Cohen-owned Mets will operate with some financial constraints and so a big contract to Lindor perhaps means that’s money they don’t allocate elsewhere, and so they’ll hang onto the young chips it would require to get Lindor.

So I’m assuming that resources will be used to:
1) Keep Stroman
2) add JTR
3) get a CFer and prob a 3Bman
4) add a few controllable arms

That last one (or two) will require that they deal someone who I believe will have to be either Nimmo or JD or Diaz bc there isn’t much on the farm left to deal and Rosie doesn’t have much value at this point. Since Sandy has no connection to the latter two and he has little use for defense, I would assume a sell-high of Diaz is the more likely route.

But again the direction they take rides largely on who the GM will be. But given Sandy’s influence, I would say mostly free agent additions - JTR, a RP (May or Hendriks), a depth starter (DeSclafani?), and Pillar or Marisnick in CF. And there should be a strong market for Diaz to net a couple of young players, with Lugo shifting back to the pen.


agree with all of this, but man is it gonna hurt to pass on Lindor I think lol. Still, I wonder if Sandy also thinks he can make the upgrades in the other areas a bit smaller b/c of all the non-tenders and the likes this offseason and make Lindor the splash. One can dream lol

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I rag on the Mets because they can do better.
Trade for Francisco Lindor and give him a Betts-like contract
I want 40-50 new hires for the front office, scouting, and analytics department
Bring back the black jerseys


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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:02 am 
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Taking MetsWhiz 93's side on this for a moment. Lindor is a great player no doubt and would improve the Mets both offensively and defensively. Realistically, however what would a trade look like? Lugo, Gimenez, and a pair of minor leaguers maybe for Lindor and Hedges. At least then you can pair Hedges with Nido behind the plate. They could sign Kevin Pillar to play center. That sets the lineup.

Probably need to trade Nimmo somewhere for pitching and sign a few depth-type starters. There's still a lot of finger-crossing that will need to go on. But I guess it could work. Not sure if this is the way to go or not. Should be an interesting off-season!

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 Post subject: Re: 2021 Roster
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:32 pm 
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Cano has a NTC he's not going anywhere.

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matlack72 wrote:
I find this talk about Kelenic comical. He's a 19 year old kid who hit .253 at Kingsport
and struck out once a game and people are talking like he's the second coming. Get real people. When you have a chance to get the best reliever in the game who's only 24 and give up Kelenic in the deal, you MAKE that deal. Stop with the nonsense.


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