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 Post subject: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 5:47 am 
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22-12 is a nice start, even with 2 disapointing losses in the last 3 games, I don't think anyone would have said no thankyou to a 22-12 start on April 1st.

B-ref gives the Mets (before last night's loss) a 1.5 in their Simple Rating System, 4th in MLB

Dodgers - 1.9
Giants - 1.6
Yankees 1.6
Mets 1.5
Angels 1.4
Astros 1.2

and, interestingly, Brewers 0.1 - likely cause their division is terrible.

B-Ref's SRS is just based on run differential and opponents run differential.

Hitting is down in all of baseball, it's not just the Mets who are struggling at the plate. That said:

Starting Pitchers - very good so far.
Bullpen - not good

Hitting:

The Mets are 5th in runs in the NL, 5th in OPS, #1 overall in OBP and #2 in average, but #8 in slugging. Top 3rd of the NL - not too bad, but they could use a hitting boost for sure.

Pitching, they're #2 in ERA - and 5th in hitting and 2nd in ERA is going to win a lot of games if they can keep that up.

Their +35 run differential, if they keep it up, works out to 130 plus over 162 games. That's playoff caliber. 3rd in the NL, 6th in the league overall.

The team isn't perfect, and needs upgrades at the plate, everyone knows they need upgrades to the pen and deGrom coming back would help a ton, but they look pretty good all things considered.

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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 8:47 am 
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Some of the pitching performances are not sustainable but we’re also going to get the best pitcher on the planet back at some point. And- much against my prior comments on him- Peterson has been dominant recently at AAA and hit 96 multiple times in his last game there which is…new. Eventually maybe he and Megill join the pen, plus Hunter, and that could help.

It’s the lineup that causes concern. The soft contact approach has to collapse at some point. And even if it doesn’t, I fear it goes the path of what we’ve seen with teams like the Brewers and Rays last few years. Once you get into the postseason, a lineup full of not great hitters who scratched across enough in the regular season because of varied competition, and suddenly you’re only going against the BEST, and you don’t score at all, and teams who have more individually great players eventually triumph.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 10:52 am 
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I think we’re good but not as good as the record right now. However, we could be that good when deGrom returns. And then I think we’ll need to trade for a power bat at some point.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 11:39 am 
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The miss on Springer a year ago looms very large on this roster.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 1:26 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
The miss on Springer a year ago looms very large on this roster.


100%. He was the type of hitter we lacked and at a position where there was nothing coming.

Gimenez may already be better than Lindor. And even if that wasn’t foreseeable you had Rosario Gimenez and Mauricio internally- you had to feeel ok 1 of them would by, say, 2022/2023 establish themselves as at least a decent regular and controllable. In the OF you has Conforto a year out from FA, Nimmo 2 years out from FA and a bunch of not-OFers playing OF. That was a big miscalculation.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 4:18 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
The miss on Springer a year ago looms very large on this roster.


100%. He was the type of hitter we lacked and at a position where there was nothing coming.

Gimenez may already be better than Lindor. And even if that wasn’t foreseeable you had Rosario Gimenez and Mauricio internally- you had to feeel ok 1 of them would by, say, 2022/2023 establish themselves as at least a decent regular and controllable. In the OF you has Conforto a year out from FA, Nimmo 2 years out from FA and a bunch of not-OFers playing OF. That was a big miscalculation.


The trade also brought in Carrasco, who might be a big part of this season, but yes, it does look like a HUGE miscalculation by a new owner who wanted to give fans a big win early on. As long as he learns from his mistake, I'm not going to fuss about it too much.

And, fortunately Cohen's got the kind of money where 34 million a year won't kill them and Lindor is still trending towards a 3 war season - not worth 34 million, but not terrible.

The Mets bats are a concern but . . . still, most teams aren't hitting and they have a few guys who are in slumps currently who've had better seasons in the past. Escobar & Lindor probably have some better months ahead. Marte worries me a little given his age, so I'm a little more on the fence with his bounce-back.

Springer instead of Marte would have been a clear upgrade, but . . . water over the dam.

I'm still optimistic. It looks like a playoff season for a change.

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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 7:08 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Gimenez may already be better than Lindor.

Not sure even I thought this would happen so quickly.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 7:17 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

100%. He was the type of hitter we lacked and at a position where there was nothing coming.

Gimenez may already be better than Lindor. And even if that wasn’t foreseeable you had Rosario Gimenez and Mauricio internally- you had to feeel ok 1 of them would by, say, 2022/2023 establish themselves as at least a decent regular and controllable. In the OF you has Conforto a year out from FA, Nimmo 2 years out from FA and a bunch of not-OFers playing OF. That was a big miscalculation.


And Gimenez is better than Corey Seager and Trea Turner and Carlos Correa too I presume... C'mon it's an under 100 PA sample from Gimenez running a 3% walk rate and near .400 BABIP. Don't get crazy.

It's fair to question Lindor but Gimenez is not that good.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 7:51 pm 
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richiel1 wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

100%. He was the type of hitter we lacked and at a position where there was nothing coming.

Gimenez may already be better than Lindor. And even if that wasn’t foreseeable you had Rosario Gimenez and Mauricio internally- you had to feeel ok 1 of them would by, say, 2022/2023 establish themselves as at least a decent regular and controllable. In the OF you has Conforto a year out from FA, Nimmo 2 years out from FA and a bunch of not-OFers playing OF. That was a big miscalculation.


And Gimenez is better than Corey Seager and Trea Turner and Carlos Correa too I presume... C'mon it's an under 100 PA sample from Gimenez running a 3% walk rate and near .400 BABIP. Don't get crazy.

It's fair to question Lindor but Gimenez is not that good.

No he’s not likely 165 RC+ good, but as *you* said given the strong glove his floor his high. Add that he’s pre-arb and so even when he likely regresses to 120 RC+, he’s loaded with value.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 9:03 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
richiel1 wrote:
And Gimenez is better than Corey Seager and Trea Turner and Carlos Correa too I presume... C'mon it's an under 100 PA sample from Gimenez running a 3% walk rate and near .400 BABIP. Don't get crazy.

It's fair to question Lindor but Gimenez is not that good.

No he’s not likely 165 RC+ good, but as *you* said given the strong glove his floor his high. Add that he’s pre-arb and so even when he likely regresses to 120 RC+, he’s loaded with value.


Yea he's got decent value. But he's never shown he was capable of this level of offense. He has virtually zero power and doesn't walk. He could hit .300 a suppose. I'm just saying it's a tiny sample size to start saying he's better than guys.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 9:19 pm 
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richiel1 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
richiel1 wrote:
And Gimenez is better than Corey Seager and Trea Turner and Carlos Correa too I presume... C'mon it's an under 100 PA sample from Gimenez running a 3% walk rate and near .400 BABIP. Don't get crazy.

It's fair to question Lindor but Gimenez is not that good.

No he’s not likely 165 RC+ good, but as *you* said given the strong glove his floor his high. Add that he’s pre-arb and so even when he likely regresses to 120 RC+, he’s loaded with value.


Yea he's got decent value. But he's never shown he was capable of this level of offense. He has virtually zero power and doesn't walk. He could hit .300 a suppose. I'm just saying it's a tiny sample size to start saying he's better than guys.

Zero power isn’t true. He hit 9 HRs in AA at age 20, and last year hit 10 HRs in just 52 games in AAA. It’s reasonable to expect 15 HR power as he matures. By comparison, his EV is higher than every Met other than Nimmo or JD. His results are ahead of his x stats but his xSLG is still 500.


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 Post subject: Re: How good are the Mets?
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 10:36 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Zero power isn’t true. He hit 9 HRs in AA at age 20, and last year hit 10 HRs in just 52 games in AAA. It’s reasonable to expect 15 HR power as he matures. By comparison, his EV is higher than every Met other than Nimmo or JD. His results are ahead of his x stats but his xSLG is still 500.


The power looks legit, and a 390 babip is high, but not in the stratosphere. I'd say he looks like a nice player right now even after his numbers normalize.

The low walk rate isn't great, but maybe he's a guy who just does better swinging hard and making hard contact. Maybe pitchers will figure him out too, so there's lots of ways he can go, but he's clearly taken steps forward. Something Rosario hasn't done and that a lot of players don't do.

In a year when most everyone's stats are down, Gimenez stats and power being up is a good sign. I'm happy for him. He seems like a good guy, even if the Mets shouldn't have done the trade.

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