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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:11 pm 
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Not sure this works...
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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:14 pm 
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tejdog1 wrote:
Not sure this works...
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I would be stunned if Mangum got anything close to $400K.

Will be interesting to see just how firm Allan is on $3M and whether Wolf actually requires over-slot or not.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:19 pm 
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I'm basing it off his being 134th last year. Granted he's a senior, but it doesn't seem like he's a no leverage guy. If he gets 150k that helps tremendously.

Wolf I think has to be an overslot. A little.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:20 pm 
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I've never been worried about the 3. I was hoping there'd be a little more left over to steal another body or 3.



8)

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:31 pm 
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Being told on Twitter I over-estimated Magnum by factor of 10 or so lol. Dropping his bonus from 400k to 50k gets you Allan at $3,293,830

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:17 pm 
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tejdog1 wrote:
Not sure this works...
Image

Mangum has no more leverage than the other seniors.

It’s going to be something like this:
Baty $3.5 ($866K under)
Wolf $1.5M ($130k over)
Allan $2.7M ($2.038M over)
Mangum $50K ($438K under)
Rds 5-10 $42K ($1.248M under)
Total under by about $385K to be used to get Fowler &/or Maldonado signed.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:21 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
Not sure this works...
Image

Mangum has no more leverage than the other seniors.

It’s going to be something like this:
Baty $3.5 ($866K under)
Wolf $1.5M ($130k over)
Allan $2.7M ($2.038M over)
Mangum $50K ($438K under)
Rds 5-10 $42K ($1.248M under)
Total under by about $385K to be used to get Fowler &/or Maldonado signed.

And the 5% they could exceed the pool by and "only" pay a 75% penalty for each dollar above the allotment. I'd think if it takes another $100K they don't have in the pool to sign one of these guys they'll just pay the penalty. At least I'd hope so.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:26 am 
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Its great that Matt Ehalt thinks Allan will take less than reported, but I have yet to see anyone else say that. And again, the Cubs had him queued up and passed because of his bonus demands and instead they took a guy who was ranked in the back half of the top 100 and gave him $2m.

If Allan cost 2.7m, which was right around slot for their first pick, you don't think the Cubs would have taken him???


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:51 am 
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Its possible that Allan put out this high number demand .. but expected to be taken in the 1st 2 rounds and when he wasn't -- lowered his demands because ultimately he wants at least the option to go pro. Not getting picked is a great way to change your tune.

It sounds like the Mets can get enough savings to have around 3 million to play with

I'd try to get him at 2.7 -- i'd probably stick pretty hard to that

If he does ultimately sign to a deal around or under 3 million

Does that mean the Cubs were dumb?

No .. because the situation would have been different if the Cubs took him ... Allan would have probably played hard ball with his 4 million number being that he was a 1st round pick and the Cubs would have felt pressure to sign him. Cubs probably calculated that they didn't want to deal with that headache and went with a different gameplan to spread that money around more.

In this situation ... Allan has lost a lot of leverage. There is no way he is getting 4 million. And he is a 3rd round pick. Fans like us who get in the weeds might get upset if we lose out on him - but the average fan is not going to care much if we don't sign a 3rd round pick.

I have some faith that the Mets did their homework and got assurances that he will lower his demand

So .. most likely, Allan will have an offer around 3 million ... and we will see what happens.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:10 am 
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bygranddesign wrote:
In this situation ... Allan has lost a lot of leverage.


How has he lost leverage? Round and pick number means increasingly less every year with how pools are manipulated. Does Nick Mangum have increased leverage because he was picked in the 4th round and not the 10th or wherever his ranking was?

Leverage is simply about options. The Mets planned their draft around having $$ available. Allan has a college commitment. Thats his leverage, and thats always been his leverage.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:33 am 
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slot money is a factor in the amount of leverage a draftee has

Cubs would have lost 2.5 million in slot if they couldn't sign him

Mets will lose 660K in slot money

So even though the Mets lose 660K -- correct me if i'm wrong -- but they can then use around 2 million in savings from the other draft picks to give to HS kids they took in later rounds

So he has lost leverage -- its a fact. He is NOT getting his 4 million. Mets don't have the same pressure to sign him like a 1st round team would have had to sign him.

He can decline to even negotiate and move onto college .. but he is not getting his 4 million


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 1, Pick 12: Brett Baty
PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:36 am 
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bygranddesign wrote:
slot money is a factor in the amount of leverage a draftee has

Cubs would have lost 2.5 million in slot if they couldn't sign him

Mets will lose 660K in slot money


So even though the Mets lose 660K -- correct me if i'm wrong -- but they can then use around 2 million in savings from the other draft picks to give to HS kids they took in later rounds

So he has lost leverage -- its a fact. He is NOT getting his 4 million. Mets don't have the same pressure to sign him like a 1st round team would have had to sign him.

He can decline to even negotiate and move onto college .. but he is not getting his 4 million

I initially agreed with MJ here, but you make a good point. Not that he loses a ton of leverage, but the impact of not signing him is less of a hit.


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