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 Post subject: Post Draft Grades/Thoughts/Tidbits
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 5:36 pm 
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How would you guys rate our draft?? Also I thought we could put any important and or miscellaneous stuff here because my arm is tired going to each thread for updates that are not necessarily about said player..

Anyway, I thought it was as exciting a draft as I can remember actually. My grade would be based on who actually signs..

B for now I guess with a ceiling of an A or even A+ if the near impossible happens and nearly ever HS kid signs--

Tidbits-

Keith Law's chat-

alcom (Fort Myers, Fla.)

Wondering how much higher or lower Nick Franklin might have gone had Seattle not taken him with number 27. The Red Sox seemed locked in on Feuntes there, same with the Yankees after that. Seems the Cubs wanted a college player at 31, but what about the Rays at 30 or the Rockies at 32? Any chance?
Keith Law

He wasn't going round one, not to any of those teams. There may have been someone on him in round two for his defensive potential, but I doubt it. It was clearly an overdraft; one team I talked to after yesterday didn't have him as a day one guy at all.



Greg (Denver, CO)

Honestly- what are the odds of the Rockies signing Matzek? This seems likely to get nasty, with Matzek's early interviews seemingly indifferent to being drafted ("I get to play 1st base at Oregon!") and the poor-house Rockies with two other draft picks rated in the top 17 by Baseball America.

Keith Law

It's already getting nasty. I've become a good bit less optimistic in the last 18 hours on that one. He and Purke are probably the least likely to sign of the first rounders.

Steve (Durham, N.H.)

Mike Minor wasn't even in your top 60 last summer, but he went in the top 10 picks this year. What caused the discrepancy -- were you off, or is Atlanta?
Keith Law

That top 60 was a ranking, not a projection. But I think Atlanta is vastly overrating Minor - he was absolutely not one of the top ten players in this draft.

Eric (NY,NY)

Klaw, I was wondering what you thought of the Mets' draft. Since they picked so late, I wasn't expecting any true impact players, but do you think they passed on any players with signability concerns so they could pay slot (not even going to get into that!)
Klaw

Matz is probably an over-slot guy, but otherwise it's a pretty conservative group.


alan (pomona)

Is Damien Magnifico the best name of the draft?
Klaw

Brooks Pounders is tough to beat. If he makes the majors, I am officially predicting a Bill Simmons Brooks Pounders/Boogie Nights joke.



Jay (NY)

What's the average budget for a team for its draft? What's the range? It seems like paying an extra 500k or a million to lock up 5 years of Stassi would be worth it over
Klaw

I agree with what you said before you got cut off, at least. Range is five to ten million for a single club.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/ ... -keith-law


Also first round grades-

http://www.associatedcontent.com/articl ... tml?cat=14

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 5:44 pm 
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Solid B. Best of the 3 drafts I've "covered".

If we sign half of the HS picks, it's an A-, sign them all...and I'll have to go to debt rating grades, and give the Mets a AAA++ (that doesn't actually exist, lol).

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matlack72 wrote:
I find this talk about Kelenic comical. He's a 19 year old kid who hit .253 at Kingsport
and struck out once a game and people are talking like he's the second coming. Get real people. When you have a chance to get the best reliever in the game who's only 24 and give up Kelenic in the deal, you MAKE that deal. Stop with the nonsense.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 5:57 pm 
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tejdog1 wrote:
Solid B. Best of the 3 drafts I've "covered".

If we sign half of the HS picks, it's an A-, sign them all...and I'll have to go to debt rating grades, and give the Mets a AAA++ (that doesn't actually exist, lol).


We won't.

We'll sign all the guys born before 1990.

And I have no juice for any of them.

Of the 16 high school picks I'll be stunned if we sign 8 of them.

But it'll probably be closer to 5.


8)

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Whatever.

8)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 6:06 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
Solid B. Best of the 3 drafts I've "covered".

If we sign half of the HS picks, it's an A-, sign them all...and I'll have to go to debt rating grades, and give the Mets a AAA++ (that doesn't actually exist, lol).


We won't.

We'll sign all the guys born before 1990.

And I have no juice for any of them.

Of the 16 high school picks I'll be stunned if we sign 8 of them.

But it'll probably be closer to 5.



8)


If it's the RIGHT 5 it could be an excellent draft though :D

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 7:17 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
Solid B. Best of the 3 drafts I've "covered".

If we sign half of the HS picks, it's an A-, sign them all...and I'll have to go to debt rating grades, and give the Mets a AAA++ (that doesn't actually exist, lol).


We won't.

We'll sign all the guys born before 1990.

And I have no juice for any of them.

Of the 16 high school picks I'll be stunned if we sign 8 of them.

But it'll probably be closer to 5.


8)


I'd start with the 16 HS picks, and then work on the college guys.

If our budget is say...10 mil this year, that's the route to go.

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Steve Cohen is the greatest owner in worldwide professional sports.

matlack72 wrote:
I find this talk about Kelenic comical. He's a 19 year old kid who hit .253 at Kingsport
and struck out once a game and people are talking like he's the second coming. Get real people. When you have a chance to get the best reliever in the game who's only 24 and give up Kelenic in the deal, you MAKE that deal. Stop with the nonsense.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:13 pm 
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sign the right 8 high school kids and its an A grade. brooklyns entire infield must be signed in next 3 days though

gunhouse is a must sign he got plus plus power


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:24 pm 
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METS LEGIONS wrote:
sign the right 8 high school kids and its an A grade. brooklyns entire infield must be signed in next 3 days though

gunhouse is a must sign he got plus plus power


And a plus-plus name.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:57 pm 
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The test is how many of the high school players they sign after 42.

> 2 would be nice.


8)

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Whatever.

8)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:59 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
The test is how many of the high school players they sign after 42.

> 2 would be nice.


8)


I think its funny how much you trust the Mets in IFA's but in the draft you have ZERO trust, lets see how it plays out.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:36 pm 
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Its an A on philosphy. You have to take a mix of high school and college players. You don't draft 50 "tough-signs", you need a mix of easy signs and tough signs. You have to fill out 3 minor league ballclubs. They didn't draft the roster fillers until the middle and end of the draft which is how EVERYONE does it so its not a Mets being cheap thing. I don't have a problem with any of the draft choices except with maybe one or two. They drafted pitchers with good fastballs and athletic positional players. The Mets play in a big ballpark, you don't need plodders.

As far as the players themselves, we need to sign our first 10 round selections no question asked. Outside of the college players, we need to sign Greene(which based on his scout.com interview we are), Gunhouse (major power at a premium position) and either Dunn or Haniger and at least 2 of the HS arms we drafted (Dotson, Johansen, Pilkington, Mantiply, Easley and Godley). If they accomplish this then I think they had a great draft. A nice blend of college and high school players.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:25 pm 
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It really depends on who they sign.

It does look like they went cheap and conservative some in the mid-rounds by drafting a lot of signable seniors. But that's not a bad thing. If you are going cheap there in order to spend more on the big names, it can be a good thing. And then it's a good way to use all those other picks; sign enough of those guys at a low cost, and you'll hit on one, maybe find another Dan Murphy type. So go ahead and sign the best player in the Ivy Leagues, the best player from the ECAC, and the best player from the Red River AC. If you wait till the bottom of the draft to fill out rosters, you're liable to be getting the 3rd best Ivy Leaguer. But if they are going to go cheap just to go cheap, then you end up with a shortage of talent. The idea has to be to also get at least a couple of those higher cost, higher ceiling guys to sign as well.

On balance, I'd say if they hand out less than $3M total in signing bonuses, it probably won't end up a good draft. However, if they can at least manage to sign 14 of their first 15 picks, it ends up looking pretty decent almost regardless of who else signs.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:39 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
It really depends on who they sign.

It does look like they went cheap and conservative some in the mid-rounds by drafting a lot of signable seniors. But that's not a bad thing. If you are going cheap there in order to spend more on the big names, it can be a good thing. And then it's a good way to use all those other picks; sign enough of those guys at a low cost, and you'll hit on one, maybe find another Dan Murphy type. So go ahead and sign the best player in the Ivy Leagues, the best player from the ECAC, and the best player from the Red River AC. If you wait till the bottom of the draft to fill out rosters, you're liable to be getting the 3rd best Ivy Leaguer. But if they are going to go cheap just to go cheap, then you end up with a shortage of talent. The idea has to be to also get at least a couple of those higher cost, higher ceiling guys to sign as well.

On balance, I'd say if they hand out less than $3M total in signing bonuses, it probably won't end up a good draft. However, if they can at least manage to sign 14 of their first 15 picks, it ends up looking pretty decent almost regardless of who else signs.


It appears they are giving their 16th rounder 5th round money so maybe they are spending more than we think

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