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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:51 am 
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Props on the good early comp MJ.

Casey (with a better glove) would be a fine return for a #11 pick. Better than average. Casey was a 16 war player and would have been over 20 without the -7 glove.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draf ... type_unk=0

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:31 pm 
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tejdog1 wrote:
GREAT pick. Love it.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:09 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Props on the good early comp MJ.

Casey (with a better glove) would be a fine return for a #11 pick. Better than average. Casey was a 16 war player and would have been over 20 without the -7 glove.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draf ... type_unk=0


As a hitter, I have always thought Raul Ibanez...

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:48 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Props on the good early comp MJ.

Casey (with a better glove) would be a fine return for a #11 pick. Better than average. Casey was a 16 war player and would have been over 20 without the -7 glove.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draf ... type_unk=0


Casey had all of three years where he topped two wins, which is the generally accepted benchmark for what constitutes a tolerable everyday starter. It would be an extremely disappointing outcome if Dom turns into Sean Casey. James Loney would be better in some respects.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:32 am 
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Have we hit the point where people are rooting against Dom, conciously or not? And if so is it more because they want to be "right," or because they think we are wasting our time grooming a 1B that doesn't look like a 40 bomb guy?


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:21 am 
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degromination wrote:
Have we hit the point where people are rooting against Dom, conciously or not? And if so is it more because they want to be "right," or because they think we are wasting our time grooming a 1B that doesn't look like a 40 bomb guy?


I have no idea what to expect of him, mostly because Vegas is Vegas. I'll admit I'm lukewarm, but it really isn't encouraging when his ostensible boosters start tossing out comps who were in reality kind of bad players.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:48 am 
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northway wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Props on the good early comp MJ.

Casey (with a better glove) would be a fine return for a #11 pick. Better than average. Casey was a 16 war player and would have been over 20 without the -7 glove.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draf ... type_unk=0


Casey had all of three years where he topped two wins, which is the generally accepted benchmark for what constitutes a tolerable everyday starter. It would be an extremely disappointing outcome if Dom turns into Sean Casey. James Loney would be better in some respects.


Casey with a better glove would have had 6 2 war seasons. (2 of them 5 war seasons).

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:12 am 
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I don't think anyone will get on the Dom train (who is not on it) unless he hits 35 homers a year, while walking 100 times.

I guess I just see that a lineup can have different types of hitters to balance out. Some folks want all of one type, or all of another, and good teams just don't have that.

We have no speed, few contact hitters. Rosario and Smith provide some balance (and defense)

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:24 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
I don't think anyone will get on the Dom train (who is not on it) unless he hits 35 homers a year, while walking 100 times.

I guess I just see that a lineup can have different types of hitters to balance out. Some folks want all of one type, or all of another, and good teams just don't have that.

We have no speed, few contact hitters. Rosario and Smith provide some balance (and defense)


If Dom gives us a 350-360 OBP and 440-460 slugging, I'll be happy. That's a little below what Duda does, but with the rookie salary and plus glove - that'll work. Anything better than that is gravy.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:17 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
I don't think anyone will get on the Dom train (who is not on it) unless he hits 35 homers a year, while walking 100 times.

I guess I just see that a lineup can have different types of hitters to balance out. Some folks want all of one type, or all of another, and good teams just don't have that.

We have no speed, few contact hitters. Rosario and Smith provide some balance (and defense)


If Dom gives us a 350-360 OBP and 440-460 slugging, I'll be happy. That's a little below what Duda does, but with the rookie salary and plus glove - that'll work. Anything better than that is gravy.


I think the Raul Ibanez comp is better than Casey as a hitter.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:45 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
I don't think anyone will get on the Dom train (who is not on it) unless he hits 35 homers a year, while walking 100 times.

I guess I just see that a lineup can have different types of hitters to balance out. Some folks want all of one type, or all of another, and good teams just don't have that.

We have no speed, few contact hitters. Rosario and Smith provide some balance (and defense)


This is incredibly unfair. The fact that he's in Vegas this year makes it really difficult to judge his stats, and to date he's shown a batting average dependent profile that's very volatile at the major league level. Then, when we express skepticism to this effect, the conversation inevitably turns to the likes of John Olerud, Keith Hernandez, and Mark Grace, all of whom were elite contact hitters who walked a ton (both skills that Smith has yet to display).

As it stands there is reason to be optimistic about Smith, but it's also not ridiculous to question whether he will be an average offensive first baseman year to year if we're going by OPS+, let alone an above average one, and that's the baseline I'm looking for. If he can bat .280 with 20 homers, I'm perfectly happy, but that strikes me as a bullish projection right now.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:52 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
GREAT pick. Love it.


Really? Because I KNOW I wanted other people ahead of Dom Smith here.

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