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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:39 am 
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Check out Dom pitching in the CIF-SS Boys Baseball Final at Dodger Stadium a week ago. They've got the whole game: 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K..he loaded the bases in the 7th, but the releif pitcher induced a double play to end the game.

He was 1 for 1 with 3 walks..2 intentional.

He has some real swagger to his game. Maybe too much. With 2 outs, he got a comebacker at the mound and he casually flipped it to 1B and turned towards the dugout as he was looping it over to 1B for the final out of an inning. That's certainly not how you teach it. You teach to cut that distance in half and then underhand to the 1 bagger. Like, I said, he was heading towards the 3rd base dugout as he casually flipped the ball to 1st. Interesting. The hit he got was a clean single to RF. Effortless. Handsy, as we've all read. And with a abse open twice, the opponents wanted no part of him. Another interesting observation...With Dom on 1st, Serra did a triple steal..moving Dom to 2nd. The lead kid stole home. 2nd to 3rd. Anyway, the next kid up hits a single to CF. As Dom crosses home plate, it seems as if he intentionally bumps the pitcher, who was backing up home. And then Dom said something to him. It was borderline unsportsmanlike, IMHO. One last thing...as the reliever got the ball back from the 3rd baseman (after the "coming down"), the infield came in to talk to him...the 2nd baseman, the 3rd baseman and the shortstop. But Dom stayed over at 1st base, obviously pissed that he couldn't finish the 7th. You gotta be up on that mound with the rest of your guys. But he is only 17 with a lot of maturing to do. And oozing with talent. Wow.

http://www.foxsportswest.com/high-schoo ... edID=10130


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:03 am 
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Dog wrote:
Check out Dom pitching in the CIF-SS Boys Baseball Final at Dodger Stadium a week ago. They've got the whole game: 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K..he loaded the bases in the 7th, but the releif pitcher induced a double play to end the game.

He was 1 for 1 with 3 walks..2 intentional.

He has some real swagger to his game. Maybe too much. With 2 outs, he got a comebacker at the mound and he casually flipped it to 1B and turned towards the dugout as he was looping it over to 1B for the final out of an inning. That's certainly not how you teach it. You teach to cut that distance in half and then underhand to the 1 bagger. Like, I said, he was heading towards the 3rd base dugout as he casually flipped the ball to 1st. Interesting. The hit he got was a clean single to RF. Effortless. Handsy, as we've all read. And with a abse open twice, the opponents wanted no part of him. Another interesting observation...With Dom on 1st, Serra did a triple steal..moving Dom to 2nd. The lead kid stole home. 2nd to 3rd. Anyway, the next kid up hits a single to CF. As Dom crosses home plate, it seems as if he intentionally bumps the pitcher, who was backing up home. And then Dom said something to him. It was borderline unsportsmanlike, IMHO. One last thing...as the reliever got the ball back from the 3rd baseman (after the "coming down"), the infield came in to talk to him...the 2nd baseman, the 3rd baseman and the shortstop. But Dom stayed over at 1st base, obviously pissed that he couldn't finish the 7th. You gotta be up on that mound with the rest of your guys. But he is only 17 with a lot of maturing to do. And oozing with talent. Wow.

http://www.foxsportswest.com/high-schoo ... edID=10130


Great find. And I want to revise my Sean Casey physical comp and change it to...Dontrelle. The swing is almost exact, from the open stance to start, the exaggerated bat wiggle and leg kick, etc. I'll never forget those homeruns he used to crush off us. I'm sticking with that.

He even kinda pitches like D-Train with the 3/4 arm slot.


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 11:12 am 
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Seems like a very competitive kid...and has some swagger and arrogance to his game like it comes naturally (think Cano) but he killed his interviews...I don't mind it.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 10:23 am 
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acerimusdux wrote:
MikeH wrote:
Thanks acer. Good stuff as always.


I should add, I know a lot of stuff, but know very little about scouting HS players. I've been following the Mets draft for a long time, but they've never been good at drafting HS guys in that time either, so I maybe haven't really seen it done right.

A kid like this though, the tools look good enough but not obviously great, so to go this high, they have to see a lot in the bat, they really think he's a hitter. So we should see him put up pretty good numbers early on if they are right.



I agree. I'm also somewhat underwhelmed by this pick at 11. An undersized L/L 1Bman at just 18 who doesn't rate well as an OFer means to me that he is going to have to hit, and hit a lot in order to earn being picked this high. Lyle Overbay? Not saying he didn't have a nice career, but the bat has to be near elite at 1B or teams are looking to move on and w/o the ability to play other positions his job keeps getting squeezed. Yanks threw him in RF last week just to save him.

I agree that if the hit tool is really elite (as many scouts have said) then he should get results out of the box.

I will be watching Hunter Renfroe's career closely. At least in Renfroe's case, he's supposed to be a + RFer with a ++ arm and has good baserunning ability even if his bat turns out to be less than elite.


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 10:34 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
MikeH wrote:
Thanks acer. Good stuff as always.


I should add, I know a lot of stuff, but know very little about scouting HS players. I've been following the Mets draft for a long time, but they've never been good at drafting HS guys in that time either, so I maybe haven't really seen it done right.

A kid like this though, the tools look good enough but not obviously great, so to go this high, they have to see a lot in the bat, they really think he's a hitter. So we should see him put up pretty good numbers early on if they are right.



I agree. I'm also somewhat underwhelmed by this pick at 11. An undersized L/L 1Bman at just 18 who doesn't rate well as an OFer means to me that he is going to have to hit, and hit a lot in order to earn being picked this high. Lyle Overbay? Not saying he didn't have a nice career, but the bat has to be near elite at 1B or teams are looking to move on and w/o the ability to play other positions his job keeps getting squeezed. Yanks threw him in RF last week just to save him.

I agree that if the hit tool is really elite (as many scouts have said) then he should get results out of the box.

I will be watching Hunter Renfroe's career closely. At least in Renfroe's case, he's supposed to be a + RFer with a ++ arm and has good baserunning ability even if his bat turns out to be less than elite.


Kid has a nice left handed bat and is a good athlete from the times I have seen him play. Maybe he isn't a 30 HR guy but a .300 average guy with 15-20 HR potential. This was a very solid pick in a weak draft class.


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:46 am 
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Renfroe or Dom Smith, SJU?

The best comp ceiling I can think of for Dom Smith in watching his swing and fielding is a Jon Olerud, more power wise, but being a few clicks below on batting average and equitable glove/arm...

I think he'll be more if a doubles machine and hit 15-20 homers a year...

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:47 am 
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Smith to GCL if he signs per Rubin

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:57 am 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Smith to GCL if he signs per Rubin



that's pretty much the 5 year plan, no? #-o


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 12:18 pm 
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I don't think this was posted. This was in Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

"The Mets have become so skilled in the art of the botch in recent years that their newest players seem like victims in waiting. Something is sure to happen to them; we just don't yet know what it is.

Perhaps 17-year-old Dominic Smith, the team's first-round pick in this year's amateur draft, will escape his certain fate. Considered one of the best high-school hitters in the country, he won't even be an adult until this coming weekend. The evil funk that has settled over the team could dissipate by the time he's ready for the majors. He has time.


Getty Images

Dominic Smith, the Mets' 2013 first-round draft choice
What he likely doesn't have is all the potential that Mets fans, scarred by Ike Davis's pitcher-quality hitting, would like to think he does. Smith could grow up to be a valued member of a good team, even a hitter in the middle of a World Series champion's lineup, but he's likely not going to be a true foundational player. It's hard to rise above your class.

That's rough judgment to pass on someone who can't vote yet, but there's a lot of history to back it up. It's a truism that the way to get a second baseman is to draft a shortstop. In the same line, the way to get a great first baseman isn't to draft one out of high school.

A straight list of the best players at the position over the past couple of generations tells most of the story. Albert Pujols, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell and Jason Giambi, among others, came up in baseball as third basemen. The best pure first basemen, like Frank Thomas, Todd Helton and John Olerud, came out of college. There are exceptions, like Eddie Murray and Fred McGriff. (There are always exceptions.) But the ceiling tends to be relatively lower for someone who comes into pro baseball as a teenage first baseman.

If you think about it at all, the reason why is obvious. A great player needs a certain level of athleticism. If you start with enough speed and reflexes to play, say, a passable third base, then even as they decline you'll still have plenty; if you don't when you're 17, then when they start to slip you won't have enough to keep up. Even the careers of the better pure first basemen to come out of college suggests as much: Thomas and Helton were strong football players, and Olerud was a fine pitcher. They were lead-footed, but clearly athletic in other ways.

A look at the 44 first basemen who have been drafted in the first round over the years might put this in perspective. Twenty-nine made the majors, 10 had careers of more than 1,000 games and almost none was ever more than a complementary player, even at his best.

The best of these players, in their primes, were probably Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Derrek Lee. Fielder, despite his massive contract and many accolades, is a less than an elite player. He is such a liability in the field and on the bases that only in his very best years is he a deserving All-Star. Gonzalez had a couple of years where he was a deserving MVP candidate, but has spent most of his career as a reliable, solid starter. And Lee was much like Gonzalez, but with a less sustained peak.

Obviously, if Smith turns out to be as good as any of those three, or Harold Baines or Greg Luzinski, the Mets will be thrilled and fans will be thrilled and so will T-shirt vendors. With the possible exception of Gonzalez, though, none was ever the kind of player who could anchor a great team, and that's the problem.

Given their recent, catastrophic history, the relative lack of talent in the minor-league system and their apparent lack of cash, what the Mets need are young players with lots of upside, who at least have the potential to consistently rank among the absolute best players at their positions for years at a time. They need to take calculated risks and get lucky with some of them.

But Smith's pick is fairly low risk; he is by all accounts an exceptionally smart and polished hitter, and there's every chance he'll be in the majors within three years, and contributing not long after. With low risk comes low return, though, and that's something the Mets can't really afford. Even if nothing goes wrong with him, that doesn't mean much will go right."


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 12:19 pm 
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If the Mets value the Mets making clear they view the BK experience quite highly it seems possible or even likely that Smith may follow the Cecchini schedule of BK in 2014. Obviously if he hits really well this year maybe he's in BK long enough that they let him "skip" it but Nimmo, Evans, Cecchini have all been placed in BK during their "second" seasons.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 2:19 pm 
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The power will be determined by how much he fills out.

His swing shows natural power and he has quick hands with a nice line drive stroke that has some loft to it. As he gets bigger and stronger the power probably will come. No guarantees of course.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 Mets Draft: Round 01, Pick 11: 1b Dominic Smith HS
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 3:46 pm 
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Piggybacking on the WSJ article above, I think I read Smith was the first HS 1B drafted in the first round in some time.

I've found myself shaking my head no at the 2 1st rounders that seem to be a consensus "yes" otherwise (Nimmo and Smith), yet completely understanding the 1st rounder that seemed to be a consensus "no" (Cecchini). We'll see how they end up.


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