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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 12:59 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
pennst92 wrote:
Don't the Mets lose next year's 1st rounder if they go too far overslot? I thought I read something to that affect.



If they go 6% over pool then yes they lose a pick but they can spend 5% over and just pay 75% tax on the overage... the Mets should be willing to do this every single year.


Has any team actually paid the tax? I can't think of one.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:04 pm 
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No teams paid the IFA tax either... until a few decided to and now it's the rage. New rules means very few years for teams to "understand" what the industry would do. The Yankees now are apparently going to spend 15 million on IFA's.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:12 pm 
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Can't find a list but the Dodgers apparently went "slightly over" last year for one.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 2:42 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Can't find a list but the Dodgers apparently went "slightly over" last year for one.


I think they ran the numbers backwards - positive means under, negative means over.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2013pool.php

Dodgers were one of the teams that went over. No team went over by more than 5% - which is smart. It's really not worth it to lose a first round pick.

The Dodgers, Mariners, Cubs & Cards all came close to 5%.

Here's 2012.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2012pool.php

but there's other factors, number of players signed, number of high schoolers (who, in addition to signing bonus, get their college paid for later on), which adds to total amount spent even if it doesn't show up in the over/under.

The cubs and Indians, for example, signed 24 players last year, the Cards signed 38. I have to think you improve your chances of having a good draft if you sign 60% more players.

The Marlins did something interesting. They had 9.5 million to spend but because they didn't sign a few picks (including a 3rd rounder), they only spent 7.1 million and came in just 127,000 underslot. I think it's stupid to just waste picks like that, but that wacky Marlins owner doesn't seem to care.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 2:53 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Can't find a list but the Dodgers apparently went "slightly over" last year for one.


I think they ran the numbers backwards - positive means under, negative means over.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2013pool.php

Dodgers were one of the teams that went over. No team went over by more than 5% - which is smart. It's really not worth it to lose a first round pick.

The Dodgers, Mariners, Cubs & Cards all came close to 5%.

Here's 2012.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2012pool.php

but there's other factors, number of players signed, number of high schoolers (who, in addition to signing bonus, get their college paid for later on), which adds to total amount spent even if it doesn't show up in the over/under.

The cubs and Indians, for example, signed 24 players last year, the Cards signed 38. I have to think you improve your chances of having a good draft if you sign 60% more players.

The Marlins did something interesting. They had 9.5 million to spend but because they didn't sign a few picks (including a 3rd rounder), they only spent 7.1 million and came in just 127,000 underslot. I think it's stupid to just waste picks like that, but that wacky Marlins owner doesn't seem to care.


Thanks for finding that. I'd say the key is... being WILLING to go over by 5% when the right player/players are there. At this point hard to be comfortable believing the Mets would.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 3:40 pm 
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sign

3rd rounder Ramos
7th rounder Wieck
6th rounder Moore
5th rounder Prevost
8th rounder Winningham
10th rounder Secrest
11th rounder Buchmann
12th rounder Durham
13th rounder Manoah
14th rounder Knight
15th rounder Llanes
19th rounder Beeler
22nd rounder Fulmer
24th rounder Badamo
25th rounder Blank
29th rounder Blackham
30th rounder Tharp


Expected to sign Garcia and Conforto shortly

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 3:45 pm 
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That would make 18 signed + Garcia and Conforto I believe

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 4:18 pm 
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Have to figure Katz will sign - though he's still a junior. Might think he can go higher next season. Funny - he's one of the guys I'm really intrigued by.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 4:38 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
sign

3rd rounder Ramos
7th rounder Wieck
6th rounder Moore
5th rounder Prevost
8th rounder Winningham
10th rounder Secrest
11th rounder Buchmann
12th rounder Durham
13th rounder Manoah
14th rounder Knight
15th rounder Llanes
19th rounder Beeler
22nd rounder Fulmer
24th rounder Badamo
25th rounder Blank
29th rounder Blackham
30th rounder Tharp


Expected to sign Garcia and Conforto shortly


It's going to be interesting to see where the numbers come in this year. I don't see too much underslot in there. They'll save some money on Conforto, maybe Garcia and Prevost and Secrest too, but I don't see that much in savings. I'm guessing picks 11-15 are probobly all overslots, so they could be right near their limit. If they squeeze in #16 - Huertas and/or #18 Rafael Ramirez and maybe a guy in the 31-40 range, I'd consider that a very successful signing period. There's probobly an upper limit to what we should expect.

Unless I counted wrong, just 2 college guys not mentioned yet Katz (round 9) and Palsha (round 27)? - I don't see anyone else. . . . edit, and now, Palsha's signed so Katz is the only unsigned college pick.

and they'll probobly try to add another high schooler or three, but I don't think they have enough money for much more.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 4:43 pm 
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Garcia official.

Conforto and Katz are now the only players drafted in the top 15 rounds not signed.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 10:03 pm 
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I haven't seen the Ramis signing.

Huertas, Ramirez, Beeler still on the board.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 New York Mets Draft Selections & Signing Status
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 10:49 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Can't find a list but the Dodgers apparently went "slightly over" last year for one.


I think they ran the numbers backwards - positive means under, negative means over.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2013pool.php

Dodgers were one of the teams that went over. No team went over by more than 5% - which is smart. It's really not worth it to lose a first round pick.

The Dodgers, Mariners, Cubs & Cards all came close to 5%.

Here's 2012.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2012pool.php

but there's other factors, number of players signed, number of high schoolers (who, in addition to signing bonus, get their college paid for later on), which adds to total amount spent even if it doesn't show up in the over/under.

The cubs and Indians, for example, signed 24 players last year, the Cards signed 38. I have to think you improve your chances of having a good draft if you sign 60% more players.

The Marlins did something interesting. They had 9.5 million to spend but because they didn't sign a few picks (including a 3rd rounder), they only spent 7.1 million and came in just 127,000 underslot. I think it's stupid to just waste picks like that, but that wacky Marlins owner doesn't seem to care.


Thanks for finding that. I'd say the key is... being WILLING to go over by 5% when the right player/players are there. At this point hard to be comfortable believing the Mets would.


IMO, the smart way to look at that added 5% is to view it as having been spread around to all of the guys you drafted, not just the last guy you sign who puts you over the top. In other words, you shouldn't be looking at it as crossing a boundary, you should look at it as 105% is your bonus pool from the get go. But perhaps that's unrealistic.

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