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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 5:20 pm 
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ilikeike29 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
JrMan wrote:
Oh boy, I'd be willing to throw away several picks on senior signs if it meant we could get Rutherford, but I doubt someone that talented gets to 19.

Yeah, I'd be ecstatic but no way I see it happening. He'd be 1-1 if I were doing the ranking.

He'd be 1-1 for me if he was 18.

Being 19 doesn't detract from the ranking for me.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 5:29 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Being 19 doesn't detract from the ranking for me.

It definitely does for me. Age is a big factor, especially for HS players.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15306


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:06 pm 
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ilikeike29 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Being 19 doesn't detract from the ranking for me.

It definitely does for me. Age is a big factor, especially for HS players.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15306

that's all well and good, but I am/we are talking about 1 specific player, not a composite of the entire draft. This is a great example of the over-reliance on generalized stats/research can (and does) override decisions on individual players.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:14 pm 
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Practically A Wilpon

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HeyNowHK wrote:
ilikeike29 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Being 19 doesn't detract from the ranking for me.

It definitely does for me. Age is a big factor, especially for HS players.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15306

that's all well and good, but I am/we are talking about 1 specific player, not a composite of the entire draft. This is a great example of the over-reliance on generalized stats/research can (and does) override decisions on individual players.

It's not like I'm throwing Rutherford out or anything. I'm just saying it's enough to stop him from being my top overall player in the entire draft. I'd still love him at 19 and consider him a borderline top 5 pick.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:23 pm 
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Delvin Perez failed a drug test, and Keith Law says it wasn't marijuana. Not a good sign.

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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:26 pm 
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newyork134 wrote:
Delvin Perez failed a drug test, and Keith Law says it wasn't marijuana. Not a good sign.

That must be why he had dropped out of BA's last mock. Wow.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:27 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
JrMan wrote:
I agree it's very unlikely, but it could get interesting if the Phillies promised him say $4-4.5 million and told him to pull a Daz Cameron and tell other teams he won't sign for less than that. The Mets would really have to stretch to hit that number, but they could do it in theory by saving $2 million elsewhere. The extra incentive for the Mets is that they get to ruin the Phillies plan.

It seems like Manuel is expecting a lot of high upside guys to fall as teams try to game the system. The Mets could definitely play the spoiler since they have that extra pick. It just makes Thursday that much more fun for us.

The Pads, ChiSox and Nats all have multiple picks before the Mets 2nd pick. And the Cards have three 1st rounders also.


But only the Pads and ChiSox pick before 19, so if he got past the ChiSox at 10, he very well could fall to the Mets at 19. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I can at least see how it would play out.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:33 pm 
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Jeez I wanted a way for Delvin Perez to fall to us but no thank you. Maybe at 64, don't think he has a college commitment.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:51 pm 
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Yikes, John Manuel said he has Perez falling out of the first day, which ends at pick 77.

Perez has to be off to juco for a year now, right?


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:08 pm 
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The assumption has to be it's either steroids or something harder than marijuana right?

Maybe it's adderall like Jon Gray a few years back.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 9:20 am 
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It turns out it was a performance-enhancing drug (undisclosed, but not adderall). It's still bad, but I am less concerned with a 17-year old doing that than I would be if it was a hard recreational drug.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mock Drafts
PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:00 am 
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JrMan wrote:
It turns out it was a performance-enhancing drug (undisclosed, but not adderall). It's still bad, but I am less concerned with a 17-year old doing that than I would be if it was a hard recreational drug.

Saw a mock with the Yankees grabbing him at 18 fwiw. I doubt the Yankees take the risk but you would have to figure the Pads might at 24 or 25 given they have 3 first round picks and 6 of the first 85 picks.


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