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 Post subject: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Fri Dec 25, 2015 12:39 am 
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Currently #21 and #29

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/u ... order.html

Pick #21 can only move forward. Pick #29 can slide either way depending on who signs who.

Estimates using 2015 numbers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/20 ... aft-slots/

21 - 2,184,200
29 - 1,944,800

and the later rounds, (updated see here) http://m.mlb.com/draft/2016/order

Round 2 - #63 - 979,600
Round 3 - #100 - 570,300
Round 4 - 130 - 426,800
Round 5 - 160 - 319,700
Round 6 - 190 - 239,400
Round 7 - 220 - 179,500
Round 8 - 250 - 167,700
Round 9 - 280 - 156,500
Round 10 - 310 - 149,700

Total: 7,318,200 and it could go up a little.


original order

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ph ... aft-order/

2015 team allotments: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/126797888 ... onus-pools

7.32 million estimate puts us at #14 overall based on 2015 numbers, several teams bunched around the 7 million area. Not bad for a world series team.

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"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:24 pm 
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11. Mariners
12. Red Sox
13. Rays
14. Orioles
15. Indians
16. Twins
17. Angels
18. Astros
19. Yankees
20. Rangers


Need these teams to sign QO FA's, please.

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Wed Dec 30, 2015 5:41 am 
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http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2015/11/13/ ... -2015-2016


LHP Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles - unsigned (1)
1B Chris Davis, Orioles - unsigned (2)
SS Ian Desmond, Nationals - unsigned (3)
OF Dexter Fowler, Cubs - unsigned (4)
RHP Yovani Gallardo, Rangers - unsigned (5)
OF Alex Gordon, Royals - unsigned (6)
RHP Zack Greinke, Dodgers - signed.
OF Jason Heyward, Cardinals - signed
RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners - resigned with same team.
2B Howie Kendrick, Dodgers - unsigned (7)
RHP Ian Kennedy, Padres - unsigned (8 )
RHP John Lackey, Cardinals - signed
2B Daniel Murphy, Mets - signed
RHP Jeff Samardzija, White Sox - signed
OF Justin Upton, Padres - unsigned (9)
RHP Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals - signed

9 guys still on board, which is kinda interesting, though I have a tough time seeing some of those 10 teams ahead of us signing someone but some of them might. I think we slide maybe 3 more spots possibly 4. 17 or 18. Plus 150-200 K.

But, sidebar, #29 could slide backwards. Compensation picks to the Os (2), Nationals, Rangers, Padres (2) means 6 teams could get compensation picks ahead of the Mets #29. #29 could slide backwards to (my guess), 30, 31 or 32 cause it depends on who signs whom. It's still works out to a small net gain in draft day money. 2016 draft should be fun.

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"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:38 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:

I have a tough time seeing some of those 10 teams ahead of us signing someone but some of them might.



One thing interesting is that they are all AL teams.

An AL team may be more likely to give a long term deal to a Davis, Upton and Gordon since they have the DH as a fall back for the player's later years.

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:55 pm 
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Practically A Wilpon

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I can see the mets drafting at least one pitcher with these two picks so they can restock the pitching


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:52 pm 
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Question: What is the rule regarding which pick you lose when you sign a QO player?

Example A: Padres are in the hunt for Ian Desmond. Their first pick is protected. So do they lose their 2nd round pick or the pick they gain when Ian Kennedy signs? Or does it matter if Ian Kennedy/ Justin Upton sign before Ian Desmond??


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:54 pm 
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Example B: Marlins are about to sign Chen... Their 8th pick is protected. Do they lose a second round pick or their comp A pick?


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2016 1:42 pm 
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stevereiff wrote:
Example B: Marlins are about to sign Chen... Their 8th pick is protected. Do they lose a second round pick or their comp A pick?


Yes, the Marlins gave up a 2nd round pick for Chen. This means our #21 pick is still 21 but our #29 pick slides to 30 cause the O's get a compensation pick ahead of us.

If the Pads sign Desmond, the same thing happens. They lose their 2nd round pick and the Nationals get a compensation pick which slides in before our Murphy compensation cause the Nats had a worse record than the mets. That wouldn't affect our #21 pick.

What we hope is that some of the 10 or so teams still ahead of us (per Daaaaarryyl's post) are still in the mix for QO free agents cause only those 10 teams can slide the mets forward.

11. Mariners
12. Red Sox
13. Rays
14. Orioles
15. Indians
16. Twins
17. Angels
18. Astros
19. Yankees
20. Rangers


I'm guessing the Royals or Pirates won't sign any big free agents, but if the Cards, Jays or Dodgers do, that won't affect our first round pick but would slide the Murphy pick forward, where as, teams like the Pads or Marlins signing QOs slides the Murphy pick back and leaves the #21 pick the same.

All told, I don't think we'll see a whole lot of movement. Our picks are currently #21 and #30. I think we'll end up somewhere around #19-#20 and #31-32.

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"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2016 12:44 pm 
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The Kennedy signing doesn't change our pick status. Royals lose pick #24, Padres add pick #28. Our picks, #21 & #30 remain unchanged.

If the Tigers sign Upton, they will lose their 3nd rounder, having given up their 2nd rounder for Zimmerman and their first rounder is protected. Padres will add the #29 pick, pushing the Mets pick to #31 and their 2nd rounder, not that this is a big deal, from #63 to 64.

Assuming upton happens, just 4 compensation free agents remaining

SS Ian Desmond, Nationals - unsigned
OF Dexter Fowler, Cubs - unsigned
RHP Yovani Gallardo, Rangers - unsigned (Jays rumored to be interested - that won't affect our picks if it happens)
2B Howie Kendrick, Dodgers - unsigned

#21 can still slide to 17 or 18 if all goes well, but . . . I don't think it'll move much if at all at this point. Most of the 10 teams ahead of us seem to value their draft picks too much. Will be interesting to see what Desmond, Fowler & Kendrick end up settling for. Ouch.

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"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:22 pm 
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Practically A Wilpon

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Let's hope Baltimore signs Gallardo.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:22 pm 
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ilikeike29 wrote:
Let's hope Baltimore signs Gallardo.


I think it's pretty much a done deal at this point. Moves the Mets to 20, doesn't change #31.

If Baltimore signs Fowler too, that won't change anything for us. If the Whitesox sign Desmond, our #31 slides to #32 cause the Nats compensation pick goes ahead of us with Kendrick the only remaining compensation free agent.

20, 32, and I think, 64, 100. Not bad.

_________________
"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 draft pick watch.
PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:53 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
ilikeike29 wrote:
Let's hope Baltimore signs Gallardo.


I think it's pretty much a done deal at this point. Moves the Mets to 20, doesn't change #31.

If Baltimore signs Fowler too, that won't change anything for us. If the Whitesox sign Desmond, our #31 slides to #32 cause the Nats compensation pick goes ahead of us with Kendrick the only remaining compensation free agent.

20, 32, and I think, 64, 100. Not bad.

Fowler signing with Baltimore would move #31 up to #30.

Also, Kendrick signed with the Dodgers.


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