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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:41 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
I'm just going to drop a D+ on this draft right now.


I'd give them a better grade than that based on Dunn alone. People saying he's a potential top 10 talent. Add several potential nice picks between #31-Round 14. I think they're in C+ range at the absolutely lowest, possibly in the Bs.


Its really tough to grade a draft during a draft.

Based on adherence to things like "their board", "getting guys they liked", "finding guys they think can be nice players", "getting someone they may have been a bit higher on because they saw him so much" and "thinking this guys has a chance to help out", there's no doubt they scored an A+.

Based on adherence to picking in the exact order of the BA Top 500, or picking guys that observers who have never seen a picture of let alone play baseball say things like "Wow he's got huge upside" or "Toolsy ool" or "Me likey", they definitely got an F.

So, I mean, I can go either way. On the one hand, its great to guys in the system we liked. On the other, it absolutely sucks that they're all terrible.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:26 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
I'm just going to drop a D+ on this draft right now.


I'd give them a better grade than that based on Dunn alone. People saying he's a potential top 10 talent. Add several potential nice picks between #31-Round 14. I think they're in C+ range at the absolutely lowest, possibly in the Bs.


Its really tough to grade a draft during a draft.

Based on adherence to things like "their board", "getting guys they liked", "finding guys they think can be nice players", "getting someone they may have been a bit higher on because they saw him so much" and "thinking this guys has a chance to help out", there's no doubt they scored an A+.

Based on adherence to picking in the exact order of the BA Top 500, or picking guys that observers who have never seen a picture of let alone play baseball say things like "Wow he's got huge upside" or "Toolsy ool" or "Me likey", they definitely got an F.

So, I mean, I can go either way. On the one hand, its great to guys in the system we liked. On the other, it absolutely sucks that they're all terrible.


I totally got your point, in fact, I got it the first time you made it. This is at least the 3rd, but that's not really where I'm coming from.

Alex Nelson said (and it's been quoted here at least once) that the difference between a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick is very small. Take Nimmo for example who BA had somewhere in the 30s, but many people (not just me), I think over half, liked the Nimmo pick because he had upside. He'd played relatively little baseball so there could have been a faster learning curve once he played full time.

I liked Alfonso because he's a bat. I don't care where BA ranked him. I also liked what I saw of his video and his photo. He looks like a baseball player. If we assume that there's not much difference between who BA puts 50 and who they put 150, and the mets draft a guy who can hit - and I like how he looks when I look up his video - that's enough for me. Others might have wanted an athletic HSer and there were several still on board. I think a guy who can actually hit has real upside too, just as much as a more coveted HS pick, so I look at Alonso as an upside pick. A guy who has a shot at being an above average starter in the 2nd round is an upside pick. When they drafted Matt Reynolds in the 2nd round, they saw him as a bench upside/below average starter, maybe. Most of us weren't crazy about the Reynold's pick (me included), though his sizeable underslot helped the pick some.

But point taken. My language of "mets saw something they liked" was a bit pointless. I was mostly happy that they drafted a guy who can hit. Give me the guy with 1 tool (though hit for average and power is actually 2 tools), but whatever. Enough with the athletic 18 year olds who might grow into something. I'm glad they drafted Alfonso. If he signs underslot, even better.

Rounds 3-5, I think BA would say the mets good value there, but the guy I like best is the guy they took round 2 and the pitcher at #19.


and yes, it's basically guessing to grade the draft, but, why not do it anyway, many posters here have opinions. I remember Metro begging the mets not to draft JP Crawford. He's now a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:33 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Alex Nelson said (and it's been quoted here at least once) that the difference between a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick is very small.


I'm not disagreeing with anything you said but just want to make sure we're being accurate with that Alex Nelson comment. He said the difference between 50 (a second round pick) and 100 (a third round pick) is smaller than you can believe.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:48 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
But point taken. My language of "mets saw something they liked" was a bit pointless. I was mostly happy that they drafted a guy who can hit. Give me the guy with 1 tool (though hit for average and power is actually 2 tools), but whatever. Enough with the athletic 18 year olds who might grow into something. I'm glad they drafted Alfonso. If he signs underslot, even better.


a) who said he's going to sign underslot?

b) the people on the negative side of this one are so bc he's low on the defensive spectrum and that means he's make or break all on the bat.

c) have you ever not liked a Mets draft choice? I kid, sort of. "The Mets must've seen something" can be said of all 41 picks if one wanted to mount a defense of any of them, no?


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:55 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
But point taken. My language of "mets saw something they liked" was a bit pointless. I was mostly happy that they drafted a guy who can hit. Give me the guy with 1 tool (though hit for average and power is actually 2 tools), but whatever. Enough with the athletic 18 year olds who might grow into something. I'm glad they drafted Alfonso. If he signs underslot, even better.


a) who said he's going to sign underslot?

b) the people on the negative side of this one are so bc he's low on the defensive spectrum and that means he's make or break all on the bat.

c) have you ever not liked a Mets draft choice? I kid, sort of. "The Mets must've seen something" can be said of all 41 picks if one wanted to mount a defense of any of them, no?



Well, I actually said "if he signs underslot, even better" but I'd like him either way.

and there's a few picks I wasn't crazy about, Matt Reynolds comes to mind. Cecchini, but, I do tend to like most, so your point is fair. Now, I didn't hate either of those guys, but I wasn't particularly happy with either.

I'm neutral on Kay, would be happy to be wrong. I'm less high on Tiberi than most, I mean, I like him, but I'm not blown away, cause I don't know if he sticks at 3rd. I wasn't a big fan of Eudor Garcia. That pick struck me as remarkably average since he's a 3rd baseman's bat and a 1st baseman's glove.

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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:06 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Its really tough to grade a draft during a draft.

Based on adherence to things like "their board", "getting guys they liked", "finding guys they think can be nice players", "getting someone they may have been a bit higher on because they saw him so much" and "thinking this guys has a chance to help out", there's no doubt they scored an A+.

Based on adherence to picking in the exact order of the BA Top 500, or picking guys that observers who have never seen a picture of let alone play baseball say things like "Wow he's got huge upside" or "Toolsy ool" or "Me likey", they definitely got an F.

So, I mean, I can go either way. On the one hand, its great to guys in the system we liked. On the other, it absolutely sucks that they're all terrible.


I totally got your point, in fact, I got it the first time you made it. This is at least the 3rd, but that's not really where I'm coming from.

Alex Nelson said (and it's been quoted here at least once) that the difference between a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick is very small. Take Nimmo for example who BA had somewhere in the 30s, but many people (not just me), I think over half, liked the Nimmo pick because he had upside. He'd played relatively little baseball so there could have been a faster learning curve once he played full time.

I liked Alfonso because he's a bat. I don't care where BA ranked him. I also liked what I saw of his video and his photo. He looks like a baseball player. If we assume that there's not much difference between who BA puts 50 and who they put 150, and the mets draft a guy who can hit - and I like how he looks when I look up his video - that's enough for me. Others might have wanted an athletic HSer and there were several still on board. I think a guy who can actually hit has real upside too, just as much as a more coveted HS pick, so I look at Alonso as an upside pick. A guy who has a shot at being an above average starter in the 2nd round is an upside pick. When they drafted Matt Reynolds in the 2nd round, they saw him as a bench upside/below average starter, maybe. Most of us weren't crazy about the Reynold's pick (me included), though his sizeable underslot helped the pick some.

But point taken. My language of "mets saw something they liked" was a bit pointless. I was mostly happy that they drafted a guy who can hit. Give me the guy with 1 tool (though hit for average and power is actually 2 tools), but whatever. Enough with the athletic 18 year olds who might grow into something. I'm glad they drafted Alfonso. If he signs underslot, even better.

Rounds 3-5, I think BA would say the mets good value there, but the guy I like best is the guy they took round 2 and the pitcher at #19.


and yes, it's basically guessing to grade the draft, but, why not do it anyway, many posters here have opinions. I remember Metro begging the mets not to draft JP Crawford. He's now a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.


The point was not to criticize you. I didn't even know you personally made that comment. The point is that EVERYONE makes that comment and its entirely meaningless, but its still a comment we hear all the time from people justifying a pick that otherwise would seem to be one that others might criticize.

My point has mostly been about mocking the attempts to put a definitive mark on any draft pick, because you can pretty much say whatever you want about a given pick based on what you want the narrative to be. And I mean this for everyone, not a specific person. This is exactly the approach Tommy Tanuous takes in his draft recaps to Rubin:

If you want to be positive:
If the guy is a performer, cite his stats. If they guy didn't perform, cite his tools. If the scouting reports are good, quote them. If the scouting reports are bad, claim your scouts have something different.

If you want to be negative:
If the guy is a performer, note his light tools. If they guy didn't perform, cite his bad stats. If the scouting reports are good, question the source. If the scouting reports are bad, cite the BA Top 500 as bible.

Thats my point. Arguing about a D+ versus a C grade on a draft seems...ridiculous, to be honest. Its literally the most subjective thing any of us will do. There is no objective way for anyone's grades on this thing to be any more definitive than others.

Its mostly fun to simply throw in good feeling/bad feeling in guys' individual pages so when we call them back up in 5 years we can see who was "right" - but that doesn't mean they were necessarily basing that opinion on anything. Its fun to call out people who mocked Jacob deGrom's selection, but given the info we had (not a college performer, mediocre stuff from a late pitcher convert, not the most athletic build), is someone who for whatever reason said "I like this deGrom kid!" really "right", or are they just a hapless romantic who'll find something to like in anyone, and while that approach will typically swing-and-miss 90% of the time, maybe you get to call back to one now and then?

Conversely, someone who hates the entire draft is going to be proven right 90% of the time, but does that make him/her an expert, or just a whiner?


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:21 am 
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^^^^ that's exactly why I hate copping out and being Mr. Grouch about every pick. I'll likely "hit" on 95% of the posts saying "this pick blows, this guy won't make it out of AA" because... like most picks don't make it out of AA.

Precisely why I say stuff like "Kay is a low ceiling guy, he should be a solid bet to make it to the majors, has "pitchability" which is key for not-premium stuff. NOT the type of pick you make at 31, very little upside, #4SP?"

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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:30 am 
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tejdog1 wrote:
^^^^ that's exactly why I hate copping out and being Mr. Grouch about every pick. I'll likely "hit" on 95% of the posts saying "this pick blows, this guy won't make it out of AA" because... like most picks don't make it out of AA.

Precisely why I say stuff like "Kay is a low ceiling guy, he should be a solid bet to make it to the majors, has "pitchability" which is key for not-premium stuff. NOT the type of pick you make at 31, very little upside, #4SP?"

It's a cop out not to weigh in with any views on these picks...


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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:39 am 
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tejdog1 wrote:
^^^^ that's exactly why I hate copping out and being Mr. Grouch about every pick. I'll likely "hit" on 95% of the posts saying "this pick blows, this guy won't make it out of AA" because... like most picks don't make it out of AA.

Precisely why I say stuff like "Kay is a low ceiling guy, he should be a solid bet to make it to the majors, has "pitchability" which is key for not-premium stuff. NOT the type of pick you make at 31, very little upside, #4SP?"


I think if you're down on the picks, you'll wind up being right a lot more often than not / at least, in a certain sense. I think we all realize that less than 10% of these guys will even see majors. That said, I'm with Heynow on this one, if you want to critisize, feel free. It'll make the picks you praise stand out a bit more.

and, all that said, a pick like Vinny Siena or Jeff McNeil - those turned out to be good picks cause they've outperformed what was expected of them, at least, in my opinion. Even if neither guy sees majors for later picks, both of those guys have been solid by my definition. There's nothing wrong with bragging rights for a late round pick, even if the guy never sees majors but he hits 300 in the minors. I think people who praised Jeff McNeil at the time (were there any?), well they got it right. He's got a shot at seeing majors / 40 man protection next year. That's farther than most draftees get.

(and maybe we should move this discussion off poor Adam Atkins' thread), but what are you gunna do.

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 Post subject: Re: 2016 Mets Draft, Round 18, Pick 550 rhp Adam Atkins
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:38 am 
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