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 Post subject: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 9:13 pm 
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As a guideline, figure pretty much everyone 1-19 signs (that's about par for the course). 1-19 (20 picks), 3 HS, 17 college.

20-40, (21 picks), 13 HS, 8 college. Figure about half or a bit more of the college guys sign, most of the HS picks 20 and later don't (that's just statistics based on history).

So mostly the draft should be graded on rounds 1-19 and we can say they all sign for grading purposes. Individual grades are welcome but I'm looking for grading the mets draft overall.

and I know, draft's can't really be graded till 3 or 4 years later, so . . . this is just for poster's thoughts after the draft overall. (We can assign a D from Tej and an F from nighty, right?)

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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 9:36 pm 
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I know I shouldn't post first in my own thread, but, my thoughts:

#1 Dunn - potential upside pick, better than #19. Mets may have scored with him. He alone gets at least a B+ for this pick (not the overall draft).

#1s Kay - solid late 1st round pick. Maybe not exciting, but #35 ranking by BA. He's got 30s talent I think. Not a bad pick, hope he underslots a little.

#2 Alfonso - big controversial one, some might say 3rd/4th round talent taken in teh 2nd round but I like the potential bat and I think he's a solid pickup, especially if he underslots.

#3 Tiberi - others seem to like him more than me. If he sticks at 3rd he's interesting but he does look a little big to me. Jury's still out.

#4 Paez - probably becomes a 2nd baseman with some pop in his bat. 4th rounder. Looks to me like another solid if not that exciting move. Jury's still out.

#5 Woodmansee - 6'3 and athletic, looks the part of a SS but if he puts on weight might need to move to 3rd. Possibly a 2nd/3rd round talent. I kind of like what the mets did rounds 2-5, they picked 4 guys who could turn into MLB regulars if things break right. Nothing wrong with that.

#6 Viall - batters get ready to duck, but there's nothing wrong drafting a lottory ticket like him here. If he learns control he's got 2nd round stuff. Worth a gamble.

Round 7, 8 - presumably big underslots.

#9, Holderman - I think everybody likes this pick.

#10 Cone, a college OF who hit for average, probably underslots, but guys like him, kind remind me of Siena, Kaz, McNeil, Biondi. Worth a look, probably underslots too. I'm curious.

#11, 12, 14 - lumping these 3 together. Mets drafted 3 Jake Simon types (OK, 3 righty Jake Simons) and this is a good place to spend some money on remaining HS pitchers with some potential upside. I'm never going to say no to top 300 ranking HS pitchers early day 3.

#13, a glove first catcher, as opposed to the bat first catchers the mets have focused on in previous years. Nothing to dislike about this pick. Fingers crossed that he works out.

In a sense, you can probably sotp here as the top 14 guys are the heart of the draft. 15-19 will probably sign but longer shots to be interesting prospects.

- - -

anyhoo

the Pitching additions look interesting, Duff, Kay, Holderman, maybe Viall and 3 HSers all in the BA top 500. I think that's a solid boost to our pitching prospects.

The hitters, all college guys, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B rounds 2-5 and an OF and C rounds 10 & 13.

I'm going to give the draft an Early grade of a B with a shot at becoming B+. I like what they did and I think they added a nice mix of talent. Maybe light on HSers to dream on, but overall I still like it.

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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 10:24 pm 
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1-19: D, maybe a D+. I just don't see it outside of Dunn and the Duda clone (Alfonso). I do like both of them, tho Alfonso maybe went a round or two early, but whatever, I can rationalize that pick, it makes sense to me. The two shortstops sound like neither will stick there so bleh. Viall is basically Parnell, upside lotto ticket, so whatever.

20-40 is where the fun begins but as pointed out in the OP, a lot of likely no-signs.

Just a very ho-hum, boring, no upside, did nothing to help us draft. There's just no substance, nothing to sink your teeth into.

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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 10:27 pm 
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tejdog1 wrote:
1-19: D, maybe a D-. I just don't see it outside of Dunn and the Duda clone (Alfonso). I do like both of them, tho Alfonso maybe went a round or two early, but whatever, I can rationalize that pick, it makes sense to me. The two shortstops sound like neither will stick there so bleh. Viall is basically Parnell, upside lotto ticket, so whatever.

20-40 is where the fun begins but as pointed out in the OP, a lot of likely no-signs.

Just a very ho-hum, boring, no upside, did nothing to help us draft. There's just no substance, nothing to sink your teeth into.


SO didn't like the High Schoolers drafted 11-13?


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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 10:35 pm 
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Planck sounds intriguing, 6'3/210 so not much projection left, though. Maybe if you clean up the mechanics and he gets a bit stronger you get a couple more ticks to bump him up to 93-95 T97 and he has a mid rotation ceiling. FV 45?

Cleveland sounds like no projection left.
James is intriguing a bit.

But no, they don't really move the needle TOO much for me. D+ to C-, maybe.

Edit - but that should've read D/D+, not D/D-.

If we're going the traditional school grading system, I give this draft a 68-72

Edit 2: Holderman. Forgot him. He sounds really good.

Bump that 68-72 up to a solid C-/C draft. 71-75.

But I mean, my overall point still stands. VERY little upside here, VERY few chances taken, just overall not a whole lot of ceiling. It's a very conservative, very timid draft class outside of a guy here and a guy there. So yeah, they did OK for themselves, but... don't you want better than that? I think you do.

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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 10:54 pm 
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A. Lots of upside; lots of guys we liked. Lots of guys who were high on our board. Lots of guys who we think can be contributors. Good stuff.


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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 10:59 pm 
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tejdog1 wrote:
20-40 is where the fun begins but as pointed out in the OP, a lot of likely no-signs.


I was just going on history

2012 - 1 HS signed after 20
2013 - 2
2014 - 3
2015 - 1

College picks after 20 have something like a 50% chance of signing, maybe 60%.

Now, they could surprise and sign 4 HS this year after 20, or something, so . . . who knows. I was just looking for grades based on history.

if you were to pick a favorite 5 or 6 20-40, who would they be? Inquiring minds want to know.

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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:01 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
A. Lots of upside; lots of guys we liked. Lots of guys who were high on our board. Lots of guys who we think can be contributors. Good stuff.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:16 pm 
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I give it a D. Other than Dunn not overly impressed with any of the picks.


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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:16 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:

if you were to pick a favorite 5 or 6 20-40, who would they be? Inquiring minds want to know.


I really doubt anyone actually gives a f*** what I have to think lol. But a personal top 5/6?

1. Justin Dunn
2. Peter Alonso
3. Colin Holderman
4. Chris Viall
5. Cam Planck
6. idk, Christian James.

Neither of the "shortstops" we took in rounds 4 or 5 sound all that appealing to me.

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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:17 pm 
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It's hard to grade the draft when you don't know whose going to sign but in general I liked the pitchers selected. The hitters (aside from Wolf) don't really seem to have a lot of upside. Besides this regime really hasn't shown they know how to develop any hitting.


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 Post subject: Re: Grade the draft - early version.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:41 pm 
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Anyone else feel like the Mets seem to alternate every year and go high upside/risk with early picks in odd years and more conservative with early picks in even years? Looking at 2010 to 2016, that seems to be a general trend.

I like Dunn a lot, think Kay is solid. Alonso is so limited defensively that there will be a razor-thin margin for error in his bat, and Tiberi has hit well in college but does not appear to be a good athlete. As a fan, I am naturally biased toward high-upside picks because they are more fun to dream on than the college players with proven track records but also clear limitations.

I can't really evaluate rounds 4-10 until I see how much money they saved (I hope it's a lot because I don't see an overslot talent in any of those rounds). Planck, Cleveland, and James all seem like good young arms to get in the system. Cortes sounds like an interesting wild card. Of the unlikely signs, I like Urena the best.

I'm in the C+ range for now but could go as high as a B or as low as a C- depending on how many of interesting 11-40 picks sign.


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