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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:19 pm 
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Again.... people are allowed to critique the strategy unless/until they not only take interesting $$ HS players but also sign them.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:05 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:

4th senior in a row. What a strategy


Some basic math.

Rounds 6-10, 237.6, 186.2, 153.4, 139.7, 132.3 5 rounds combined, 849.2 combined, lets say $850K to round.

Lets say the team wants to sign 2 high priced guys (Colin Holderman - 400K, Jake Simon 400 K and Matt Cleveland, 300K.) and they like a handful of guys at 10K each - lets say 5 guys.

8 picks, 5 guys for 10 K each, 3 guys for 400, 400 and 300. 5 slots totalling 850K.

If they sign the 5 guys each for 10K rounds 5-10, that's 50K out of the 850 K, leaving 800 to go over, 300 over for Holderman, 300 over for Simon, 200 over for Planck.

Now, if they want to sign the best players first, say, Simon round 6, Holderman round 7, Cleveland round 8, then the 5 guys for 10K.

They've gone 172 over for Simon, 214 over for Holerman and 147 over for Cleveland, before saving 130 and 122 off round 9 and 10. This strategy, they're 270K over budget and that's not good.

The risk with waiting for round 11 to start drafting Simons and Holdermans is that they might be gone by then. The upside to waiting to round 11, in this scenario, $270K more spending money, added to the 100K minimum, that's a $370 K signing. in exchange for going 5 college seniors rounds 6-10.

It's a win if there's a lot of depth in the draft. If there's 3-5 guys you like still there on day 3, then sign the college seniors day 2 and you have more money. If the guys you want are gone by day 3 - the plan backfired.

Personally I think the mets might be onto something signing 5 college seniors on day 2. They found an untapped market and they saved cash for high-school picks on day 3.

The 11th-40th round cutoff is now 125k.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:41 pm 
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Quote:
The selection of Chadwick so soon in the draft came as a surprise to many. He started the season with some promise, quickly sliding into the role of closer for the Diamond Hogs. He lost the job midway through the year, and struggled to regain the confidence of head coach Dave Van Horn.


The junk-throwing righty finished the year with a 3.36 ERA, striking out 38 batters in 32 innings pitched. He only walked five, but developed an unfortunate penchant for hitting batters, awarding nine bases violently in just 24 outings.


http://5newsonline.com/2017/06/13/chadw ... mlb-draft/

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:44 pm 
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ilikeike29 wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:

4th senior in a row. What a strategy


Some basic math.

Rounds 6-10, 237.6, 186.2, 153.4, 139.7, 132.3 5 rounds combined, 849.2 combined, lets say $850K to round.

Lets say the team wants to sign 2 high priced guys (Colin Holderman - 400K, Jake Simon 400 K and Matt Cleveland, 300K.) and they like a handful of guys at 10K each - lets say 5 guys.

8 picks, 5 guys for 10 K each, 3 guys for 400, 400 and 300. 5 slots totalling 850K.

If they sign the 5 guys each for 10K rounds 5-10, that's 50K out of the 850 K, leaving 800 to go over, 300 over for Holderman, 300 over for Simon, 200 over for Planck.

Now, if they want to sign the best players first, say, Simon round 6, Holderman round 7, Cleveland round 8, then the 5 guys for 10K.

They've gone 172 over for Simon, 214 over for Holerman and 147 over for Cleveland, before saving 130 and 122 off round 9 and 10. This strategy, they're 270K over budget and that's not good.

The risk with waiting for round 11 to start drafting Simons and Holdermans is that they might be gone by then. The upside to waiting to round 11, in this scenario, $270K more spending money, added to the 100K minimum, that's a $370 K signing. in exchange for going 5 college seniors rounds 6-10.

It's a win if there's a lot of depth in the draft. If there's 3-5 guys you like still there on day 3, then sign the college seniors day 2 and you have more money. If the guys you want are gone by day 3 - the plan backfired.

Personally I think the mets might be onto something signing 5 college seniors on day 2. They found an untapped market and they saved cash for high-school picks on day 3.

The 11th-40th round cutoff is now 125k.


1) - oops.

2) - that makes the effect a bit larger.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:51 pm 
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Eventually there's going to be a team that's going to use the strategy of just selecting the best player available in all 40 rounds and they are going to use the strategy of "if your professional career is delayed because your greedy it's not our problem". I really don't see the strategy of drafting a player that you know has no shot of making the majors. I would much rather draft a player that a had a very slim chance of signing but has a legit shot at making the majors one day.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:53 pm 
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Ryan Gunhouse's cousin, I assume?

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:11 am 
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piazzafan wrote:
Eventually there's going to be a team that's going to use the strategy of just selecting the best player available in all 40 rounds and they are going to use the strategy of "if your professional career is delayed because your greedy it's not our problem". I really don't see the strategy of drafting a player that you know has no shot of making the majors. I would much rather draft a player that a had a very slim chance of signing but has a legit shot at making the majors one day.

I disagree with basically every single sentence here.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:16 am 
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ilikeike29 wrote:
piazzafan wrote:
Eventually there's going to be a team that's going to use the strategy of just selecting the best player available in all 40 rounds and they are going to use the strategy of "if your professional career is delayed because your greedy it's not our problem". I really don't see the strategy of drafting a player that you know has no shot of making the majors. I would much rather draft a player that a had a very slim chance of signing but has a legit shot at making the majors one day.

I disagree with basically every single sentence here.


Seconded. Don't you lose the slot money if you don't sign anyone for a given round, thus the logic of drafting a bunch of seniors who are sure things to sign?

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:18 am 
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northway wrote:
ilikeike29 wrote:
piazzafan wrote:
Eventually there's going to be a team that's going to use the strategy of just selecting the best player available in all 40 rounds and they are going to use the strategy of "if your professional career is delayed because your greedy it's not our problem". I really don't see the strategy of drafting a player that you know has no shot of making the majors. I would much rather draft a player that a had a very slim chance of signing but has a legit shot at making the majors one day.

I disagree with basically every single sentence here.


Seconded. Don't you lose the slot money if you don't sign anyone for a given round, thus the logic of drafting a bunch of seniors who are sure things to sign?


Correct.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:47 am 
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And your first round pick for two seasons if you exceed your pool by 5.01%+

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:57 am 
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piazzafan wrote:
Eventually there's going to be a team that's going to use the strategy of just selecting the best player available in all 40 rounds and they are going to use the strategy of "if your professional career is delayed because your greedy it's not our problem". I really don't see the strategy of drafting a player that you know has no shot of making the majors. I would much rather draft a player that a had a very slim chance of signing but has a legit shot at making the majors one day.


I know it's ridiculous, but I love the idea of ignoring the rules by picking the 40 best players and paying them.

Then the next year when they penalize you for that you do the exact same thing in the International market.

Then when they penalize you Internationally you come back to the Draft.

Rise. Repeat. It cuts into your development every other year, but you wind up with nothing but high end talent.


8)

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 NYM Draft: Round 09, Pick 277 RHP Cannon Chadwick
PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:38 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
piazzafan wrote:
Eventually there's going to be a team that's going to use the strategy of just selecting the best player available in all 40 rounds and they are going to use the strategy of "if your professional career is delayed because your greedy it's not our problem". I really don't see the strategy of drafting a player that you know has no shot of making the majors. I would much rather draft a player that a had a very slim chance of signing but has a legit shot at making the majors one day.


I know it's ridiculous, but I love the idea of ignoring the rules by picking the 40 best players and paying them.

Then the next year when they penalize you for that you do the exact same thing in the International market.

Then when they penalize you Internationally you come back to the Draft.

Rise. Repeat. It cuts into your development every other year, but you wind up with nothing but high end talent.


8)


You lose 2 first round picks for going 10% over. So if you did that approach once, you sacrifice 2 first rounders over the next 2 years. It still might work, but the team would be paying a 100% tax on every dollar over and lose 2 first rounders. The fact that no team has done it (and like 8 teams have done the max penalty on the international signing period), suggests to me that teams don't see the go way over budget on the draft is a good approach.

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I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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