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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Sun Jan 30, 2011 12:34 am 
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hotlyds87 wrote:
northway wrote:
Ciarán wrote:
Down with Mubarak! If the Egyptians want an Islamist form of government, let them lay their own bed. Once they get a taste of its reality, they will soon reject it.


Nothing suggests that this is an Islamist movement.


Not yet - but the Brotherhood is starting to have more of a role. Basically any movement like this carries the risk of a vacuum that could be filled by several different types of groups and might not be democratic. Probably the main reason the Administration is treading a little lightly here.


Anything is more democratic than Mubarrak, and the Brotherhood is not particularly anti-democratic. They've been persecuted more than any opposition group in Egypt over the last fifty years. At this point you've got secular intellectuals and Islamic fundamentalists in the streets together. That's a good thing. Continuing to back Mubarrak is the best way to insure that the next generation of Egyptians absolutely hates us. Egypt's military is still top dog, and they'll never go against the US, considering they get over a billion a year in funding from us.

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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:39 pm 
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northway wrote:
hotlyds87 wrote:
northway wrote:
Nothing suggests that this is an Islamist movement.


Not yet - but the Brotherhood is starting to have more of a role. Basically any movement like this carries the risk of a vacuum that could be filled by several different types of groups and might not be democratic. Probably the main reason the Administration is treading a little lightly here.


Anything is more democratic than Mubarrak, and the Brotherhood is not particularly anti-democratic. They've been persecuted more than any opposition group in Egypt over the last fifty years. At this point you've got secular intellectuals and Islamic fundamentalists in the streets together. That's a good thing. Continuing to back Mubarrak is the best way to insure that the next generation of Egyptians absolutely hates us. Egypt's military is still top dog, and they'll never go against the US, considering they get over a billion a year in funding from us.


Sounds a lot like the Iran situation in 1979. We're still reaping the repurcussions of seeming too friendly with the Shah when he was clearly going to relinquish power. Knowing when to cut ties is extremely important in this type of situation.

John Kerry on NPR this morning suggested that Mubarrak agree to hold elections in the very, very near future that he would agree not to participate in, while forming in interim government to govern up until the elections. Seems like a decent idea to me.

As far as I've heard the Muslim Brotherhood is not necessarily large enough or popular enough to take control of the government in a legitimate democratic election. Though whoever does take control of the goverment would probably be wise to allow their participation in it.

If I had to guess based on my limited knowledge of the situation, I'd say general elections would lead to a rule somewhat similar to Turkey's AK Party.


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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:06 pm 
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http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130

A leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt told the Arabic-language Iranian news network Al-Alam on Monday that he would like to see the Egyptian people prepare for war against Israel, according to the Hebrew-language business newspaper Calcalist.

Muhammad Ghannem reportedly told Al- Alam that the Suez Canal should be closed immediately, and that the flow of gas from Egypt to Israel should cease “in order to bring about the downfall of the Mubarak regime.” He added that “the people should be prepared for war against Israel,” saying the world should understand that “the Egyptian people are prepared for anything to get rid of this regime.”

Ghannem praised Egyptian soldiers deployed by President Hosni Mubarak to Egyptian cities, saying they “would not kill their brothers.” He added that Washington was forced to abandon plans to help Mubarak stay in power after “seeing millions head for the streets.”


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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:57 pm 
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SHPIDA wrote:
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130

A leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt told the Arabic-language Iranian news network Al-Alam on Monday that he would like to see the Egyptian people prepare for war against Israel, according to the Hebrew-language business newspaper Calcalist.

Muhammad Ghannem reportedly told Al- Alam that the Suez Canal should be closed immediately, and that the flow of gas from Egypt to Israel should cease “in order to bring about the downfall of the Mubarak regime.” He added that “the people should be prepared for war against Israel,” saying the world should understand that “the Egyptian people are prepared for anything to get rid of this regime.”

Ghannem praised Egyptian soldiers deployed by President Hosni Mubarak to Egyptian cities, saying they “would not kill their brothers.” He added that Washington was forced to abandon plans to help Mubarak stay in power after “seeing millions head for the streets.”


Read a little more into this, doesn't seem like the guy is exactly the leading member he's made out to be. http://globalmbreport.org/?p=3632 More so a "representive" in the UK who works for a magazine affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. I'd also take anything that goes through the Iranian media in regard to Israel with a grain of salt.


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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:53 pm 
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I'm not sure what the popular view is in Egypt, but I saw an English-speaking Eqyptian interviewed and he said one of the few things he gave Mubarak credit for was maintaining peace with Israel so that the country could concern itself with other things.

Indeed, he said Mubarak's failure to do more in other areas was one of Mubarak's greatest faults.

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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 10:48 pm 
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My Palestinian buddy (not the same) who has lived in Egypt and speaks Arabic (and reads Egyptian sources) said, word for word, that the Brotherhood is as overrated as the Mets in June. Just saying.

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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 10:39 am 
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northway wrote:
My Palestinian buddy (not the same) who has lived in Egypt and speaks Arabic (and reads Egyptian sources) said, word for word, that the Brotherhood is as overrated as the Mets in June. Just saying.


I hope that is true. If the Brotherhood really doesn't have a chance of taking over, then supporting these protesters becomes a lot simpler.


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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 11:16 am 
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hotlyds87 wrote:
northway wrote:
My Palestinian buddy (not the same) who has lived in Egypt and speaks Arabic (and reads Egyptian sources) said, word for word, that the Brotherhood is as overrated as the Mets in June. Just saying.


I hope that is true. If the Brotherhood really doesn't have a chance of taking over, then supporting these protesters becomes a lot simpler.


I think it would be a bit extreme to say that they don't have a chance, but I also believe that if you don't back the protesters there's a higher probability that the Brotherhood comes to power when Mubarrak does eventually fall. It's pretty much an untenable position to continue to back him at this point, and you really don't want to shackle yourself to him until the bitter end. I think the powers that be are handling the situation quite well, quietly telling Mubarrak that he needs to get moving on changing things before the situation gets worse. You don't want to get stuck being the last country in the world backing him.

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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2011 4:52 pm 
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Check this headline from the Jerusalem Post--

"Mubarak: If I resign, Egypt will descend into chaos"

I wonder how he defines what's happening now, or what will happen if he tries to stay in power.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=206692

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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2011 5:06 pm 
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Chico wrote:
Check this headline from the Jerusalem Post--

"Mubarak: If I resign, Egypt will descend into chaos"

I wonder how he defines what's happening now, or what will happen if he tries to stay in power.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=206692


"Mubarak: If I stay there will be trouble"
If he leaves there will be double

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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:09 pm 
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chinabox wrote:
Chico wrote:
Check this headline from the Jerusalem Post--

"Mubarak: If I resign, Egypt will descend into chaos"

I wonder how he defines what's happening now, or what will happen if he tries to stay in power.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=206692


"Mubarak: If I stay there will be trouble"
If he leaves there will be double


Well done

So come on and let me know


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 Post subject: Re: Egypt
PostPosted: Sat Feb 05, 2011 12:57 pm 
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Does this situation in Egypt remind anyone else of V for Vendetta? I know, it's a comic book and a movie, but still. I like that.


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