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 Post subject: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:15 am 
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That Obama will win re-election.

Predicting a pretty hefty 315 electoral votes for Obama

I've enjoyed his posts and analysis but this is pretty insane ... Or maybe it's too sane for a completely insane political climate

Either way this going to be very very interesting day today


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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:48 pm 
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Here is my prediction:

Obama: 303
Romney: 235

Electoral Map


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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:36 pm 
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Its quite clear to me that Romney cannot win enough hispanic votes - had he gotten that demographic the way Bush or even McCain had he'd probably win. You cannot win an election anymore with only white voters

whatever happens this is pretty dang exciting!!! like a heavyweight fight!!!! :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:36 am 
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So much for the predictions of a Romney landslide by Karl Rove and Dick Morris on Fox Monday night.

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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:03 pm 
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Sound statistical analysis beat empty headed pundits who based their assumptions on gut feelings

Stat nerds are the biggest winners today


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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:11 pm 
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It's one thing for Morris and Rove to predict a Romney electoral landslide, but listening to Chuck Todd a couple of times on Francesa was embarassing. A few weeks back he said it might take days to call, then just before the election he said it was leaning Obama. Dr. Wang at Princeton had it basically at %100 for Obama.
And the Silver critics were so obtuse - Scarborough et al. They acted as if Silver was calling for a popular vote whooping, which, of course, he never did. Silver himself compared it to a football game where one team has field goal lead but time is running out. Not to quibble with Nate the Great, but a better analogy would have been a soccer match. This was basically a 1-0 game, with one team (Obama) having complete control of the ball.

So now add math to things Right Wing nuts don't believe in.


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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2012 2:07 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2012 3:14 am 
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Ciarán wrote:
Its quite clear to me that Romney cannot win enough hispanic votes - had he gotten that demographic the way Bush or even McCain had he'd probably win. You cannot win an election anymore with only white voters

whatever happens this is pretty dang exciting!!! like a heavyweight fight!!!! :lol:


I think there is also a certain stigma involved with the GOP as well. It is true they face a national media disadvantage but it goes harder to the core than just the media playing favorites. They need to move farther away from the 1900's yet seem to be moving closer sometimes.

The times are changing and they need to change along with the rest of the country. It's like going door to door selling 8 tracks in the 1960's.

By the 70's everyone's laughing at you (where they are now). By 1990 nobody's even laughing anymore because you've become as obsolete and irrelevant as the 8 track...

They need to realize this because it's very important IMO. Full disclosure-

I do not hate the Republican Party.
I do dislike the far left and far right, yet I do not 'hate' them either.
I do absolutely hate when playing party politics means nothing effective (and in some cases necessary) gets done.


I actually believe the GOP has become a joke yet some of the Republican ideals and ideologies are worth researching and/or exploring to a certain extent. That is IMO the healthiest way of delving into the future when so much is on the line..

Hispanic vote-

It really depends on the people being spoken to... There isn't one person on this forum that 'represents' their race.

I agree with you 100% but I think there are different people to speak to. You will find that many hispanics (particularly from Cuba) are rather Conservative because it demonstrates not only the ideals of the family roots that are important to them but also their religious beliefs. Yet when many hispanics spend a generation living in this country their mindset does change, it is the reality of the situation. And when speaking of the youth of the nation you must realize you are also speaking of the hispanic community as it all ties in..

There is nothing that will attract the young hispanic vote to the GOP unless there is a significant reason to believe employment status will impove.

The Right's "Fear Factor" workshop does them no favors either. I mean, proclaiming everything going on in the country that is anti-conservative ideals is going to lead to armageddon isn't exactly going to attract mass amounts of young people no matter the race IMO.

Instead they should be promoting the ideas/ideology that they feel can lead to a more prosporous life for both the citizens and the nation.



Chico wrote:
So much for the predictions of a Romney landslide by Karl Rove and Dick Morris on Fox Monday night.


For the life of me I cannot understand what the hell Dick Morris brings to the table as a media member/ journalist other than writing children's books.

I always tell myself- Hey, he's a former political advisor to Clinton and a master of interpreting the national perception of political figures especially pollings!! So freakin what that he's a clown, baffoon, cheerleader and ignoramos.. He knows his stuff and should be judged on that primarily.

Then he goes out like that.. He is totally unimportant/irrelevant in my mind now. I mean why pay attention to him now? O'Reilly gave him a chance a week ago to come back to us with his 7 point prediction but ole Morris insisted the GOP would be responsible for the bigger turnout than the "smart Silver like libs" were predicting..Instead he counted on a huge turnout by the Oxymoron party-The conservative intellectuals..

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 8:36 pm 
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I don't understand how the Romney campaign was so surprised and impressed with the Obama ground game. Did they not pay any attention to 2008?

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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:09 pm 
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northway wrote:
I don't understand how the Romney campaign was so surprised and impressed with the Obama ground game. Did they not pay any attention to 2008?


The stories coming out now suggest that the "poll truther" movement started in Romney's own campaign.

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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:13 pm 
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chinabox wrote:
northway wrote:
I don't understand how the Romney campaign was so surprised and impressed with the Obama ground game. Did they not pay any attention to 2008?


The stories coming out now suggest that the "poll truther" movement started in Romney's own campaign.


That aside, did they suffer from such hubris that they completely overlooked the fact that both Hillary and McCain had the same attitude towards Obama's emphasis on field, and that they both suffered the consequences?

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Baseball has a way of ripping your ❤️ out, stabbing it, putting it back in your chest, then healing itself just in time for Spring Training. - Thor


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 Post subject: Re: Nate Silver presidential forecast is now at 92%
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2012 6:25 pm 
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Not sure if this belongs here or in the thread about state vouchers being used at schools that teach preposterous lessons.

Marco Rubio, being packaged as the next great hope of the GOP, can't or won't answer a question on how long the earth has been around and says it's a question for THEOLOGIANS. Not scientists, mind you, but theologians.

I'm not sure what would be worse, if he actually believes that or if he's pandering to the willfully ignorant among his party's voting base.

If this guy represents a bright new hope of a party, how can they be expected to be able to handle unwelcome hard data like what Nate produced?

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