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 Post subject: WAR
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 7:06 pm 
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Draft Pick

Joined: Sat Jan 31, 2009 9:48 pm
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I never really gave much credit to war stats. I recently ran across something though that has me changing my mind. it was on the playoff teams from 2011. of the 8 teams, 7 finished in the top 8 for total war. the 8th was #12. is there a site that gives final team WAR total for season? I have found some that just give player total, not team total. would be interesting to see where playoff teams finished.


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 7:07 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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mets66 wrote:
I never really gave much credit to war stats. I recently ran across something though that has me changing my mind. it was on the playoff teams from 2011. of the 8 teams, 7 finished in the top 8 for total war. the 8th was #12. is there a site that gives final team WAR total for season? I have found some that just give player total, not team total. would be interesting to see where playoff teams finished.



Fangraphs has team WAR

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 7:08 pm 
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Top 10 in position player WAR

Red Sox
Rays
A's
Dodgers
Orioles
Tigers
Angels
Giants
Braves
Reds

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 7:14 pm 
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Worst 5

30-Marlins
29-Astros
28-White Sox
27-Mariners
26-Phillies

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 9:36 pm 
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Practically A Wilpon

Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:52 pm
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Image


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 9:38 pm 
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Practically A Wilpon

Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:52 pm
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It's pretty impressive considering WAR is designed to correlate with pythagorean wins, rather than actual wins.


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 1:59 am 
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Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:57 pm
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Can the defensive measurements be trusted? The same for batted ball data. And I'm not sure I like adjusting for a position.

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:36 am 
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Legend of NYFS

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Teams with more good players win more game.

Isn't science great?


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:10 am 
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Veteran Presence

Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:14 am
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What is it good for?

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:15 am 
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Legend of NYFS

Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2009 10:33 pm
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MikeH wrote:
And I'm not sure I like adjusting for a position.

Why? You would argue it's as difficult to play 1B or be a DH than it is to play SS or C? If you don't make the adjustment you're treating all positions as equal.


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:04 am 
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Manager

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:54 pm
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Location: Vero Beach, FL
The positional adjustments are arguably the most reliable part of WAR, since they are based on the average values of each position, and thus you can use decades of data for a very large number of players to determine them. So we can be confident they are accurate.

We can't be confident in one year measures of a player's defensive value, as it takes a larger sample to be sure a defensive measure is an accurate reflection of a player's talent. However, we do know the one year measures are an accurate reflection of what actually happened. So they should still correlate well with actual wins. You just have to remember that there is some luck involved, before declaring "player x is a 5 WAR player" based on a one year sample.

Since WAR is based on the average run values of all the things that actually happened, actual batting events, actual balls fielded, actual results of pitches, it should work really well on any aggregate level, such as looking at team data. Any quirks are going to come from unusual individual players who somehow defy the averages, such as pitchers who have unique ability to limit hits on balls in play, or hitters who have unique abilities to perform in the clutch, things which aren't normally skills.


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 8:32 pm 
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Practically A Wilpon

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MikeH wrote:
Can the defensive measurements be trusted? The same for batted ball data. And I'm not sure I like adjusting for a position.

There's some talk that they will update UZR this offseason to factor in batted ball velocity. That would definitely make it a lot more reliable.


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