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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 11:47 am 
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WAR is just a way for non baseball people to reach the same conclusion real baseball people reach by watching guys play

Its the logical product of the "sound byte" generation

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:58 pm 
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Here is the link to Matt Garza's fangraphs page....can someone tell me why a guy who was 8 and 12 one year (2009,) 15 and 10 the next, with similar ERA's, manages to have a better WAR in his 8 and 12 year?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3340&position=P


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:48 pm 
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Steve The Original wrote:
Here is the link to Matt Garza's fangraphs page....can someone tell me why a guy who was 8 and 12 one year (2009,) 15 and 10 the next, with similar ERA's, manages to have a better WAR in his 8 and 12 year?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3340&position=P

For one, win-loss records have no bearing in WAR. Two, Fangraphs WAR uses FIP as it's component, not ERA.

In 2009, Garza had a 4.17 FIP, which was 1% above league average. In 2010, he had a 4.42 FIP, which was 11% worse than league average, hence the gap in WAR.

If you look at 2008 (+3.2 WAR) and 2009 (+2.9), you'll notice they are very similar due to nearly identical FIP (4.14 in 2008, 4.17 in 2009).


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:18 pm 
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nmigliore wrote:
Steve The Original wrote:
Here is the link to Matt Garza's fangraphs page....can someone tell me why a guy who was 8 and 12 one year (2009,) 15 and 10 the next, with similar ERA's, manages to have a better WAR in his 8 and 12 year?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3340&position=P

For one, win-loss records have no bearing in WAR. Two, Fangraphs WAR uses FIP as it's component, not ERA.

In 2009, Garza had a 4.17 FIP, which was 1% above league average. In 2010, he had a 4.42 FIP, which was 11% worse than league average, hence the gap in WAR.

If you look at 2008 (+3.2 WAR) and 2009 (+2.9), you'll notice they are very similar due to nearly identical FIP (4.14 in 2008, 4.17 in 2009).


Thanks!!! Also Nick, what is considered a reasonable WAR for a good middle reliever and 8th inning pitcher?


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:31 pm 
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Steve The Original wrote:
Thanks!!! Also Nick, what is considered a reasonable WAR for a good middle reliever and 8th inning pitcher?

No problem.

WAR is a little trickier with relievers, but to keep things simple, a useful reliever is pretty much anybody above replacement level. A good late-inning arm, 8th or 9th, is usually +1 WAR or better, with preferably small (or no) platoon splits.

Texas had the best bullpen in baseball last season by WAR and they had three relievers above +1 WAR: Nathan (+2.5), Cotts (+1.8 ), and Ross (+1.1), plus a couple others around that marker (Scheppers and Frasor at +0.8 each).

The very best relievers in baseball -- think of guys like Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland -- are generally worth between +2 and +3 WAR per year, though it's very tough to sustain that given the little amount of innings they contribute and their short shelf life.


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:06 pm 
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nmigliore wrote:
Steve The Original wrote:
Thanks!!! Also Nick, what is considered a reasonable WAR for a good middle reliever and 8th inning pitcher?

No problem.

WAR is a little trickier with relievers, but to keep things simple, a useful reliever is pretty much anybody above replacement level. A good late-inning arm, 8th or 9th, is usually +1 WAR or better, with preferably small (or no) platoon splits.

Texas had the best bullpen in baseball last season by WAR and they had three relievers above +1 WAR: Nathan (+2.5), Cotts (+1.8 ), and Ross (+1.1), plus a couple others around that marker (Scheppers and Frasor at +0.8 each).

The very best relievers in baseball -- think of guys like Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland -- are generally worth between +2 and +3 WAR per year, though it's very tough to sustain that given the little amount of innings they contribute and their short shelf life.


Thank you again!


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:12 am 
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If a shortstop hits well, is his batting WAR adjusted for his position? What about his baserunning WAR? Are positional adjustments made for that? Or is it his fielding WAR that is adjusted and nothing else?

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 10:39 am 
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MikeH wrote:
If a shortstop hits well, is his batting WAR adjusted for his position? What about his baserunning WAR? Are positional adjustments made for that? Or is it his fielding WAR that is adjusted and nothing else?

Batting and baserunning runs are based on the league, not the position: 0 is always average; > 0 is above average; < 0 is below average. Fangraphs decided to make things simple and combine the two, which is known as Offensive runs (or "Off") on player pages.

Fielding, however, IS specific to players at their position. For example, a SS with a +5 fielding rating means he was +5 runs above average at the position compared to other SS. Like the batting/baserunnings runs, 0 is average; > 0 is above average, < 0 is below average, but again, the key caveat is the fielding rating is based on other players at the position, NOT the entire league like batting/baserunning runs are. This is where the positional adjustment comes in: it essentially makes the proper run adjustment so that an average defensive 1B isn't treated the same as an average defensive SS. These are the following positional adjustments used by Fangraphs:

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

Fangraphs also decided to make things simple with the fielding/positional adjustment so they combined the two and formed Defensive runs (or "Def" on player pages). Looking at Defensive runs is the best way to compare all players defensively, regardless of positions. This way, the positional adjustment is already done for you.

For instance, Ian Desmond was worth +11.6 defensive runs last season. The actual fielding rating compared to other SS (+4.4) is in this along with the SS positional adjustment (+7.2). If you want to compare Desmond's defense to any player in baseball, regardless of position, use the +11.6 number.


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:29 pm 
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Thank you for the clarification, nm. Explained thoroughly and expertly.

I guess I'm just scared robots will take over the world.

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 9:42 pm 
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Yep. And those runs are runs above average not above replacement. A player who plays 162 games and has a 0 offensive rating and 0 defensive rating will end up with a WAR near 2.0.

For example, here is Daniel Murphy's 2013 calculations (161 games):
4.6 Batting + 6.4 Baserunning = 11 Offense
-6.1 Fielding + 1.8 Positional = -4.4 Defense
1.0 League Adjustment
19.9 Replacement Adjustment
11- 4.4 + 1 + 19.9 = 27.5 Runs Above Replacement (RAR)

27.5 RAR calculates out to 3.0 WAR. That conversion varies slightly year-to-year based on how many runs are needed in a given year to add one pythagorean win.


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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:52 pm 
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ilikeike29 wrote:
Yep. And those runs are runs above average not above replacement. A player who plays 162 games and has a 0 offensive rating and 0 defensive rating will end up with a WAR near 2.0.

For example, here is Daniel Murphy's 2013 calculations (161 games):
4.6 Batting + 6.4 Baserunning = 11 Offense
-6.1 Fielding + 1.8 Positional = -4.4 Defense
1.0 League Adjustment
19.9 Replacement Adjustment
11- 4.4 + 1 + 19.9 = 27.5 Runs Above Replacement (RAR)

27.5 RAR calculates out to 3.0 WAR. That conversion varies slightly year-to-year based on how many runs are needed in a given year to add one pythagorean win.


Isn't it usually RAR/10 = WAR? Or is that a good little handy mental formula?

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 Post subject: Re: WAR
PostPosted: Fri Jan 24, 2014 3:55 am 
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tejdog1 wrote:
ilikeike29 wrote:
Yep. And those runs are runs above average not above replacement. A player who plays 162 games and has a 0 offensive rating and 0 defensive rating will end up with a WAR near 2.0.

For example, here is Daniel Murphy's 2013 calculations (161 games):
4.6 Batting + 6.4 Baserunning = 11 Offense
-6.1 Fielding + 1.8 Positional = -4.4 Defense
1.0 League Adjustment
19.9 Replacement Adjustment
11- 4.4 + 1 + 19.9 = 27.5 Runs Above Replacement (RAR)

27.5 RAR calculates out to 3.0 WAR. That conversion varies slightly year-to-year based on how many runs are needed in a given year to add one pythagorean win.


Isn't it usually RAR/10 = WAR? Or is that a good little handy mental formula?

It's usually around that, but not exactly 10:1.


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