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 Post subject: 2015 Rul5 draft (is Rule 5 the new Moneyball?)
PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:08 pm 
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First, 2014 Summary

2014 got quite interesting rule 5 wins. Several players had solid seasons, first time that's happened in a while. There's no rule 5 ROY equivalent (R5OY) but if there was, 2014 would have seen some interesting names.

2014 draft

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: C Oscar Hernandez, (Rays) - injured most of the year. A bit of a "lucky break" (hamate bone) for the diamondbacks - could be a keeper.

2. Colorado Rockies: IF Mark Canha, (Marlins) - traded to the As, 16 homers,.254 .315 .426 .742 for the 26 year old. Respectable. He's a bat not a glove guy but could be solid.

3. Texas Rangers: OF Delino DeShields Jr., (Astros) - Nice get for the Rangers. 23 year old CF (glove rated as negative, but maybe he gets better). 25 SBs and .261 .344 .374 .718. Solid season.

4. Houston Astros: RHP Jason Garcia, (Red Sox), Garcia was traded to the O's and he's a guy we should be grateful to cause the O's elected to keep him over Verret. They liked both guys. Garcia didn't show much out of the pen and he's wild but the velocity is legit. Could be an nice pick-up.

5. Minnesota Twins: RHP J.R. Graham, (Braves) - he stuck around and pitched well enough out of the pen. Could be a solid pick-up and bullpen guy for a number of years.

6. Boston Red Sox: RHP Jandel Gustave, (Astros), selected out of low-A and went back to the Astros. If the Sox had a time machine, I wonder if they'd have protected Garcia, or was this a revenge pick, Astros picked their guy 2 picks earlier, they pick one of Houston's. (I don't know, just a guess). First guy not to stick.

7. Chicago Cubs: SS Taylor Featherston, (Rockies), sold to the Angels for Cash. Feathers stuck with the angels all year, and he hit like he didn't belong (.162 / 30 OPS+), but looks like he did very nicely with the glove (1.1 d-war in limited time), and the Angels held onto him, so now he's a guy they can send to AAA for batting practice. His minor league batting numbers look fine so he could be a player too. Little older but could be a nice pickup. 6 for 7 so far.

8. Philadelphia Phillies: IF Obudel (David) Herrera, (Rangers), in terms of numbers, he should be the R5OY in a run-away. Was solid with the bat and the glove giving him a 3.8 war. The Rangers added deShields Jr but lost this guy. How that works out in the long run, only time will tell, but I think the Phils are very happy with this selection.

Herrera's an interesting case, eligible for the 2013 rule 5 as well as a 16 year old international signing, who'd been in the minors 5 years but hadn't quite put it together. 2014 he was more interesting, he was a SS who became a 2nd baseman/LF cause the glove didn't quite work at SS, who the Phillies converted into a CF and he impressed like crazy in the spring and got the opening day starters job and held his own. Texas probably thought he wouldn't stick because of his glove though his bat was solid looking in the minors in 2014. He's an example of, sometimes, you get lucky. If he'd been loaded with tools, no way his numbers last till pick #8.

2014 rule 5 picks, 7 for 8 so far.

9. Miami Marlins: LHP Andrew McKirahan, (Cubs), he's another interesting story. Selected by the Marlins but didn't make their opening day 25, Braves took him off waivers and put the lefty on their opening day roster. A few days later he was suspended for us of Ipamorelin (PED) and suspended 80 games. The lefty didn't pitch all that well but could stick and if he does 8 for 9.

10. New York Mets: LHP Sean Gilmartin, (Twins) - we all know this one. Solid addition, 2014 rule 5 is now 9 for 10.

11. Atlanta Braves: RHP Daniel Winkler, (Rockies). Appears to have gotten injured and barely pitched. Still the Braves Property but needs to stick the better part of the first 90 days in 2016 or they lose him.

12. Seattle Mariners: LHP David Rollins, (Astros) - Rollins pitched pretty badly, (25 innings, 37 hits, 1.8 WHIP, saw some time on the IR, but he's still Mariners' property.

13. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Logan Verrett, Mets - we all know this one, after a brief stop in Texas, Verrett was returned to the Mets.

14. Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Andrew Oliver, Pirates. Oliver's unusual in that he was a guy who'd seen major leagues already after being a 2nd round pick but didn't stick in the majors (first time or this time). Spent all 2015 in the minors. More on him here. http://www.blessyouboys.com/detroit-tig ... ndy-oliver Drafted out of college in 2009 so he's not your typical rule 5 guy at all. Didn't stick though.

But there you have it, the first 12 picks, only 1 so far have been returned. 11 still remain selected. (unless I missed something). 2014 was a banner year for rule 5. Will 2015 be similar?

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and, I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018).


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 Rul5 draft (is Rule 5 the new Moneyball?)
PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:14 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:09 am
Posts: 11630
Location: Somebody's stolen my avatar
2015

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

4 teams selected 2 guys (Phils, Pads, Brewers, Reds) and the Pads traded for 2 more, they have 4 rule 5 guys coming to their spring training.

2 teams lost 2 guys (Yanks, Rays)

My guess is that it won't be as good as 2014, but who knows. Minor league rosters getting deeper should provide more talent in rule 5. Jake Cave (the guy some of us kinda liked), went #2.

Looking at the numbers, I think the Yankees may have taken the biggest talent hit. Cave is young enough to still become a pretty good player and the lefty pitcher they lost 1 pick later looks interesting. Lots of Ks.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/regis ... tcky001eva

Also, curious fact. Tyler Goeddel, taken #1 in the Rule 5 is Erik's younger brother.

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http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com

and, I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018).


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