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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 5:57 pm 
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By most measures Eli is about the 7th or 8th best QB this year, and this is probably his best year. Total QBR, the new metric, has him at 9th this year. I think the conventional QB rating has him at 7th. While he is very good, the NY media has become a bit over the top in praising him. They seem obsessed with the whole "elite QB" topic. He's very good, that should be enough for anyone.

Also, I disagree completely about Vick being one of the best QB's, not a fan at all. Any objective analysis would have the big 3, followed by Romo, then probably Schaub and Roethlisberger, then Eli. But also keep in mind that this is a Golden Age for QB's - there are more good ones in the league than at any time I can remember.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:14 pm 
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Genmet wrote:
By most measures Eli is about the 7th or 8th best QB this year, and this is probably his best year. Total QBR, the new metric, has him at 9th this year. I think the conventional QB rating has him at 7th. While he is very good, the NY media has become a bit over the top in praising him. They seem obsessed with the whole "elite QB" topic. He's very good, that should be enough for anyone.

Also, I disagree completely about Vick being one of the best QB's, not a fan at all. Any objective analysis would have the big 3, followed by Romo, then probably Schaub and Roethlisberger, then Eli. But also keep in mind that this is a Golden Age for QB's - there are more good ones in the league than at any time I can remember.


I don't dispute that at all, but the rules regarding contact against the receivers have become absurd. Past QBs would have put up better numbers if no one could touch their receivers, either.

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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:35 pm 
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Great point Chico. The receivers are monsters to begin with and every rule favors them.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:42 pm 
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Plus don't forgot these receivers and tight ends in particular are being utilized much more than any time in the past as well. Guys like Antonio Gates or Rob Gronkowski would be bigger than some linemen 30-40 years ago. To me, the evolution of the TE is one of the biggest changes to the game of the past five years or so, pioneered by Tony Gonzalez, originally, and in recent years by Belicheck's offense, which is based around Welker and two of the most athletic TEs in the league, Gronkowski and Hernandez. The evolution of the TE, along with the use of 3, 4, and 5 wide out sets/the spread offense have changed the game from a running/defensive league to an offense-centric league with prevalent shootouts. Example 1: last night's Giants-Bows game. Then there is the modern receiver, a Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson who are just freaks and would have many inches and pounds over players of the past, much less their present competition. The average corner is between 6' to 6'2 and between 200 to 215 pounds. Meanwhile, Megatron is listed as 6'5'' 230 pounds and Andre is 6'3.5'' and 225 pounds, all the while possessing sub 4.45 speed. How do you cover that now?

As far as Eli, his successes go beyond just stats. If you go by that, sure, he may be in the lower half of the top 10 or lower depending on the ranking. However, when it comes to leading that team, teaching the offense to a Victor Cruz or Jake Ballard (who have come out of no where this year), or making adjustments at the line where he is second to only Peyton or possibly Brady. Few quarterbacks have the latitude to control their offense like Eli does. Compare this to a guy like Schaub who has outstanding stats but has never gotten the Texans to the playoffs, including this year even, where he has gotten injured. Eli still has the great stats (on pace for a 5,000 yard season and another 30-touchdown season), along with the intangibles. I also think quarterback rating, while far from perfect, is a decent measure as the top QBs are usually near the top, while the new total QBR is a much better system, it as well is far from perfect. I do not put a ton of stock in either, still the current top 10 is very sound, though Hasselback at number 8 is a little high, while Romo at 4 is also high. While no where near as brutal as the Cowboys' fans, on general, make him sound I think he fits more into the 6-8 range, either even or one spot above or below Manning this year. Both players have comparable stats, while Romo has had fewer turnovers, while Eli has been more impressive in the 4th quarter and leading the Giants from behind, which I think leaves them basically even. Therefore, for me, the rankings for this year alone followed by the last three years, respectively, are as follows:
2011 (Note: my rankings take into account more than stats, hence why Tebow is so high, while stats do play a big role, hence Newton's rankings. Also, each tier isn't ranked in any order as I believe most are fairly even.)

MVP: Rodgers

BIG Gap (for this year at least)

Tier 1-"Elite":
Brady-Brees-Rothlisberger-Eli-Romo-Cutler (I couldn't figure out where to put him...he was GREAT behind a terrible OL and a below average receiving corps, so I put him in between)

Tier 2 "Very Good, potential to be elite":
Matt Ryan-Matthew Stafford-Matt Schaub (pre-injury)-Rivers (in a down year, normally tier 1)-Flacco

Tier 3 "Starters, can lead team to playoffs with help, veterans, and young players"
Josh Freeman (has regressed this year)-Hasselback-Cambell/Palmer-Vick (too injured this year, production down)-Newton-Tebow-Sanchez

Tier 4 "Game mangers, unlikely to make playoffs with them as QB, very raw players/rookies": Alex Smith-Colt McCoy (future could be very bright)-The Red Rifle (likely to be a game manager, Alex Smith-type for career)-Sam Bradford (has potential to be a tier 2 or better)

Tier 5 "Back ups, low production but possible potential down the line in some situations)
Grossman-Tavaris Jackson-Matt Moore-Christian Ponder (see potential max in tier 3)-Gabbard (likely game manager unless OL and WRs improve)-Curtis Painter-Kevin Kolb (big mistake by Cardinals to trade him, one things Eagles do great is evaluate personnel, QBs specifically, i.e. McNabb-potential likely a game manager, at best)-


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 12:08 am 
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Last 3 Years (In order this time, please note for someone like Vick or Freeman who have had only 2 good years in the last 3 and suffer as result, slightly):

Tier 1 (Hall of Famers/Best of Generation):
Peyton and Brady

Tier 2 (Great, Elite, Franchise Players, etc.):
Brees, Rothlisberger, Rivers, (Eli, Romo, Rodgers-3 way tie, Eli and Romo even for reasons stated above including Romo's team collapse last year, while Rodgers' year this year is an all-time best, while his last two prior were very good but not 2011 good)

Tier 3 (Good with potential to be great, younger players with good, emerging seasons): Cutler, Schaub, Matt Ryan, Vick Josh Freeman, Flacco, Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez

Tier 4 (Game mangers, can take a team to playoffs with help, rookies or first year starters who have good to elite potential but limited experience):
Cam Newton (rookie with untapped potential), The Red Rifle-Andy Dalton (could be best red-headed QB ever, seriously, he has the ability to be a very good tier 2 player/franchise player), Colt McCoy (same as Dalton, above), Tim Tebow (say what you want he is an unbelievable leader, winner, and has potential to be a franchise player), Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick

Tier 5 (Back ups, rookies with limited upside who may never be more than game managers):
Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Kevin Kolb (rookies go above the current "starters" who should be back ups i.e. Grossman, Kolb, etc.), Grossman, Tavaris Jackson, Curtis Painter, Matt Moore, Donovan McNabb


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:02 pm 
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Hilltop - Real nice job on your analysis. I would quibble with a few minor things, but I appreciate your fairness and your evaluations. I think the "4th Quarter" stuff can be a bit overrated. For example, this past week both Romo and Manning gave their teams 4th quarter leads - do both get credited for it, or only the winning QB?


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:08 pm 
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Genmet wrote:
Hilltop - Real nice job on your analysis. I would quibble with a few minor things, but I appreciate your fairness and your evaluations. I think the "4th Quarter" stuff can be a bit overrated. For example, this past week both Romo and Manning gave their teams 4th quarter leads - do both get credited for it, or only the winning QB?
They both deserve the credit. No Cowboy fan should be disappointed with Romo's performance. Romo had a really good game. He missed 1 throw in the 4th Qtr. Down the stretch Eli didn't miss any. That's the difference.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:38 pm 
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Again, just dealing with perception versus reality. Eli threw a huge interception down the stretch, it just didn't come back to haunt him. And the media bent over backwards to say it was a deflection, without mentioning that the deflection was off the first Cowboy who should have picked it. Please understand that I know Eli played great that night, but Romo outplayed him that night as he has all year. Actually heard Steven A. Smith say last night that "Romo didn't play a bad game". Really? 4 TD's, 0 picks, huge completion %, more yards per attempt than Eli, and that merits "didn't play a bad game". That's the kind of ridiculous nonsense that people say about Romo all the time. None of this is meant to bash Eli - both guys have played great all year. I'm just wondering why the media and many fans completely ignore the fact that Romo is a great QB and rarely (Francesa and Bayless excepted) give him credit.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:17 pm 
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I think the lack of positive Romo talk is because of his history of choking, so when he overthrows Austin in the 4th, people just let that become what he did that game.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:20 pm 
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And there actually is no history of choking, it's another media creation. Is there any QB who hasn't had some games where they made mistakes down the stretch? Sure, Romo has. But there is no data to suggest that he does this more than other top QB's. Fact is, he's been very clutch, one of the top rated 4th quarter QB's in history.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:40 pm 
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I don't count that tipped interception as 'down the stretch'

down by 12, 2 drives, no negative plays. that what i was referring to.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants IST
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:42 pm 
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Genmet wrote:
And there actually is no history of choking, it's another media creation. Is there any QB who hasn't had some games where they made mistakes down the stretch? Sure, Romo has. But there is no data to suggest that he does this more than other top QB's. Fact is, he's been very clutch, one of the top rated 4th quarter QB's in history.
It's all about the botched field goal ... he will never live that moment down unless he wins a Super Bowl.


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