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 Post subject: Re: Mets Extending Niese Long-Term!
PostPosted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:02 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
I'm sure locking up Pelfrey 2 years ago sounded like a good idea too....


8)


Gonna go with "no, not even close" here.

Pelfrey's NEVER had more then one sometimes reliable pitch.

Niese has THREE with a fourth that's decent. If you think you're being witty or clever comparing the two... not so much. I love ya, but you're RIDICULOUSLY off base here.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Extending Niese Long-Term!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:41 am 
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I'm down with this, and I'm not even a huge Niese fan. But I do at least admit that he's plus/plus w/ his curve and heater, and a good lock as #3 starter.

More important to me, and has been mentioned, it gets the specter of the Wilpon's finances off the team's back...and provides a shot in the arm entering the season.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Extending Niese Long-Term!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:12 pm 
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Quote:
Andy Martino ‏ @SurfingTheMets Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Another source said that Sandy Alderson and Niese's agent were in talks today, and deal likely to get done before Opening Day.

Quote:
Andy Martino ‏ @SurfingTheMets Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Niese negotiations progressing. "getting closer now," source says. Before opening day seems possible.


And then here's Jon Heyman parroting Martino:

Quote:
Jon Heyman ‏ @JonHeymanCBS Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
#mets, jon niese making progress. No agreement yet. Team offer a couple days ago was 5 yrs, 2 club options, below hollands $28.5M


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Extending Niese Long-Term!
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:50 pm 
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Done, per Rubin.

Quote:
Jon Niese, who is under the team’s control for another four seasons, has agreed to a five-year, $25 million deal with two team options that can raise the value to $52 million, two sources told ESPNNewYork.com.


The options appear to be pretty lucrative. For reference, Holland's deal was 5/28.5, with 2 $11m options on the end.


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 Post subject: Re: UPDATE: Mets, Niese Agree on 5yr/$25M Deal (pg. 3)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:51 pm 
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Quote:
Jon Niese, who is under the team’s control for another four seasons, has agreed to a five-year, $25 million deal with two team options that can raise the value to $52 million, two sources told ESPNNewYork.com.

The completion of the contract is pending a physical.

The deal was patterned off of left-hander Derek Holland’s new deal with the Texas Rangers.

Holland has a five-year, $28.5 million deal that included two team options -- for $11 million and $11.5 million.


Rubin

So he gets a little less than Holland, but his options are worth more. Seems like a fair deal.


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 Post subject: Re: UPDATE: Mets, Niese Agree on 5yr/$25M Deal (pg. 3)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:56 pm 
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This looks good.

At worst, if Niese hangs around league average or slightly better, this probably saves the team something around $10M-15M (not including the options).

I'm a little surprised Niese was able to get that much, but hey, locking him up through arbitration and a free agent year or two (plus club options) was exactly one of the moves I was hoping Sandy would craft.


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 Post subject: Re: UPDATE: Mets, Niese Agree on 5yr/$25M Deal (pg. 3)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:01 pm 
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Note that they are "TEAM" options, not player options, nor mutual options. That means Mets have the flexibility there in deciding whether or not to pick them up.

Either way I am okay with this deal. It allows the Mets to build around Niese and have a cost controlled pitcher for several years through this rebuild. However, it also leaves the option of Niese being a tradeable commodity for many of the same reasons above, if such a situation warranted itself to going in that direction and loading up talent in other areas in a couple years from now.


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 Post subject: Re: UPDATE: Mets, Niese Agree on 5yr/$25M Deal (pg. 3)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:01 pm 
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Mike Puma ‏ @NYPost_Mets Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Niese deal done. Contract is $25.5 million over five years with options of $10 million and $10.5 million, would bring value to $46 million.

This is very different, and I like it lot more.

It comes with the usual caveat that it is sourced from Mike Puma, though.


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 Post subject: Re: UPDATE: Mets, Niese Agree on 5yr/$25M Deal (pg. 3)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:06 pm 
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Heyman actually CONFIRMS Puma's report!?


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 Post subject: Re: UPDATE: Mets, Niese Agree on 5yr/$25M Deal (pg. 3)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:07 pm 
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Hmm, Rubin has it from TWO sources that the max value of the contract is $52M, not $46M. If Puma has the correct numbers on this, it's going to be quite an upset.


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 Post subject: Re: UPDATE: Mets, Niese Agree on 5yr/$25M Deal (pg. 3)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:07 pm 
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Including the options, Niese basically has to be a slightly worse than league average pitcher to be worth $52M (and yes, I adjusted for arbitration and salary inflation). That bar is incredibly low.

And now Heyman says $46M max, which would be even better. That basically sets the bar for him to be a 1.5 WAR pitcher throughout the entire deal (including the options) for the Mets to (roughly) get their money's worth. Niese has averaged about a 2.5 WAR per 180 IP so far in his career and he certainly has the upside to be even better than that.


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 Post subject: Re: UPDATE: Mets, Niese Agree on 5yr/$25M Deal (pg. 3)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:23 pm 
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All in all it's a good deal. Are alll the Sandy bashers happy?

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