Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:57 pm Posts: 57711 Location: New York, NY
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The Mets finished April with a 13-10 record despite being outscored by 20 runs for the month (111-91).
This one is sort of scary and suggests are record could be "lucky"
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Dillon’s Birthday earns a Gee Whiz Dillon Gee beat the Rockies last Saturday night to earn the win on his 26th birthday. Gee became the first Mets starter to pitch on his birthday since Mark Clark in 1996, and the first to win on his birthday since Dave Mlicki in 1995.
The youngest Mets starter to earn a win on his birthday was SNY’s Ron Darling, who won on his 25th birthday in 1985. He’d win again on his 26th birthday the next year. The other two Mets starters to win on their birthday are Ray Burris (1980, 30th) and Wally Whitehurst (1991, 27th)
Mets starters are now 6-1 with two no-decisions in nine career starts on their birthday. Mets relievers are 4-2, with the most recent win coming from John Franco in 2001.
The Mets finished April with a 13-10 record despite being outscored by 20 runs for the month (111-91).
This one is sort of scary and suggests are record could be "lucky"
Likely owed to the 9-1 record in 1 or 2 run games, right?
Since the bullpen has been terrible; yeah, I'd suggest that likely a point of concern/where you'd expect regression rather than chalking it up to "thriving on pressure" or something.
I'm guessing at the end of the year MOST of the best teams in 1 run games are low scoring teams with great pens. That's just a guess though.
Yeah, thats what I mean.
I think having your pen turn 3 run wins into 1, or 1 run wins into ties then into a 1 run win after, etc, is not the most sustainable way to maintain that record.
A team that struggles with pitching and defense doesn't strike me as the type thats going to outperform its Pythag Record all year (which is 9-16, by the by).
I've been pointing out elsewhere for awhile that the Mets were winning more often than they should because of their "runs scored" vs "runs allowed" differential...we simply don't have the pitching staff to survive the RS vs RA differential for very long...
Has their ever been a study done to figure out what characteristics a team typically requires to out or under-perform its Pythag record?
Quickly looking up last year's standings, no team 28 of 30 teams were within 6 games either way of their pythag. The Padres (-8) and Royals (-7) were the outliers.
In 2010, 28 were within +/- 4. Seems like its consistently fairly accurate.
Has their ever been a study done to figure out what characteristics a team typically requires to out or under-perform its Pythag record?
Quickly looking up last year's standings, no team 28 of 30 teams were within 6 games either way of their pythag. The Padres (-8) and Royals (-7) were the outliers.
In 2010, 28 were within +/- 4. Seems like its consistently fairly accurate.
They have to be the Royals and re-sign Bruce Chen and Jeff Francouer as their marquee players...
_________________ "The most potent weapon of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed." Steven Biko
Has their ever been a study done to figure out what characteristics a team typically requires to out or under-perform its Pythag record?
I don't recall if there was a study, but I seem to remember something about a good bullpen being a factor there.
It certainly makes sense, and obviously puts into question how sustainable us outpacing our Pythag by such a wide margin (+4 already thru 25 games) is (hint: my guess is its not).
In other words, if you're going to keep getting blown out, dont expect to keep winning all the close ones.
Thole is credited for -1.5 runs, which ranks 57th out of 62 catchers. Nickeas is -0.8 (46th) despite being behind the plate for 535 less batters than Thole.
how many of Thole's errors and passed balls were when Dickey is pitching? It's kind of hard to judge a guy that catches a knuckleballer vs guys that don't...unfortunately a player's game logs don't show their defensive stats so it's hard to figure out whether most of Thole's mistakes were Dickey induced or not...
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