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 Post subject: Tank Watch - one game left (page 7). Down to the wire.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:56 am 
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Comfortably out of reach:

SF - 40 - 67
Philly - 39 - 64
Chi-sox 41-62
Cinci - 42-63

In the hunt:

#5 - Oakland, 47-59 - 0 -
#6 - San Diego 47-58 - .5 gb (or ga)
#7 - Detroit 47-57 - 1 ga
#8 - Atlanta 48-56 - 2 ga
#9 - Toronto 49-57 - 2 ga
#10 Mets 48-55 - 2.5 ga
#11 Miami 49-55 - 3 ga
#12 Texas 50-55 - 3.5 ga
#13 Angels 51-55 - 4 ga
#14 Twins 50-53 - 4.5 ga
#15 Baltimore 51-54 4.5 ga
#16 Pittsburgh 51-54 - 4.5 ga

That's a pretty wide range of outcomes the mets are just 2 games within. 2017 values, the #5 pick had a slot value of 5.7 million, the #16, 3.45 (not a huge difference, but pretty significant).


Thoughts:

I think Oakland has set their sights on Tank with the trade of Sonny Grey. They might even break the top 4.

Sandiego - who I predicted to be epically awful this year, has been solid. Since opening the year 18-33, they've win 29 of their last 54. I didn't expect that. Fluke or will they keep wining?

Detroit - sold this deadline. After a 29-29 start they've gone 18-28. The tank could be strong with them.

Mets have won 17 of their last 31 but the starting pitching is still very questionable.

Marlins have won 28 of their last 52, good enough to climb into 2nd place.

Twins have struggled a bit, wining 18 of their last 44. Sold at the deadline.

The O's started out this year an impressive 22-10. 29-44 since then.

Pirates have put together a small wining stretch too, winning 14 of their last 22.

So many ways this can go, I don't even want to predict, but I'm going to root for a number of entertaining losses.

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and, I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018).


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:26 am 
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I predict another textbook Mets 11-13 pick.


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:39 am 
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nocedog wrote:
I predict another textbook Mets 11-13 pick.


I was leaning in that direction, but the starting pitching has been so bad lately.

Wheeler & Gsellman are on the DL.
Matz has been terrible his last 4 stars - to the point of me wondering if something's wrong.
Lugo's been OK.
Montero had 2 OK starts against St. Louis & Oakland before losing to Seattle.
and I think they're calling up Milone to be #5.

How many games can a team with with

deGrom
Matz
Lugo
Montero
Milone

when Lugo is hit or miss and Matz has been awful?

I think the starting pitching will push them in the 7-10 range. I like the lineup but not the pitching. They probably get Thor back at some point, but I just don't see much to like in that rotation.

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and, I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018).


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:33 am 
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Tank Watch is on if we play the veterans.

A Bright New Era is on if we play the kids.


8)

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Whatever.

8)


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:40 am 
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R Nitelight wrote:
Tank Watch is on if we play the veterans.

A Bright New Era is on if we play the kids.


8)


Exactamundo!

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:42 am 
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I saw that Tigers team last night....oh boy their offense is turrible. Miggy's bat has slowed down a bit, JUP never struck me as a middle of the order type bat (batting 3rd). No one of note scares you in that lineup....so the tank is strong with them.

The Mets at least will be competitive since most the offense is still with the team. The pitching will be it's downfall for a few weeks here but guys are coming back...so I'd expect it won't be bad by say...September.

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:57 am 
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I don't mind trying to win. Not with the guys who shouldn't be part of the retool.

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:55 am 
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So let's see, if they get the #3 pick they can end up with Phil Humber and if they get the #10 they can possibly get the next Michael Conforto?

MLB draft crapshoot is enough for me to not care whether they pick 5th or 15th.


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 11:04 am 
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I wouldn't bring Thor back at all. And I would seriously limit deGrom's innings this last 2 months.


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 1:47 am 
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R Nitelight wrote:
Tank Watch is on if we play the veterans.

A Bright New Era is on if we play the kids.


8)


With respect to the bright new era - and, I'm a fan of the bright new era.

I'm still going to watch the bottom of the standings and see how things play out.

Code:
Pick
#5 - Oakland    47-60 - 0 -
#6 - San Diego 48-58 - 1.5 ga
#7 - Detroit     48-57 - 2 ga
#8 - Atlanta     48-57 - 2 ga
#9 - Mets        48-56 - 2.5 ga
#10 Toronto     50-57 - 3 ga
#11 Texas        50-56 - 3.5 ga
#12 Miami        50-55 - 4 ga
#13 Twins        50-54 - 4.5 ga
#14 Pittsburgh  51-55 - 4.5 ga
#15 Angels       52-55 - 5 ga
#16 Baltimore    52-54 5.5 ga


Just 1 game out of the #6 pick.

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and, I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018).


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:20 pm 
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If we lose 2 out of every 3 games the rest of the way we should be around 70-92. Thats got to be good for a 7-9 pick.

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:21 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
If we lose 2 out of every 3 games the rest of the way we should be around 70-92. Thats got to be good for a 7-9 pick.


That would be okay if we were playing for the future...

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