Starters

1) deGrom
2) Flexen *
3) Gsellman *
4) Harvey
5) Lugo *
6) Matz *
7) Montero
8 Thor *
9) Wheeler *

Pen & Minors

10) Blevins
11) Bradford *
12) Callahan *
13) Familia
14) Goedell
15) McGowan *
16) Molina *
17) Pill *
18) Ramos
19) Rhame *
20) Robles *
21) Sewald *
22) Smoker *

(and fine, Pill should maybe be in the starters)

Catchers

23) d'Arnaud *
24) Plaw
25) Nido *

Infield

26) Cabrera
27) Cecchini *
28) Evans *
29) Flores
30) Reynolds *
31) TJ Rivera *
32) Rosario *
33) Dom Smith (added - oops)
34) Wright

Outfield

35) Aoki
36) Becerra *
37) Cespedes
38) Conforto *
39) Lagares *
40) Nimmo *
41) Taijeron *

Free agents

Milone
Reyes

So today, the roster stands at 41, counting all team options and arbs. (did I miss anyone?)

Players with * have minor league options that they can't refuse in 2018.

Possible adds: http://tpgmets.blogspot.com/p/rule-5.html

Final cuts, if I remember right are late November and Rule 5 is on the last day of the winter meetings, early December.

Predict your cuts and adds. I figure they're going to sign absolute minimum 1 probably 2 or 3 guaranteed deals so the final number should lean towards 37-39.

Cuts

Goeddel, McGowan, Pill, Evans, Aoki, Taijeron, Becerra

Adds:

Bashlor, Uceta, Guillorme, (and I hope they add Bautista . . . being the mets, I don't know if they do).

7 cuts, 4 adds. Roster at 38. I probably should make another cut. 37 seems more likely with 3 free agents.

They try to keep Aoki with a sweet minor league deal and promise of a call up.

Missing D Smith so after FA and 60 day DL adds they will be at 41 not 40.

You must be related to Matt Reynolds. Only explanation I have to refusing to give up the ghost on a NEGATIVE -0.2 fWAR 27 year old player

cuts: McGowan, Milone, Pill, Reynolds, Aoki, Becerra, Taijeron.

add: Guillorme, Bashlor, Oswalt, Bautista

Not really sure on Oswalt, who from reports may be just another Tyler Pill. But some of those guys have been useful in the past (Matt Bowman, for example, who the Mets actually lost in rule 5).

I predict there will be less cuts than expected.

Guys who are owed money like Milone or Aoki (given Nimmo's strong September) will be let go. Guys who are free won't. And then we'll sell someone OK (early bet: Gsellman) to the O's in February when we need a spot.

And Erik Goeddel stays, because he'll always stay.

This is unrealistic, yet keeps getting thrown out.

Aoki basically plays under the same contract every year. There is clearly a market set for him. And he's basically the same guy every year. He was having a down year in Houston but then came here and was, essentially, completely Aoki-esque again.

I don't see why the perpetual $6m AAV in a semi-full time role suddenly shifts to a "guy who'll take a spot in Vegas but with a 6/1 opt-out" just because Mets fans actually kinda like him but don't want to admit it because he's 36 and therefore doesn't have upside or whatever.

He'd be a perfectly fine guy to keep around, especially in an uncertain OF situation while waiting for Conforto to come back, wanting to see what Nimmo has but aware of his/Lagares (who'll be here b/c of $$$$) injury history and knowing we don't have a lot of $ to spend...but he'll cost money, because guys who are pretty much surefire bets to be remotely productive major leaguers cost money. So if you don't want to pay for him, fine, but somebody will.

I'm not sure. He was effectively cut by two different teams this year. His skillset is less valued than it may have been only a few years ago. I think he's looking at a $3M payday. And that may not here. I'm sure that Travis Snider could do what Aoki does if he stays in the org, for example. But yeah, when resources are limited, Aoki types at $5M+ are luxuries.

Sure, maybe its a $3m payday. I think its a little bit misleading to say he was cut twice. He was included to match salaries in a trade between 2 smaller market teams where thats a big deal, and then was let go to open September at bats for a non-contender (and obviously we immediately scooped him up). But anyway, point is, the guys who have to settle for the AAA depth contracts are the guys who have years like AdA in 2015. Guys who have major league track records in the Aoki mold who are as consistent year to year find work.

Well, I'd be the first to say the Mets have too often been happy-go-lucky inefficient spenders in this low-mid range, so long as they avoid the big FA potholes, so to speak. They've pissed millions away on the $3M - $7M per year players normally trying to "find value" in a post-prime player, reclamation project, or simply name-chasing.

I mean, look at them apparently ready to throw away $5M on Matt Harvey...

Main thing is, I think they probably do decline his option, even if they would like to bring him back. That may free a spot temporarily before the rule 5 draft, but eventually you are going to need that spot either for Aoki, or another outfielder.

Milone has one more arb year so you're right on him being a cut (I had him as a free agent). But I think him being gone is pretty much a given. If we count him, the roster starts at 42. You have 7 cuts, 4 adds, which puts your final number at 39 - only room for 1 free agent signing.

and you don't like Uceta? Some people are saying he's a lock to be added for the pen.