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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:26 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Not sure why people are rushing to cut McGowan. Even if he didn't look particularly great and the control is a problem,


Because his stuff is completely "generic relief pitcher in minors" and other than his 2016, he's never been a particularly effective pitcher at any level.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:09 pm 
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They cut McGowan, they are likely to get him back.

No one is adding him to their 40 right before the rule V.

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:22 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Sure sometimes the bizarre is just par for the course in Metsworld so let's be clear it is certainly possible they do punt the season. But given the core they'll return- especially two ace starters - they'd be doing everyone a big disservice by not making an effort to supplement this core with a good supporting cast. And we've just seen two teams make tremendous leaps in the standings in one year. Having two young cheap aces is still the envy of every team and provides for great variance in their results. It justifies the optimism that many still have for next year.


Well, I don't really expect an outright punt. I expect to see the usual Mets thing of doing just enough to raise some hopes and sell some tickets, without actually going all in. I'd rather see one or the other. I'd be fine with punt this year and all in next year, for example, if they really think that's going to be what's best in the long run.

I also think this might not be the year you are going to see the blockbuster Mike Piazza or Hernandez + Carter type of moves. I think this time they might give us the new manager, new coaching staff, etc., and save the big money moves for another season. I think this might be the year they settle for 85 wins being a big improvement over 70.

But you do make some good arguments that they really should do more now. I especially hadn't considered that Familia is only under control one more year. He was a huge part of the 2016 run, and they will need to retain or replace him in 2019. And with Familia back, they really only need to address the rotation and the infield to at least have some chance.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:35 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
I think this might be the year they settle for 85 wins


In addition to 85 wins generally being right around the WC spots these days (so hard pressed to call that "settle", and hard-pressed to see why if thats where they were, why they wouldn't try to make a move or 2), that'd be just the 18th time in franchise history they'd reach that plateau, so, again, hard for me to think of an 85 win goal as "settling" for the Mets. This isn't the Yankees.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:37 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
I think this might be the year they settle for 85 wins


In addition to 85 wins generally being right around the WC spots these days (so hard pressed to call that "settle", and hard-pressed to see why if thats where they were, why they wouldn't try to make a move or 2), that'd be just the 18th time in franchise history they'd reach that plateau, so, again, hard for me to think of an 85 win goal as "settling" for the Mets. This isn't the Yankees.

Speaking of which, the last time the Yankees finished under .500 was 1992. :shock:


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:57 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Not sure why people are rushing to cut McGowan. Even if he didn't look particularly great and the control is a problem,


Because his stuff is completely "generic relief pitcher in minors" and other than his 2016, he's never been a particularly effective pitcher at any level.


He reaches 94/95 with a pretty solid slider and change.

His stuff isn't otherwordly obviously but I don't think he's too far behind the other young relievers in that area. And he's only been a reliever since 2016 so that point is nonsensical.

He's more likely to be claimed than Uceta is to be taken in the Rule V.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:13 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:

He reaches 94/95 with a pretty solid slider and change.


He's about 2 mph less than the average reliever FB velocity. 92.6 vs. 94.4. And that would include specialists, funky arm angle guys, etc - so as far as general RHRP from a traditional sense, its even more below average.

He's just not very good. Your point about a solid slider and change is the epitome of a generic, subjective statement so not sure how to refute that other than "sure", though neither is memorable in the least.

Again, as a 24/25 year old, he had a nice 2016 in A+ ball and was OK in AA. Nowhere else at any other time has he been any good. Starter or not, he was a college guy who at 23 was bad in the FSL. Mediocre stuff + mediocre peformance does not a 40 man spot make.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:26 pm 
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That velo sample is also over 9 innings total.

I don't know; I like McGowan's stuff. He's generated swings and misses as a reliever. His performance in AAA wasn't bad considering the level. Talking about his performance as a starter is pretty silly. Uceta is a failed starter too, you know.

To me it comes down to who I'd prefer on the 40 right now: Uceta or McGowan. I'd take McGowan. He may be able to help our pen next year and Uceta is still a ways away. That elite velo that people talk about with Uceta isn't consistent at all, either. He was sitting 90 in the EL playoffs.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:33 pm 
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I'm not sure what the amount of games in a "velo sample" means; are you suggesting over a larger sample his velocity would be higher? Why would that be?


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:55 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
I'm not sure what the amount of games in a "velo sample" means; are you suggesting over a larger sample his velocity would be higher? Why would that be?


It's a long season. Like I said earlier, Uceta was way down in the EL playoffs. By the end some of the more inexperienced guys are running on fumes. I've seen McGowan throw enough to think that the velo is a bit better than 92.6.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:21 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Not sure why people are rushing to cut McGowan. Even if he didn't look particularly great and the control is a problem, he was missing bats and didn't look worse than, say, Rhame. If it comes down to having him or Uceta on the 40 I think McGowan stays as I don't think Uceta would get snatched.

For me the cuts are Milone, Pill, Goeddel, Taijeron, Aoki, Beccera, Cecchini, Reynolds, and (essentially) Reyes. I'm still not an Evans fan but he's earned a spot over Reynolds.

Then add Guillorme, Bashlor, Oswalt, and Bautista. That brings us up to 37 including Wheeler and Wright.

It wouldn't shock me if we added someone like Boyd if we're not bringing back Aoki. I have a hard time seeing us going into the season with four non-Beccera OF on the 40 with Conforto being a question mark.


Evans over Reynolds is an interesting argument. I think the mets have to cut one of those two cause it's too crowded for both. I wonder how Evans looks at SS cause that's probably Matt Reynold's advantage. He's seen as a passable SS.

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:43 am 
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As of now, my guess is Oswalt, Uceta and Bautista are the only three adds.

I can't see a team carrying Guillorme's bat for an entire year so even if he gets picked, he'll be returned. I also don't see Bashlor or Crismatt getting plucked.

If they got rid of Cheech and Reynolds before the Rule 5 draft, then I think Guillorme has a chance of being added.

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