MLBTR (via MMO):

Norichika Aoki (5.148) – $6.3MM
Tommy Milone (5.113) – $2.2MM
Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
Jeurys Familia (5.024) – $7.4MM
Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
Hansel Robles (2.127) – $1.0MM

Don't know how Harvey possibly gets a raise. He could actually get less than his '17 number by 20%.

And that AJR number is also ridiculous. He's nowhere near worth that. I expect him to get moved.

getting less in arb is so rare, I think it's pretty unlikely. The mets could offer less. They have the right to offer 80% of his salary last year and Harvey can ask for a pay bump and the arbiter will decide, but I don't think the mets will do that. Mostly deals are reached. Less than half the time it goes to arbitration.

Juan Guzeman (1995) is the only case I know of a guy accepting 80% of his previous year in arb salary.

My guesses

Norichika Aoki (5.148) – $6.3MM -- No
Tommy Milone (5.113) – $2.2MM -- No
Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM -- Yes, but I wouldn't
A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM -- Yeesh. Yes, but I wouldn't probably
Jeurys Familia (5.024) – $7.4MM -- Yes
Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM -- Yes
Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM -- Yes
Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM -- Yes
Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM -- Yes
Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM -- Yes
Hansel Robles (2.127) – $1.0MM -- No

I'm far from a Robles fan, and Lord knows I might just lose my mind if I watch him continue to groove fastballs right down the middle of the plate and then point to the sky when they are blasted into orbit. That said, I think the Mets have to bring him back if the cost is only $1M.

Seems to me that Robles is the exact type of "buy low" candidate we pine for the FO to bring in every year, just in this case we've all probably seen him too much to think there's anything there. But if he were in another organization and we knew he had a 95+ fastball and could take a flyer on him for a $1M I think a lot of us would say "sure, why not?"

I suppose the difference is that being in arbitration there isn't room to negotiate a minor league deal with him, is there?

if TPG is right (and they mostly are), Robles has 1 option left. The mets can pay him his million and send him to Vegas if they have better options. His money is guaranteed, but his spot on the 25 is not.

Why would Wilmer get less?

That's a raise of 1.5 million. He made 2.2 in 2017.

MLB is the only place you could be the worst in your profession and be in line to get a 15% increase in pay. The Mets would be well within their bounds to go to arbitration with Harvey and almost certainly prevail there if they held the line on him or made an offer of say $5.2M.

Ok, thanks. I misunderstood what those two numbers are

Yeah, probably worth $1M to stash him in AAA. The last 7 names on that list are worth it, the first 4 maybe aren't.

I was already thinking they should plan on cutting Harvey in ST unless something changes there, but Ramos at that price is in the same boat. In fact he'd make near to $2M even if you cut him. That's expensive for a lottery ticket. And I don't mind Aoki for one year as the 5th OF, but for $6.3M, you can take him or leave him.

Fifth outfielders, erratic pen arms, and fringe SP shouldn't be that hard to find. Maybe take that $21M+, spend it on someone actually good to fill one of those spots, and then find unproven young guys at MLB minimum to gamble on in whatever holes are left.

From your lips... I'm actually crossing fingers that AJR's counting stats impress someone enough to net something for him. I have him going in a Gyorko deal.

But I must ask, what happened to the uber-ninja scouting on Matt Harvey that some were missing?

[I responded to these out of order...]