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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:16 am 
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Well, one thing I'm pretty confident in is that the Mets aren't going to win any bidding war for one of the top FA starting pitchers. That's a place this FO is never comfortable going. Unless for some odd reason, the market fails to materialize for Arrieta as in the Cespedes case, I don't see this FO going anywhere near the market rate for a top FA SPer... and that is especially after prob feeling a little burned by Cespedes's inability to stay on the field and perform to the level he is being paid.

So yeah, that doesn't seem realistic to me.

I also don't see them spending $45M+ on aggregate free agents even if they let Harvey go, without also moving another salary like Ramos.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:06 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
- They will not "give up" on the uber prospects (Rosario, Smith) despite poor showings. They hate forever decisions, they hate seeming rash, and so the plan is for those guys to be cornerstones, and they will be given that chance until they either become that, or its become too obvious (and too expensive) to continue that charade. So I expect exactly 0 $$ or trade effort on 1B this offseason, despite what some may project.

I haven't heard anyone take up the idea that they will bail on either Rosario or Smith. Well, Smith needing more seasoning seems like a legit concern/path to take. Whether they take that path or not remains to be seen, but it seems like it's certainly Smith in the long term plans.


MarkJohnson>You wrote:
- There will be no trades of note. Again, they just never trade in the offseason - things move quick, there are lots of bidders, etc. and that doesn't mesh well with our deliberate approach, which is why the biggest offseason trade since 2012 is...[?]. It is what it is. Also, we have nothing to deal (interesting minor league relievers notwithstanding).

I don't know. When they got rebuffed on Zobrist, they pivoted quickly into a Walker deal. Was that because Sandy was temporarily on the shelf at that moment and Ricco was calling the shots? I suppose that argument can be made. I think they will be more open to dealing with other teams this winter. Time is running out on the SA-Mets legacy.


MarkJohnson>You wrote:
- The manager search will drag on longer than it should, which leads to a late start to actual player movement.

I'm not sure what the evidence for this would be. I think the candidates are more or less already lined up. Does anyone know if any interviews have taken place? Wouldn't surprise me if they are doing this quietly right now. The Tigers have reportedly started their process.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:36 pm 
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AJ Ramos and Juan Lagares for AJ Pollock!

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:35 pm 
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I've been swayed by MJ's suggestion of signing Arrieta. I like it. I'm gonna go with something like that, now...

- Sign Jake Arrieta: 4 years, $85M with a 5th year option if he's healthy for half the contract or something
- Sign Steve Cishek: 2 years, $12M
- Sign Jay Bruce: 3 years, $36M (if market for sluggers holds)
- Sign Jose Reyes: 1 year, $6M with an option that vests at 130 starts
- Pick up Cabrera's option

Lineup
1. Reyes 2B
2. Conforto CF (Nimmo/Lagares if he's not ready)
3. Cespedes LF
4. Bruce RF
5. Cabrera 3B
6. Smith/Flores 1B
7. Rosario SS
8. d'Arnaud C

Bench
Flores/Smith IF
TJ Rivera IF/OF
Nimmo OF
Lagares OF
Plawecki C

Rotation
deGrom
Syndergaard
Arrieta
Matz
Harvey/Wheeler/Lugo

Bullpen
Familia
Ramos
Cishek
Blevins
2 of: Callahan/Smoker/Sewald/Rhame/Smith/Robles, etc.
Wheeler/Harvey/Lugo


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:29 pm 
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yalikeMetroplitans wrote:

Bullpen
Familia
Ramos
Cishek
Blevins
2 of: Callahan/Smoker/Sewald/Rhame/Smith/Robles, etc.
Wheeler/Harvey/Lugo


Yeah i'm thinking that pen would be just as bad as last years


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:41 pm 
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Smoker and Robles should not be on the 40 man roster, let alone the 25 man roster next season. Smoker is one of the worst pitchers to pitch for the Mets in the last 20 years and that's really saying something.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:16 pm 
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Arrieta would be bold (and would be a impactful signing), but for the life of me, I can't see investing in a pitcher for Sandy.

Perhaps they'd be swayed by the Cubs, Diamondbacks models, but I see them being conservative in adding pitching...one or two year deal to Lackey or something.

I definitely could see a Walker reunion.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:00 am 
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Steve The Original wrote:
yalikeMetroplitans wrote:

Bullpen
Familia
Ramos
Cishek
Blevins
2 of: Callahan/Smoker/Sewald/Rhame/Smith/Robles, etc.
Wheeler/Harvey/Lugo


Yeah i'm thinking that pen would be just as bad as last years


I don't know. I think adding Cishek, a full year of Familia, and a (hopefully) settled in Ramos would be enough to make it an upgrade. Add in all those new RP prospects with Bashlor, and I think you've got some upside there.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:01 am 
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dragonfly wrote:
Smoker and Robles should not be on the 40 man roster, let alone the 25 man roster next season. Smoker is one of the worst pitchers to pitch for the Mets in the last 20 years and that's really saying something.


I put him in that group because LEFTY. Not sure he makes the 25, but I know managers like two lefties in the pen. Who else is there? Not sure they sign one. He was also better down the stretch, so hopefully that holds.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:09 am 
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I'm jumping on the Shaw bandwagon. He's taken the cutter to a new level this season. He looked really good in the series. A lot of GBs and weak contact. Maybe a slightly below the radar guy, tho there are few if any elite RP arms that will be on the FA market this winter... Wade Davis and ? So, Shaw will prob stand to make out pretty well... 3/18M? He's just 29.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:23 pm 
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Wilmer, Wheeler and Uceta to ATL for Julio Teheran. Mets take all of the salary.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:59 am 
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Whoever gives Arrieta the next contract will regret it. He is regressing.


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