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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:49 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
But I must ask, what happened to the uber-ninja scouting on Matt Harvey that some were missing?

The scouting comment was in response to the hyperbolic (I think) comment that "The upper bound for Harvey is like 5th SPer or pen arm". That could be his median projection, and still not be worth $5.9M.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:42 pm 
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So we could (theoretically) save around 14 million by non-tendering Aoki, Harvey, and Milone.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:43 pm 
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thebull wrote:
So we could (theoretically) save around 14 million by non-tendering Aoki, Harvey, and Milone.


Makes too much sense, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:23 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
But I must ask, what happened to the uber-ninja scouting on Matt Harvey that some were missing?

The scouting comment was in response to the hyperbolic (I think) comment that "The upper bound for Harvey is like 5th SPer or pen arm". That could be his median projection, and still not be worth $5.9M.

Was not at all hyperbolic.

Not easy to square these comments. Wasn't I criticized for failing to see that Harvey is back and only needs minor tweaks? Now you're forecasting a ST release? There is a disconnect in here somewhere.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:08 pm 
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thebull wrote:
So we could (theoretically) save around 14 million by non-tendering Aoki, Harvey, and Milone.


The non-tendering of Milone I assumed was a given, so we're down to 12.

Aoki's a tough one cause they need an OF. I think a release and work out a new contract is still possible but how much would they save if they do that? 2 million? I think he's 50/50.

and if Harvey looks like he's done in the spring he could be released then and just cost 15% of his salary.

Maybe 6 million for Aoki is throwing money away, but what OF are we likely to get for 1 year 6?

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:37 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
thebull wrote:
So we could (theoretically) save around 14 million by non-tendering Aoki, Harvey, and Milone.


The non-tendering of Milone I assumed was a given, so we're down to 12.

Aoki's a tough one cause they need an OF. I think a release and work out a new contract is still possible but how much would they save if they do that? 2 million? I think he's 50/50.

and if Harvey looks like he's done in the spring he could be released then and just cost 15% of his salary.

Maybe 6 million for Aoki is throwing money away, but what OF are we likely to get for 1 year 6?


Put the 6 million towards a better player, even if it costs more than 6. We should be adding starting quality offensive pieces, not expensive bench pieces.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:20 pm 
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thebull wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
thebull wrote:
So we could (theoretically) save around 14 million by non-tendering Aoki, Harvey, and Milone.


The non-tendering of Milone I assumed was a given, so we're down to 12.

Aoki's a tough one cause they need an OF. I think a release and work out a new contract is still possible but how much would they save if they do that? 2 million? I think he's 50/50.

and if Harvey looks like he's done in the spring he could be released then and just cost 15% of his salary.

Maybe 6 million for Aoki is throwing money away, but what OF are we likely to get for 1 year 6?


Put the 6 million towards a better player, even if it costs more than 6. We should be adding starting quality offensive pieces, not expensive bench pieces.


Bruce for 12 makes more sense than Aoki for 6. I don't know if Bruce will be available for 12, but the market wasn't kind to COFs last year.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:46 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Was not at all hyperbolic.

Not easy to square these comments. Wasn't I criticized for failing to see that Harvey is back and only needs minor tweaks? Now you're forecasting a ST release? There is a disconnect in here somewhere.


Well his ceiling is easily better than a #5 SP. That's where the disconnect is. I'd say #3 at worst.

But you don't go into a season planning on having a guy in your opening day rotation if you even think his median projection is only a #5SP.

Right now, I think there's enough upside there that giving him a chance to fight for that spot for an upfront $1M is almost a no brainer. That's a small price to have another above average arm competing for that spot. If he manages to keep his fastball ball down and off the middle of the plate, maybe he'll even win it.

Do you really think there is no possibility at all that Harvey will improve over his 2017 performance? He has a career 3.34 FIP and 3.54 xFIP. Even in 2016, his FIP was 3.47 and xFIP 4.11.

A good GM has that guy in camp at that price. A good GM also makes sure that there's enough other talent there that he's unlikely to win the spot.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:25 am 
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acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Was not at all hyperbolic.

Not easy to square these comments. Wasn't I criticized for failing to see that Harvey is back and only needs minor tweaks? Now you're forecasting a ST release? There is a disconnect in here somewhere.


Well his ceiling is easily better than a #5 SP. That's where the disconnect is. I'd say #3 at worst.

But you don't go into a season planning on having a guy in your opening day rotation if you even think his median projection is only a #5SP.

Right now, I think there's enough upside there that giving him a chance to fight for that spot for an upfront $1M is almost a no brainer. That's a small price to have another above average arm competing for that spot. If he manages to keep his fastball ball down and off the middle of the plate, maybe he'll even win it.

Do you really think there is no possibility at all that Harvey will improve over his 2017 performance? He has a career 3.34 FIP and 3.54 xFIP. Even in 2016, his FIP was 3.47 and xFIP 4.11.

A good GM has that guy in camp at that price. A good GM also makes sure that there's enough other talent there that he's unlikely to win the spot.

Well I won't touch the part about a good GM...

But yes there is a disconnect if one is talking about career numbers for Harvey. Harvey is far from the pitcher who accrued those impressive numbers. In fact he was arguably the worst SPer in baseball this season. At this point he would be making a leap to get to competent #5 starter. That's evidently hard for some to wrap their heads around.

In the realm of anything is possible, Harvey can be a mid rotation caliber starter next season. But I'd rather the team not invest time and money chasing that kind of fantasy.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:58 am 
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Out of curiosity, why can't a player like WRIGHT'S contract be reworked or voided given the fact that he has played in only 75 games in 3 years? I find it ridiculous that the Mets are going to be stuck paying him $20 million to play next year after all of these surgeries and the fact that he has played in 15% of the games in 3 whole seasons. How can that not be a topic that is looked at?

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:08 am 
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Spacetraveler wrote:
Out of curiosity, why can't a player like WRIGHT'S contract be reworked or voided given the fact that he has played in only 75 games in 3 years? I find it ridiculous that the Mets are going to be stuck paying him $20 million to play next year after all of these surgeries and the fact that he has played in 15% of the games in 3 whole seasons. How can that not be a topic that is looked at?


The players union would fuss if he just returns the money because it's guaranteed under contract. Wright also might not want to retire. Those are the two primary reasons. If Wright wanted to retire, something could probably be worked out between the two sides. There's also a sneeky Wilponish problem. Wright's contract is insured. If he tries to play but can't play, insurance covers 80% of his contract. Wright gets all his money, the Wilpons get 80% back. It's very unlikely that a straight negotiation would get the Wilpons 80% of their money back - so, Wilpons get the best deal if Wright keeps trying.

Now, maybe Wright really wants to come back and there never was a "You keep trying and we'll keep you on the roster" closed door conversation. But it wouldn't shock me if there was.

Bottom line, it would cost the Wilpons a lot of money to cut Wright, so they probably won't explore that anytime soon, so we effectively have 39 spots on the roster every winter. On Wright's side, I believe he's on the up and up and he wants to try to return.

Also this


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:29 pm 
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I appreciated Bruce this year, but I think there are better allocations of money.

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