MESSAGE BOARDS TOOLS:  Search | Members | User Control Panel |   | Login 


All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]

Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 452 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 ... 38  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:27 am 
User avatar
Online
Legend of NYFS

Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:11 am
Posts: 21112
Location: NYC
Yeah, I think broadly, they will plan to have the pen cover 3.5 innings per game. That accumulates to approx 550 (or more) innings. You need to have about 10 competent RPers to make that work. So that means bullpen depth has to be the key to make it work.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:39 am 
Offline
Franchise Player

Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:30 pm
Posts: 3447
HeyNowHK wrote:
Yeah, I think broadly, they will plan to have the pen cover 3.5 innings per game. That accumulates to approx 550 (or more) innings. You need to have about 10 competent RPers to make that work. So that means bullpen depth has to be the key to make it work.


This makes perfect sense. However, my objection is if they go all in and allocate the majority of their resources on pitching, the lineup is still going to be bad and it won't make enough of a difference. Unless the goal is to be a .500 team. Then, sure.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:19 am 
User avatar
Online
Legend of NYFS

Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:11 am
Posts: 21112
Location: NYC
slugox wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Yeah, I think broadly, they will plan to have the pen cover 3.5 innings per game. That accumulates to approx 550 (or more) innings. You need to have about 10 competent RPers to make that work. So that means bullpen depth has to be the key to make it work.


This makes perfect sense. However, my objection is if they go all in and allocate the majority of their resources on pitching, the lineup is still going to be bad and it won't make enough of a difference. Unless the goal is to be a .500 team. Then, sure.

Well, I do think that their top 50 or so prospects are dominated by RPs at the moment, so the plan (if this really is their thinking) seems to be underway.

Anyway it's not a huge revelation to have a strong pen. I think that was always true. The increasing belief that SPers are less effective the deeper they go into the game is also not an enormous revelation either, but data on this is driving the narrative. But again, this is a generalization of the data. If a team had 3 or 4 SPers who were capable of throwing 7+ innings per start effectively, then that reduces the pen load. It's not rocket science and as RP salaries increase due the demand, the financial implications of this strategy will even out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:57 am 
User avatar
Online
Legend of NYFS

Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:56 pm
Posts: 59192
dragonfly wrote:

This is partly what set up the Mets 2017 for failure. We were in mid-May and starters were averaging 5 innings a game and the bullpen was shot. You just can't expect 8 guys (or spots, since the guys will rotate in and out) to cover 600-650 innings.


You have to appreciate the irony of this "strategy" morphing from "Terry is an idiot and overworks his guys" to "Analytics-driven new wave thinking", though, right?? I do.

The big thing that no one is mentioning though is, even if they shore up the front end, who is confident in Ramos/Familia at the back end? The bullpenning idea sort of falls apart when the two stoppers- which the whole plan is just designed to get to - throw a million and a half pitches each outing. We don't exactly have Kenly Jansen ready to throw 10 cutters and say "g'nite" even if HanPauChasJosh RobSewBradSmoker get us there.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:16 pm 
Online
Legend of NYFS

Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:09 am
Posts: 11660
Location: Somebody's stolen my avatar
slugox wrote:

This makes perfect sense. However, my objection is if they go all in and allocate the majority of their resources on pitching, the lineup is still going to be bad and it won't make enough of a difference. Unless the goal is to be a .500 team. Then, sure.


Kind of like putting lipstick on a pig. Don't fix the lineup, don't fix the starting pitching, just fix the bullpen, because . . . the Royals had a good bullpen? They also had good starters and a good lineup.

The Mets starters: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/st ... /league/nl

Relief pitchers: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/st ... /league/nl

The starters were a little bit worse.

_________________
"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:22 pm 
Offline
NYFS Hall of Famer

Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:27 am
Posts: 5732
We had some really bad injury luck with the pitching last year. I think shoring up the bullpen could go a long way. However, the lineup is guaranteed right now to be significantly worse than last year, and with Conforto a question mark it could be really really bad. We need a middle of the order bat pretty badly.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:09 pm 
User avatar
Online
Legend of NYFS

Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:11 am
Posts: 21112
Location: NYC
Slow times...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:07 pm 
Offline
Franchise Player

Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:30 pm
Posts: 3447
hotlyds87 wrote:
We had some really bad injury luck with the pitching last year. I think shoring up the bullpen could go a long way. However, the lineup is guaranteed right now to be significantly worse than last year, and with Conforto a question mark it could be really really bad. We need a middle of the order bat pretty badly.


Coupled with a near the middle of the order bat.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:00 pm 
Online
Legend of NYFS

Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:09 am
Posts: 11660
Location: Somebody's stolen my avatar
I think Matz, Wheeler, Gsellman, Lugo, Harvey all have sufficient injury and other questionmarks that signing a starter is the top priority. Maybe 1 or 2 of those guys ends up helping the pen and that's fine.

and the roster needs at least some beefing up. How they do everything with a budget of 30 million (or less) . . . just gotta wait and see Sandy to his magic. But I wouldn't put the pen first or spend the most there. imho.

_________________
"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:09 pm 
Online
Rookie

Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 10:07 am
Posts: 676
is Sandy anywhere on record as saying that he has $30MM to spend this offseason? Or is this just "fake news?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:43 pm 
Online
Legend of NYFS

Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:09 am
Posts: 11660
Location: Somebody's stolen my avatar
Disco Ball wrote:
is Sandy anywhere on record as saying that he has $30MM to spend this offseason? Or is this just "fake news?"


Sandy's said that payroll will be cut. (from 156 million last year).

That suggests 30 might be about the ceiling and 20-25 is also possible. Various writers have thrown out the 30 number. I wouldn't call that fake news, I'd call it an educated guess, perhaps an optimistic educated guess.

When you add up the arb, the 10 or so rookie contracts and the confirmed contracts it comes to about 120 right now (Cots says 120.6, I've seen people estimate as high as 123). 30 is right at the ceiling that still cuts salary and might be pushing it. 25 might be a better guess.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 5I/pubhtml

They could sign players to a 2 year deals, 6 million in 2018, 15 million in 2019 or with buyouts or player optouts and work around that way, but that only goes so far before 2019 is full. I think it's going to be tight fit this off season with some bargain hunting.

_________________
"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:53 pm 
Offline
NYFS Hall of Famer

Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 12:17 pm
Posts: 5661
Doesn't seem like much help is coming this winter.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 452 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 ... 38  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: chinabox, Disco Ball, Google Adsense [Bot], HeyNowHK, jdawginsc, Joefrompgh, LTKfRGM, luciferase, MarkJohnson>You, Metro2007, Mogriffjr, piazzafan, SergioTheLittleMan, SNESandMets, Spacetraveler, Yahoo [Bot], yalikeMetroplitans and 112 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group


SUPPORT NYFS VIA OUR NETWORK OF SITES: FIND AN AA MEETING | FIND A JOB NEAR YOU | SUICIDE DEPRESSION ADDICTION HELP | BOOK REVIEWS EDITORIAL | LOCAL DOCTORS HOSPITAL EMERGENCY CARE | HOME REPAIR CONTRACTOR BUILDER AC HEAT | LOCAL LIVE MUSIC OPEN MIC JAM | FIND YOUR CONGRESSMAN AND WHERE TO VOTE | WOMEN VETERANS HELP SUPPORT AND RESOURCES | THE SOULCIALISTS LIVE LOCAL PIANO MUSIC TREASURE COAST | PET FRIENDLY PARKS HOTELS | SOLAR WIND RENEWABLE POWER | FILE TAX RETURN ATTORNEY | 4G SEO SMART PHONES TABLET WEB | BIRTHDAY PARTY RENTAL CHARACTERS | HOMES APARTMENTS FOR SALE OR RENT NEAR YOU | SPORT COURT GYM FITNESS CLUB TRACK FIELD | GOLF BEACH RESORT HOTELS RESTAURANTS BED BREAKFAST | HEALTH LIFE AUTO HOME INSURANCE QUOTE | METRO BUS TRAIN SUBWAY AIRPORT HELIPORT | VETERAN TIPS CRAFT DIY RECIPES | ATM BRANCH CONSOLIDATION STUDENT CREDIT LOAN RATES | LOCAL NEWS AND RSS FEEDS | CHRISTMAS BLACK FRIDAY BACK TO SCHOOL SALE | LATEST E NEWS ON MOVIES TV GAMES GIFTS BOOKS | LAST MINUTE ANNIVERSARY BIRTHDAY HOUSE WARMING GIFTS NEAR YOU | LOCAL ARTS CRAFTS SUPPLY STORE | LOCAL HEALTHY HEART DIABETIC RESTAURANTS AND STORES | CHURCH TEMPLE MOSQUE OR PLACE OF WORSHIP NEAR YOU | LOCAL LINKS TO RESTAURANTS AIRPORTS DRUG STORES | DRUG OXY OPIATE ALCOHOL PHYSICAL REHAB | SUICIDE HOTLINE DANIELLE COLBERT PHOTO MUG SHOT | © Untraditional Media

The%20Soulcialists