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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 9:28 pm 
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I'm going to take a multi perspective approach, and as everyone knows, I am Team Dom...

I love having three potential solid guys at first coming through the minors. Try them one by one until you have the guy that produces at the ML level.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 9:50 pm 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Alonso has slightly more experience in AA than Conforto did at this point, and Alonso has performed considerably better. I don't think it would be totally unreasonable to call up Alonso right now, although I would wait until around July.


Not that this should necesarily be taken into account with a promotion of Alonzo.

But if you did jump him over Smith I think you really diminish Dom's value in a trade.


I think the only thing that really has any effect on Smith's value is Smith's performance.

You could argue that us signing Gonzalez already did a bunch to hurt Smith's value, but if Smith was mashing in Vegas, it wouldn't really matter.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 11:20 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
You could argue that us signing Gonzalez already did a bunch to hurt Smith's value, but if Smith was mashing in Vegas, it wouldn't really matter.


Yup. With Alonso being 6 months older than Smith, if Alonso performs and Smith doesn't, he has to pass him on the depth chart eventually. It's kind of what you expect with a good college prospect. They don't need as many minor league PA as the HS guys. I don't know that Alonso has passed him yet, but if the numbers look like this another month from now.....


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 4:38 am 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
I don't think you got his point.

I think he was saying that the prospects we don't know (Alonso) seem more valuable than the ones we do know (Smith), and that their value decreases once we know them.


Yes. And the prospects we do know who perform like crap in their callups value decreases more than the prospects we know who don't perform like crap in their call up. Unless we're project Alonso to perform at Smith's level in his first 200 AB, I'm not sure how this point is relevant.

Smith had a small chance and did really really poorly in that chance and has done poorly back in the minors since then. This has nothing to do with the mythical intrigue of the unknown prospect.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 6:22 am 
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.293 is poorly?


8)

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Whatever.

8)


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 7:40 am 
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Hate when the pro-Alonso talk somehow deteriorates to anti-Dom talk. Like in Highlander, there can be only one, but if both end up deserving a call-up its a good problem to have.

Overall I feel like Dom has taken some undeserved crap so far this year. He has a great year at the minors highest level in 2017, comes to the majors and struggles for a team that was flatlining and lacked leadership, but does flash the homerun swing we've all been waiting for (likely a little too often for his own good), then his spring training ends before it starts, and pushes back a notoriously slow starter even further back. Alonso deserves the lead in this race right now, but I don't think it's a runaway.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 8:33 am 
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From the scouting types here what's the matchup of talents for Alonso and Smith?


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 9:34 am 
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R Nitelight wrote:
.293 is poorly?


8)


He's mirroring Matt Den Dekker's production currently. Lets not gloss over the secondary skills, especially from 1B.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 9:36 am 
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jdawginsc wrote:
I'm going to take a multi perspective approach, and as everyone knows, I am Team Dom...

I love having three potential solid guys at first coming through the minors. Try them one by one until you have the guy that produces at the ML level.


My issue with this approach is that while Dom might have an opportunity to be solid/good, Alonso has an opportunity to be really special. Even if Dom sticks you should probably be looking to use him as a chip to get the truly monster bat in the lineup.

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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 10:42 am 
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R Nitelight wrote:
.293 is poorly?


8)


No but 2 homers in the PCL is.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 11:47 am 
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TomInNC wrote:
From the scouting types here what's the matchup of talents for Alonso and Smith?

First, Smith is a 6' 0" LHB, Alonso a 6' 3" RHB. Smith has more quickness and better hands. I've never thought he was quite as good as advertised defensively, but still looks he could be above average defensively at 1B. Alonso is more fringy defensively.

Offensively, Smith has been thought to have the slightly better hit tool. But Alonso has the edge in power. Coming into the season, mlb.com had Smith graded at 50 power and Alonso at 55. but the gap is looking larger than that, now. And the hit tools are starting to look pretty near equal as well.

So overall, Smith is the more well rounded guy. Runs better, and will play better defense. But at 1B, the most important thing is still the bat. And if Smith ends up with 45 power (12-15 HR) and Alonso with 60 power (25 HR), both looking pretty realistic right now, Alonso at that point looks like the better player.


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 Post subject: Re: Alonso watch thread
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 11:56 am 
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Smith doesn't run better. He has better hands/reactions than Alonso but Alonso definitely runs better.

And I don't know that Smith actually has the better hit tool. That was definitely the original scouting report, yes, but in actuality Alonso has hit for average and contact everywhere, and scouts are coming around on his hit tool.

I think the difference in hit is negligible at this point and Alonso has an obvious advantage in power. Smith is a more polished fielder but I don't know what his ceiling really is there with his athletic limitations (he'll never be rangy). Alonso definitely has work to do to even be passable at first but we talk about 1B defense like Lucas Duda wasn't eventually passable there with enough reps. Alonso has work to do, but this isn't a position like SS or CF where if you don't have the tools, you just don't have the tools -- I'm sure in a few years Alonso's defense will be fine there.


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