Post subject: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:09 pm
Rookie
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:36 pm Posts: 883
This season, Jacob DeGrom gave up a ridiculously low number of HRs - 10 in total, or 0.41 HR/9IP. In his previous seasons, he averaged 0.87 HR/9IP.
As reference points, the current active leader in HR/9IP is Kershaw at 0.62. DeGrom's Cy Young competition (yeah right) Scherzer and Nola gave up 0.94 and 0.75 respectively this season.
If Degrom gave up HRs at his previous rate, he would have allow 11 more HRs this season (21 total). Assuming each HR is worth two runs (I have no idea if this is correct), he would have given up 22 more runs this season. His ERA would have been a stellar but not otherworldly 2.61.
So, long story short, how sustainable is such a drastic drop in HRs allowed? Should we expect Jake to be closer to his previous career average in HR allowed or this season's stellar number. Does anyone who knows more about pitching than me know if Jake made changes that have contributed to him halving his HR rate?
Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:06 pm
Manager
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2009 4:25 pm Posts: 6350
He's already an ace, it seems this year he was on another level. I don't remember his last "bad" start! I'd honestly would expect a year between this and his career norms just to be safe but dude is in the prime of his career. Pay him!
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Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:13 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:11 am Posts: 31274 Location: NYC
bygranddesign wrote:
I find it interesting also
He went from giving up 28 homers over 200 innings last season (16% hr/fb rate) to 10 in 217 innings (6.3% hr/fb rate)
It doesn't sound sustainable. I can see the rate go back up to 10% (which would be in line with overall career numbers)
There wasn't some huge shift in peripherals
Everything was just a little better .. little better k-rate, little better walk rate, little better groundball rate
But the hard hit rate went down pretty good 31 to 26%
and the shift in FB/HR rate was very big as said already .
and i'm not sure either of those you can count on going that well again next season
He's benefitting from the league shift in approach that has everyone trying to get under everything. As he continues to go up in the zone, he's getting tons more swing and miss... 50% more than he got just 2 yrs ago (2016).
Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:58 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 25134 Location: Harlem
He had one of the best seasons in the game since the mound was lowered and largely did it on the back of keeping balls in the ballpark. Specifics of how he did it aside, regression should be assumed.
_________________ Baseball has a way of ripping your ❤️ out, stabbing it, putting it back in your chest, then healing itself just in time for Spring Training. - Thor
Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:11 am
Practically A Wilpon
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2006 12:59 pm Posts: 9573 Location: Land of the Nats and Redskins
You keep hearing about how he is pitching inside much more often and elevating the ball. I wonder how much that has played into things. If his overall approach has shifted, regression is expected but perhaps not to his career average.
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