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 Post subject: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:09 pm 
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This season, Jacob DeGrom gave up a ridiculously low number of HRs - 10 in total, or 0.41 HR/9IP. In his previous seasons, he averaged 0.87 HR/9IP.

As reference points, the current active leader in HR/9IP is Kershaw at 0.62. DeGrom's Cy Young competition (yeah right) Scherzer and Nola gave up 0.94 and 0.75 respectively this season.

If Degrom gave up HRs at his previous rate, he would have allow 11 more HRs this season (21 total). Assuming each HR is worth two runs (I have no idea if this is correct), he would have given up 22 more runs this season. His ERA would have been a stellar but not otherworldly 2.61.

So, long story short, how sustainable is such a drastic drop in HRs allowed? Should we expect Jake to be closer to his previous career average in HR allowed or this season's stellar number. Does anyone who knows more about pitching than me know if Jake made changes that have contributed to him halving his HR rate?


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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:06 pm 
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He's already an ace, it seems this year he was on another level. I don't remember his last "bad" start! I'd honestly would expect a year between this and his career norms just to be safe but dude is in the prime of his career. Pay him!

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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:08 pm 
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I find it interesting also

He went from giving up 28 homers over 200 innings last season (16% hr/fb rate) to 10 in 217 innings (6.3% hr/fb rate)

It doesn't sound sustainable. I can see the rate go back up to 10% (which would be in line with overall career numbers)

There wasn't some huge shift in peripherals

Everything was just a little better .. little better k-rate, little better walk rate, little better groundball rate

But the hard hit rate went down pretty good 31 to 26%

and the shift in FB/HR rate was very big as said already .

and i'm not sure either of those you can count on going that well again next season


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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:13 pm 
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bygranddesign wrote:
I find it interesting also

He went from giving up 28 homers over 200 innings last season (16% hr/fb rate) to 10 in 217 innings (6.3% hr/fb rate)

It doesn't sound sustainable. I can see the rate go back up to 10% (which would be in line with overall career numbers)

There wasn't some huge shift in peripherals

Everything was just a little better .. little better k-rate, little better walk rate, little better groundball rate

But the hard hit rate went down pretty good 31 to 26%

and the shift in FB/HR rate was very big as said already .

and i'm not sure either of those you can count on going that well again next season

He's benefitting from the league shift in approach that has everyone trying to get under everything. As he continues to go up in the zone, he's getting tons more swing and miss... 50% more than he got just 2 yrs ago (2016).


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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:47 pm 
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DeGrom is Greg Maddux intellect, plus an arm that is only getting better...velocity, movement.

The 29 starts in a row is one thing...two were shortened...but one stinker of 4ER, and every other start at or under 3 is astounding.

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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:51 pm 
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It should also be noted that most of the homers he's given up this year have been to scrubs, or guys he didn't need to drop the hammer on.


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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:59 pm 
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Just a bit more...eliminating the one inning start...

0 ER 9
1 ER 11
2 ER 5
3 ER 5
4 ER 1

1 IP 1, 4 IP 1, 5+ IP 1
6+ IP 6
7+ IP 12
8+ IP 10
9 IP 1

A telling stat is that he only had a few starts in which he did not finish an inning he started...

Random thought...Dom Smith data when he plays in deGrom start...

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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:57 pm 
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Some more numbers.

DeGrom led MLB in OPS against at .521. Wheeler was 10th at .611.

Post AS, the numbers get closer. .481 for DeGrom and .489 for Wheeler.


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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:58 pm 
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He had one of the best seasons in the game since the mound was lowered and largely did it on the back of keeping balls in the ballpark. Specifics of how he did it aside, regression should be assumed.

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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:59 pm 
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He's so easy to root for, in addition to the aceness...

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 Post subject: Re: Jacob DeGrom's exceptionally low HR/9IP
PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:11 am 
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You keep hearing about how he is pitching inside much more often and elevating the ball. I wonder how much that has played into things. If his overall approach has shifted, regression is expected but perhaps not to his career average.


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