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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 9:24 am 
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Legend of NYFS

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Dog wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Mogriffjr wrote:
Any word on Lockett?


Yes. He stinks.

He hasn't even pitched yet and he gets trashed. I would expect this sort of remark if the guy has thrown in a few games... one game..? But not at all??


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 9:35 am 
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Easy. I was just goofing around.

But in all seriousness, do we expect Lockett to come in here and be a difference-maker if he's called up?

And to be fair...he did pitch for SD last year, and I get it..small sample size...

9.60 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 15 IP, 22 H, 10 BB, 12 K, .333 BAA

He didn't exactly set the world on fire.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 9:44 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
sluger11787 wrote:

If that was the plan, Matz would be on the DL since it'd be more than 10 days between starts.


Maybe an official decision hasn't been made, but if Matz skips a start, he probably should have gone on the 10 day.

I think Mickey said he wants to pitch him Friday or Saturday if he can go. If not, then maybe a retroactive DL stint.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 10:10 am 
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Dog wrote:
Easy. I was just goofing around.

But in all seriousness, do we expect Lockett to come in here and be a difference-maker if he's called up?

And to be fair...he did pitch for SD last year, and I get it..small sample size...

9.60 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 15 IP, 22 H, 10 BB, 12 K, .333 BAA

He didn't exactly set the world on fire.

Who said anything about "difference-maker?" Seems like a strawman to me... he's merely SP depth... like the 8th or 9th in line. They would presumably have to get thru Font, Oswalt, Flexen, and prob Lugo before we'd see a Lockett start. So, no I don't expect Walker Lockett to come in and be a difference maker this season if he gets any starts.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 10:37 am 
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Dog wrote:
Easy. I was just goofing around.

But in all seriousness, do we expect Lockett to come in here and be a difference-maker if he's called up?

And to be fair...he did pitch for SD last year, and I get it..small sample size...

9.60 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 15 IP, 22 H, 10 BB, 12 K, .333 BAA

He didn't exactly set the world on fire.


Yeah, again, we don't have to be silly and ignore whats in front of us here. By the time some will be ready to conclude on the obvious, Walker Lockett will be on his 4th or 5th organization I think.

Sometimes the stuff slapping you across the face can be relied upon. He's got an FIP around 5 in AAA across parts of 3 seasons at that level, got smacked around in his 15 inning MLB cameo, the Padres essentially DFA'ed him. Could he have a surprise little run in him? Sure, in the way that Chris Flexen or Corey Oswalt or Drew Gagnon could too. But he's no better than those guys. Trying to draw some distinction there is getting too cute. He's the same profile.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 11:02 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Dog wrote:
Easy. I was just goofing around.

But in all seriousness, do we expect Lockett to come in here and be a difference-maker if he's called up?

And to be fair...he did pitch for SD last year, and I get it..small sample size...

9.60 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 15 IP, 22 H, 10 BB, 12 K, .333 BAA

He didn't exactly set the world on fire.


Yeah, again, we don't have to be silly and ignore whats in front of us here. By the time some will be ready to conclude on the obvious, Walker Lockett will be on his 4th or 5th organization I think.

Sometimes the stuff slapping you across the face can be relied upon. He's got an FIP around 5 in AAA across parts of 3 seasons at that level, got smacked around in his 15 inning MLB cameo, the Padres essentially DFA'ed him. Could he have a surprise little run in him? Sure, in the way that Chris Flexen or Corey Oswalt or Drew Gagnon could too. But he's no better than those guys. Trying to draw some distinction there is getting too cute. He's the same profile.

Oh man, some people love to be out front in trashing anyone who isn't an immediate star, wearing it like a badge of freaking honor. Come on. No one really knows how this one is going to turn out... not me, not anyone else. I'm not sitting here claiming that Lockett is some future rotation core piece. I'm saying that at least some in the industry have had him on top 30 lists as legit rotation depth. Aside from obvious top of rotation arms, this is where most middle and back of rotation arms bubble up from - that is, the fringes... Chris Bassitt, Trent Thornton, Spencer Turnbull, John Means, Caleb Smith, Shane Bieber, Zach Davies, Adrian Sampson, Erik Swanson, just to throw out a few names...


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 11:15 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
[ No one really knows how this one is going to turn out... not me, not anyone else.


This is a ridiculous statement. So the point is avoid making obvious statements until you can draw on hindsight?

Lets use this the other way - before you go ahead and celebrate Jeff McNeil, no one knows if he may never get a hit again. So lets avoid praising him because every day could just be the beginning of the end. After all, there were some in the industry who didn't think he was much of a prospect.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 11:35 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
[ No one really knows how this one is going to turn out... not me, not anyone else.


This is a ridiculous statement. So the point is avoid making obvious statements until you can draw on hindsight?

Lets use this the other way - before you go ahead and celebrate Jeff McNeil, no one knows if he may never get a hit again. So lets avoid praising him because every day could just be the beginning of the end. After all, there were some in the industry who didn't think he was much of a prospect.

No. The above is the exaggerated ridiculous statement. The comparison - to a player with 400 consistent ML PAs - is really off the wall. But ok, YOU know that Lockett will be garbage.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 11:36 am 
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Quote:
Aside from obvious top of rotation arms, this is where most middle and back of rotation arms bubble up from - that is, the fringes... Chris Bassitt, Trent Thornton, Spencer Turnbull, John Means, Caleb Smith, Shane Bieber, Zach Davies, Adrian Sampson, Erik Swanson, just to throw out a few names...


You play fantasy baseball don't you? :) Me, too.

Paxton went down with a knee issue, so I I just picked up Chris Bassitt.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 12:14 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
[ No one really knows how this one is going to turn out... not me, not anyone else.


This is a ridiculous statement. So the point is avoid making obvious statements until you can draw on hindsight?

Lets use this the other way - before you go ahead and celebrate Jeff McNeil, no one knows if he may never get a hit again. So lets avoid praising him because every day could just be the beginning of the end. After all, there were some in the industry who didn't think he was much of a prospect.

No. The above is the exaggerated ridiculous statement. The comparison - to a player with 400 consistent ML PAs - is really off the wall. But ok, YOU know that Lockett will be garbage.


I didn't say garbage. I said we don't have to pretend like we don't have 40ish starts at AAA with a 5 FIP staring at us in the face and say "I dunno man, he could be good, who knows!?" We can use our brains and draw inferences from the evidence we have, even if it doesn't comport to whatever your standard of definitiveness is.

I even allowed for a run of success much in the same vein that its not completely inconceivable that Oswalt, Flexen, Gagnon, etc., would have the same thing. But to act like WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT HE COULD BE is plainly disingenuous. If you want to play that game, then just be consistent with it and never conclude anything because there's always a possibility that performance moving forward diverges from what you've done in the past - that IS your point, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 12:31 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

This is a ridiculous statement. So the point is avoid making obvious statements until you can draw on hindsight?

Lets use this the other way - before you go ahead and celebrate Jeff McNeil, no one knows if he may never get a hit again. So lets avoid praising him because every day could just be the beginning of the end. After all, there were some in the industry who didn't think he was much of a prospect.

No. The above is the exaggerated ridiculous statement. The comparison - to a player with 400 consistent ML PAs - is really off the wall. But ok, YOU know that Lockett will be garbage.


I didn't say garbage. I said we don't have to pretend like we don't have 40ish starts at AAA with a 5 FIP staring at us in the face and say "I dunno man, he could be good, who knows!?" We can use our brains and draw inferences from the evidence we have, even if it doesn't comport to whatever your standard of definitiveness is.

I even allowed for a run of success much in the same vein that its not completely inconceivable that Oswalt, Flexen, Gagnon, etc., would have the same thing. But to act like WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT HE COULD BE is plainly disingenuous. If you want to play that game, then just be consistent with it and never conclude anything because there's always a possibility that performance moving forward diverges from what you've done in the past - that IS your point, right?

My point is that this is pretty superficial analysis. Not only have you most likely never seen Lockett pitch once, but you are dismissing other + factors in order to focus on ERA/FIP from the freakin PCL. But it's fine if you're bar is top of the rotation SPer. I have no issue concurring that Lockett has virtually no future as a top of the rotation starter, so let's start with that common ground, eh?

Where we deviate, is that I don't really give a crap about PCL ERA. Seth Lugo was also crap by that standard. And as I recall, Lugo was flambeed by people here as a fringy sideshow arm at best also. I don't know how the Walker Lockett story is going to play out, but I do know that he (was a 4th rd pick) had some success running thru the Pads system in 2016 at 22 and has gotten some recent prospect attention as a legit depth option for 2 teams with pretty highly regarded rotations. I'm saying this is definitely the sort of arm I would want to see a few times (at least) before dismissing. And I'm also quite sure this is the type of arm that no one should expect to be an overnight success. Few are.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets acquire RHP Wilmer Font from Rays
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 1:12 pm 
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Yeah, still not really finding myself agreeing with your approach. Once again, raising Seth Lugo I guess is an attempt to bring another example of "Sometimes, things work out differently than you might expect"?? I mean, yes, that of course happens. But the idea that if someone inferred that Seth Lugo - 30-something round pick, D3 Pitcher, mediocre minor leaguer - wasn't going to be much, thats not an unrealistic expectation. In fact, that was TOTALLY reasonable at the time. He has exceeded expectations - that is awesome. Other guys with pedigrees and minor league track records don't translate for whatever reason - wouldn't mean it would be unreasonable to EXPECT those guys to perform at the big league level. On that point, Chris Flexen - who got a larger bonus than Walker Lockett and has performed far better than he has at the minor league level - could be seen as someone who has failed to meet expectations. It happens.

Again, pointing out that sometimes things happen that are out of alignment with track records doesn't render people make reasonable inferences from the evidence we have useless.

You can chose to fit whatever perception you want to portray under the guise of "Sometimes things happen differently than we expect." That just seems far more "superficial" than relying on what we have and literally just opens up Pandora's Box to use anything to support your point - whether track records or pedigrees support it or not, it doesn't matter, because we don't know ANYTHING for sure. I prefer to be grounded based on what information we have. But whatever floats your canoe, man.


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