I agree but this could be a sign to come. In any case, I am willing to accept him on the roster but not for the price they are asking. Its my price or no price. Unless the mets are interested in Price (bays) then in that case, yes.

Dont mind me, Im on woozy medication

Fair enough, but parting with one legitimate mid-range prospect in exchange for Hernandez and a solid reliever is hardly overpaying.

which prospect would that be? Remember the team needs a good size upgrade to trade legit players. Honestly Reynolds is overrated (even though his away from coors numbers are good).

My philosophy is this

You never, ever, trade mid level anything for Middle RP. Never. At best, Reynolds is a middle reliever.

Middle Relief is done through FA/Minors

Unless the mets are trading for a Johan Santana in a big deal, then a middle relief in return is welcome. RP is too dang fickle and unreliable these days. Its a crap shoot.

I'd rather Edgin (be up) than trade for Reynolds. I just dont see anything special about him

If you're going to accuse a guy of being overrated, you really need to provide evidence as to why that's the case. I see a guy with roughly a strikeout per inning for his career and roughly a 3/1 K/BB ratio? What makes him overrated?

As for prospects, parting with a single one of the middle of the pack guys (Gorski, Tovar, Tapia, Leathersich, Vaughn, DeGrom) really isn't that big of a hit if you're getting back players who can help you immediately in the midst of a race.

A lot of crazy things being said in this thread. First off, those prospects are not alike. Tovar is a top 10 system prospect, who has a good chance of being a solid major league regular. The idea of trading him for a aging backup catcher is insane.

Leathersich, while not at the level of Tovar, also has an excellent chance to be a solid major league set up man, and would likewise be a poor trade choice for such a marginal player. Same thing for Tapia.

Vaughn? He's a real longshot to be a solid major league regular. Degrom is also a much lower ranked prospect. Those guys could go in this sort of a deal, but I agree with the notion that for such a marginal return you should be able to trade a ptbnl.

I think you missed the fact that I said including one of those guys in a deal for both Hernandez and either Belisle or Reynolds. By no means am I saying to trade any of them for Hernandez straight up. And yeah, as I said, if you're going to trade Tovar, you probably want to do it a year from now when you can sell him as a guy that can be immediately slotted in as a major league shortstop or second baseman.

I don't think anyone's really talking about anything more than that. I think Tovar might be the best name who has been discussed here.

As for Reynolds, he typically is used as a one inning pitcher. He has 37 innings in 39 appearances this year. And he has 3 decent pitches.

pitch mph pit% val/C
FB 89.5 52.3% -0.90
SL 79.2 29.2% +0.60
CH 82.1 16.2% -0.11

He's a lefty with an 89-90 mph fastball he throws half the time, a slider (his best pitch) he uses heavily, and an effective splitter used as a change up thrown more than 15% of the time. And he strikes out 23.3% of batters faced while walking only 7.3%. Basically similar to what you might hope Darin Gorski could be.

Over the last three years, he has also converted 21 holds in 25 opportunities, and allowed 26% of inherited runners to score (league average is around 30%). He also has only a 3.48 ERA (and a 3.74 RA; he doesn't allow unearned runs either). And the ERA estimators, SIERA and xFIP look like this:

year SIERA xFIP
2010 2.96 3.44
2011 3.20 3.63
2012 3.05 3.24

This is all with a tough home park for pitchers. Overall, that's an above average one inning reliever. You could easily hand this guy the 7th inning, and let Francisco and Parnell take the 8th and 9th.

As for Hernandez, is there any reason to think he won't have recovered from the hand injury? He had an .825 OPS before aggravating the left hand injury in early May.

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/mlb/282 ... -hernandez



He went 1 for 25 after returning and then ended up going on the DL to let it heal.

Also on park effects, not only has Reynolds been very consistent over the last three years, he as a 133 ERA+ in that time. That's about what Bobby Parnell has done for the Mets this year. So that 3.48 ERA really translates to about a 2.90 ERA for the Mets.

If anything, if he's being thrown in as a kind of "extra" and we're still talking essentially barely-if-at-all-prospects being the cost, he's a bit UNDERRATED due to the way he's used/viewed by Colorado, some effects, lack of Left-on-Left dominance, etc.

Certainly more so than the-guy-everyone-calls-underrated-and-a-good-target-but-that-would-probably-mean-he-winds-up-being-overrated-and-a-bad-target-because-thats-how-the-market-works, Matt Belisle.

If we traded one of those mid-level guys for Hernandez and Reynolds, I would be very happy (unless the mid-level guy was Tapia; I think he's going to jump into the elite category sooner rather than later).

Yeah, Belisle is certainly better. But he's also older and will cost $4M next year at age 33.

Reynolds is younger and under control through 2016. He hasn't been used in high leverage spots this year, but Colorado has a loaded pen this year.

Career splits for Reynolds:

avg OPS wOBA
.278 .842 .346 home
.177 .676 .286 road

Coors is really tough on a guy with a middling fastball who relies heavily on offspeed stuff. This guy has been really good outside of Coors, he'd probably thrive here. He's a flyball pitcher, definitely vulnerable to the HR, but gets a lot of swings and misses on the offspeed stuff.