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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:07 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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It's usually the other way around; hitters are preferred due to lower attrition.

I think you'd have to be absolutely crazy to turn down Duda/Harvey for Upton. He's a star; what exactly is Harvey? The Mets will be very lucky if he turns into an above average starter, let alone worth as much as Upton is. On Duda, as much as I love his bat, he's just not going to have much win value to an NL team as long as he plays the outfield. I'd do that deal 1000/1000 times, but it's too unrealistic to happen. Arizona is smarter than to dump their star for such a low level return.


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:11 pm 
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Everyday Player

Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2010 5:05 pm
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The generalization of never trading a pitcher for a bat makes no sense here. Justin Upton already has 15.8 career WAR and is 24 years old. We're lucky if Harvey has that his entire career.


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:17 pm 
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charliedvrs wrote:
The generalization of never trading a pitcher for a bat makes no sense here.

It never makes sense. Knowing attrition rates on arms, the theory is backwards.


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:20 pm 
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jamaicanjetfan wrote:
The next 10 games are crucial for Jason Bay


:lol:

Hey, where the heck is Lastings Milledge anyway?


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:12 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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nmigliore wrote:
It's usually the other way around; hitters are preferred due to lower attrition.

I think you'd have to be absolutely crazy to turn down Duda/Harvey for Upton. He's a star; what exactly is Harvey? The Mets will be very lucky if he turns into an above average starter, let alone worth as much as Upton is. On Duda, as much as I love his bat, he's just not going to have much win value to an NL team as long as he plays the outfield. I'd do that deal 1000/1000 times, but it's too unrealistic to happen. Arizona is smarter than to dump their star for such a low level return.


Especially when they just signed Lucas Duda to a three year deal in the offseason.

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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:19 pm 
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Veteran Presence

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I would deal Duda/Harvey a million times over for Justin Upton. Don't forget he's still only 24 years old and has plenty of upside.


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:31 pm 
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zaknim wrote:
I would deal Duda/Harvey a million times over for Justin Upton. Don't forget he's still only 24 years old and has plenty of upside.


For context, he's 18 days younger than Kirk Nieuwenhuis and 15 days younger than Matt den Dekker.

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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:39 pm 
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If Sandy went out and get Upton for a deal centered around Harvey and Duda with a few other prospects thrown in (Marte? Tovar? Tapia? Montero? A couple of those guys, I suppose?) I'd be ecstatic.

No clue how realistic that is, but Upton is a great fit this team and would give them a true right fielder and right handed bat (both of which they need) and could also be here for years.

Highly doubt it happens as not trading prospects seems like a priority of this regime at the moment, but sometimes you gotta suck it up and pull the trigger when an opportunity like this presents itself. I mean, we are talking about Upton (24) here, who's younger than some of the Mets current prospects (den Dekker and Havens off the top of my head). It's not like they would be be trading young guys and mortgaging the future for a 33-year-old rental player.

If anything, Upton would be a better bet to be a part of the Mets future than MANY of the prospects in the organization as he has already proved himself at this level.


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:47 pm 
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Blue Chipper

Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2010 10:19 pm
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Bottom line is the Mets are not trading for Justin Upton. The can't take on the 38 mil he is owed the next 3 seasons. They simply can't afford that. Also, if they were able to add that much money I would rather see the Mets sign a free agent outfielder instead of trading top prospects.


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:06 pm 
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Upton is only due $9.75M next year. I believe the Mets have a number of smaller guys coming off the payroll after the season like Rauch ($3.5M), Torres ($2.7M), Cedeno ($1.15M), Hairston ($1.1M) and Byrdak ($1M). That alone just about covers Upton's 2013 salary, and that's assuming they aren't willing or can't go much higher than they are now (which seems unlikely...I don't expect a huge increase back to $125M+ anytime soon, but creeping a little over $100M seems reasonable).

For the $14.25M he is owed in 2014 and 2015, well, by then Santana and Bay's huge contracts will be played out and money really shouldn't be an issue if they were to trade for Upton. Of course, this doesn't take into account re-signing Wright and Dickey, but nonetheless, I don't think $$$ as it pertains to Upton's relatively cheap contract (3 for 38 isn't bad at all, particularly for his talents) is nearly as big a deal as you make it out to be.


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:20 pm 
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Blue Chipper

Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:03 pm
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No brainer if it was Harvey and Duda for Justin. Hell, you could throw in Familia or Mejia and I still say it's a no brainer. :twisted:


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 Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:21 pm 
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Blue Chipper

Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2010 10:19 pm
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Byrdak and Hairston are likely to be back next year. Especially Hairston with the way he has hit in the 1st half.


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