!!!! You don't know yet what Harvey or Wheeler for that fact will contribute!!! Ryan Dempster (your Harvey comparison,) had a WAR in 2008 of 6.7. Higher anything your friend Mr. Upton ever put up in a single season.
Yeah, at age 31, in his third organization, ten years after making his major league debut. Prior to that he'd put up negative WAR values in four of nine years and had only cracked .3 WAR three times. That's why you do trade Harvey for Upton, not why you don't. Your argument inevitably leads to never giving up any prospect because you don't know what they might become.
Not any prospect. A "top" pitching prospect. You won't see me hanging on to a #3 starter if the deal is right.
_________________ A.B.N. Anybody But Nickeas!!!---CHECK! Uhh....maybe not so fast. :-(
B.G.A Bay Go Away!!!-- DISCOUNT DOUBLE CHECK!!!!!!!!!!!
N.M.N. NO MORE NICKEAS!!!!
Now if we can only get rid of the Wilpons and replaced them with Mark Cuban the STO master plan can be complete!
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14602 Location: Atlanta
Steve The Original wrote:
northway wrote:
Steve The Original wrote:
!!!! You don't know yet what Harvey or Wheeler for that fact will contribute!!! Ryan Dempster (your Harvey comparison,) had a WAR in 2008 of 6.7. Higher anything your friend Mr. Upton ever put up in a single season.
Yeah, at age 31, in his third organization, ten years after making his major league debut. Prior to that he'd put up negative WAR values in four of nine years and had only cracked .3 WAR three times. That's why you do trade Harvey for Upton, not why you don't. Your argument inevitably leads to never giving up any prospect because you don't know what they might become.
Not any prospect. A "top" pitching prospect. You won't see me hanging on to a #3 starter if the deal is right.
Tapia has the ceiling of a number two. Would you move him? I just don't see how you make a rule to never trade any pitching prospect, especially when given the attrition rate and how often pitchers take a long time in the majors before things click.
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
Not any prospect. A "top" pitching prospect. You won't see me hanging on to a #3 starter if the deal is right.
Tapia has the ceiling of a number two. Would you move him? I just don't see how you make a rule to never trade any pitching prospect, especially when given the attrition rate and how often pitchers take a long time in the majors before things click.
I would have to get another top pitching prospect back in the trade, or put him in a trade for an established top notch veteran pitcher. I just wouldn't do it for offense.
_________________ A.B.N. Anybody But Nickeas!!!---CHECK! Uhh....maybe not so fast. :-(
B.G.A Bay Go Away!!!-- DISCOUNT DOUBLE CHECK!!!!!!!!!!!
N.M.N. NO MORE NICKEAS!!!!
Now if we can only get rid of the Wilpons and replaced them with Mark Cuban the STO master plan can be complete!
This staff isn't as great as people think it is. At some point the Mets need to develop hard throwers. There is a reason why the Mets disintegrate after the all star break every year. They don't have hard throwers in their rotation that can get away with mistakes. You add in the fact that they only have one hard thrower in the pen (at least until Francisco gets back), it could get ugly the next few months.
If the Dbacks were dumb enough to offer Upton for Harvey, Duda, and a prospect, you make that trade instantly.
Upton was an MVP candidate last year at the age of 23. Harvey looks like a middle of the rotation starter to me, and Duda is a fun player, but isn't anywhere near Upton's league.
It seems like Upton's WAR over the previous 3 years were boosted significantly by his defense. I think he's a very good defensive player ... but defensive stats aren't reliable or very predictive, imo. So i just think we need to look at all the components that went into his WAR number .. before you start to believe he can repeat those numbers.
I think Justin Upton is a great player and at 24 years old - he most likely has some awesome years ahead of him ... but I do think he does have some flaws offensively that might prevent him from putting up monster numbers on a consistent year to year basis like most great sluggers are able to do. And if he slips defensively .... and it shows up in the WAR equation .. he might have some years where he doesn't quite look like a WAR superstar.
Having said that, I would have no problem giving up Harvey, Duda and a B prospect for J Upton. I love Harvey and I think he has a chance to be a good #2 starter ... but there is less risk in a position player (and proven player) like Upton and he is also signed for a couple years at a good price.
I'd go as much as Harvey, Duda and a couple of B prospects (Marte, Tovar, Montero types). Keeping Wheeler in any potential trade for Upton would be huge.
Post subject: Re: How many teams can say they're getting back a Jason Bay?
Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:59 pm
Fan Favorite
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2010 2:22 am Posts: 1817
jdawginsc wrote:
My question continues to be, "why is he available...?" One year removed from a .900 OPS year at age 23, with a contract that is so unbelievably friendly it hurts.
If he is available it means one of two things...one, he is damaged goods; or two, they are completely trying to reload their entire lineup with the one trade (not a bad idea).
If one, due diligence is important. If two, expect the price tag to be Harvey, Wilmer plus probably two of the Havens, Edgin, Duda, den Dekker ilk.
Joined: Sun Nov 26, 2006 3:56 pm Posts: 26119 Location: Danbury, CT
No Wheeler. Try like HELL to keep Fulmer out of it (he's gonna be GOOD), and Mejia.
Anyone else? Go for it.
Harvey, Familia, Duda, Marte, Tapia, Gee, whatever. Can call Mejia up to replace Gee in the rotation. Upton replaces Duda in RF. Trade MDD as well if they insist.
_________________
Locutus of Borg wrote:
I am Locutus of Borg. Resistance is futile. Your life, as it had been, is over. From this time forward, you will service, us.
No Wheeler. Try like HELL to keep Fulmer out of it (he's gonna be GOOD), and Mejia.
Anyone else? Go for it.
Harvey, Familia, Duda, Marte, Tapia, Gee, whatever. Can call Mejia up to replace Gee in the rotation. Upton replaces Duda in RF. Trade MDD as well if they insist.
Lol. Dudes getting lit up in the AAA bullpen. He's got about 5 guys ahead of him in line.
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