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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:55 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
How many analytical guys do you need?

Isn't it just analyzing data?

Shouldn't quality be prioritized over quantity?


8)


To a degree, but I personally have found that a lot of the best work happens from the interchange of ideas, so the team dynamic matters. A lot of baseball analytics are essentially data mining, and there are a ton of different ways to approach the same question in that field. As such, it makes sense to have a team with different specializations that can bounce ideas off of each other to find the best answer possible. This goes double when you're analyzing on the fly, which is going to be necessary when in trade discussions and/or on draft day.

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:46 pm 
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northway wrote:
R Nitelight wrote:
How many analytical guys do you need?

Isn't it just analyzing data?

Shouldn't quality be prioritized over quantity?


8)


To a degree, but I personally have found that a lot of the best work happens from the interchange of ideas, so the team dynamic matters. A lot of baseball analytics are essentially data mining, and there are a ton of different ways to approach the same question in that field. As such, it makes sense to have a team with different specializations that can bounce ideas off of each other to find the best answer possible. This goes double when you're analyzing on the fly, which is going to be necessary when in trade discussions and/or on draft day.


I'm thinking that they should invest in both...college scouting is not doing well.

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:26 pm 
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I don't know. To me, it seems pretty easy: Get good talent, you usually win. Get lousy talent, you usually lose. The Mets have had effective talent twice since 2008. Everything else has been wandering through the desert.

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:05 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
northway wrote:
R Nitelight wrote:
How many analytical guys do you need?

Isn't it just analyzing data?

Shouldn't quality be prioritized over quantity?


8)


To a degree, but I personally have found that a lot of the best work happens from the interchange of ideas, so the team dynamic matters. A lot of baseball analytics are essentially data mining, and there are a ton of different ways to approach the same question in that field. As such, it makes sense to have a team with different specializations that can bounce ideas off of each other to find the best answer possible. This goes double when you're analyzing on the fly, which is going to be necessary when in trade discussions and/or on draft day.


I'm thinking that they should invest in both...college scouting is not doing well.


Sorry I wasn't clear, I meant on an analytics team it's not just a matter of having one guy crunching data. A lot of the value from data analysis comes from having a smart team working through a given issue to determine what they're really seeing. There's a misconception that data simply "is" and there's a certain way to extract it (which seemed to be what Nitey was getting at), but the reality is more complicated.

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:38 pm 
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Stuff like this is why the Mets will never win, sadly.

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:38 pm 
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The only "analytical" thing I can recall the Mets doing was valuing Seth Lugo (when he looked like a AAAA guy) because of the spin rate on his CB.

What else was really "analytical"?

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:56 pm 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:
The only "analytical" thing I can recall the Mets doing was valuing Seth Lugo (when he looked like a AAAA guy) because of the spin rate on his CB.

What else was really "analytical"?


My impression of this regime has been that it's heavy on data analysis, but the techniques it uses are about two decades old both in baseball and real-world terms. Moneyball-style stat scouting (i.e. the really basics stuff) seems to dominate a lot of drafting decisions, particularly in the college ranks. They don't seem to delve particularly deeply into advanced analytics, particularly the statcast type of stuff which requires more advanced analytics and probably a larger team.

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:56 pm 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:
The only "analytical" thing I can recall the Mets doing was valuing Seth Lugo (when he looked like a AAAA guy) because of the spin rate on his CB.

What else was really "analytical"?


Exit velocity?

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:18 pm 
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The truth of the matter is (if this is even a real story) that if by 'analytical' Fred means that the team had become too much beholden to Sandy's philosophy of power pitching and power hitting with little regard for anything else like the ability to manufacture runs, running the bases, or playing defense, then yes he's right and they had become 'too analytical'. Whatever it is they became in recent years (and pretty much throughout the Alderson reign), they had become 'too much' of to the point of it all going way off the rails.

So, while no one has any idea what 'analytical' happens to mean in this context, but if one thinks of Alderson as one of the pioneers of the analytical movement in MLB, then one could theoretically make the case that the Mets had gone far too in the tank for the Alderson philosophy and in that context, it definitely does need to be pulled back onto the tracks.


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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:59 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
northway wrote:
R Nitelight wrote:
How many analytical guys do you need?

Isn't it just analyzing data?

Shouldn't quality be prioritized over quantity?


8)


To a degree, but I personally have found that a lot of the best work happens from the interchange of ideas, so the team dynamic matters. A lot of baseball analytics are essentially data mining, and there are a ton of different ways to approach the same question in that field. As such, it makes sense to have a team with different specializations that can bounce ideas off of each other to find the best answer possible. This goes double when you're analyzing on the fly, which is going to be necessary when in trade discussions and/or on draft day.


I'm thinking that they should invest in both...college scouting is not doing well.


I'm thinking that they should divest in both...Fred & Jeff.

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:05 am 
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bygranddesign wrote:
It depends on what you are talking about

There are no purely analytical determination in whether you should or shouldn’t give a 16 year old Dominican kid a million dollars.

Pure Analytics is foolish in determining high school talent - You are not going to sign a HS kid with an 80mph fastball just because he has a 15k rate in some small town in Oklahoma.

Even in college and the minors you want to have a 50/50 mixture of scouting and stats in determining value.

If you went with pure stats you would have been justified in calling Justin Dunn close to a non-prospect last season.

Even in the majors is the stats going to tell you if a guy who put up bad numbers before undergoing TJS is worth signing because he was great 2 years ago?

Was it stats or scouting that would have predicted a pitcher like Wheeler would be blossoming into a great starter now?

There are so many factors that are simply impossible to quantify through statistics .... especially when it comes to evaluating young talent with no track record.


Analytics means a lot more than just looking at statictics...velocity, exit velocity, spin rate, defensive numbers, trends among high school/college players, etc. It's far more than just ERA and WHIP.

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 Post subject: Re: The Wilpons think the Mets are "too analytics-heavy"
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:33 pm 
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metsrule0423 wrote:
bygranddesign wrote:
It depends on what you are talking about

There are no purely analytical determination in whether you should or shouldn’t give a 16 year old Dominican kid a million dollars.

Pure Analytics is foolish in determining high school talent - You are not going to sign a HS kid with an 80mph fastball just because he has a 15k rate in some small town in Oklahoma.

Even in college and the minors you want to have a 50/50 mixture of scouting and stats in determining value.

If you went with pure stats you would have been justified in calling Justin Dunn close to a non-prospect last season.

Even in the majors is the stats going to tell you if a guy who put up bad numbers before undergoing TJS is worth signing because he was great 2 years ago?

Was it stats or scouting that would have predicted a pitcher like Wheeler would be blossoming into a great starter now?

There are so many factors that are simply impossible to quantify through statistics .... especially when it comes to evaluating young talent with no track record.


Analytics means a lot more than just looking at statictics...velocity, exit velocity, spin rate, defensive numbers, trends among high school/college players, etc. It's far more than just ERA and WHIP.


Right. I think the issue here is that Sandy's Mets have been very analytics dependent, but in their view they think OPS+ is an advanced statistic.

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